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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2023, Vol. 57 Issue (9): 1756-1765    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2023.09.007
土木工程、水利工程     
基于时空深度学习模型的数值降水预报后处理
郑超昊1(),尹志伟2,曾钢锋3,许月萍1,周鹏1,刘莉1,*()
1. 浙江大学 建筑工程学院,浙江 杭州 310058
2. 台州市水利局 浙江 台州 318000
3. 台州市水利水电勘测设计院有限公司 浙江 台州 318000
Post-processing of numerical precipitation forecast based on spatial-temporal deep learning model
Chao-hao ZHENG1(),Zhi-wei YIN2,Gang-feng ZENG3,Yue-ping XU1,Peng ZHOU1,Li LIU1,*()
1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2. Taizhou Water Resources Bureau, Taizhou 318000, China
3. Taizhou Water Resources & Hydropower Survey Designing Institute, Taizhou 318000, China
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摘要:

为了提高降水预报的精度和分辨率,以浙江省椒江流域为研究对象,使用CMA-CMORPH降水网格数据集和ECMWF数值降水预报产品,提出基于深度学习的降水后处理模型CNN-LSTM. 探讨在不同预报时效的后处理前后降水预报的精度变化,评估降水预报对典型暴雨事件的预报能力. 结果表明:CNN-LSTM能够显著提升原始降水预报的精度,均方根误差从6.0 mm下降为3.0 mm,相关系数从0.6上升至0.9. 2起台风事件后处理的降水预报在椒江流域逐6 h面雨量误差均不超过10%. 经过雨季后处理的TS评分集中于0.90;并且在各降水等级表现均好于后处理前,小雨TS评分从不足0.80提升至0.91,中雨的TS评分从不足0.50提升至0.60.

关键词: ECMWF时空后处理模型深度学习降水预报    
Abstract:

In order to improve the accuracy and resolution of precipitation forecasts, taking Jiaojiang river basin in Zhejiang province as a case study, a precipitation post-processing model with the deep learning (CNN-LSTM) was proposed by using CMA-CMORPH precipitation grid dataset and ECMWF numerical precipitation predictions. The accuracy of precipitation forecast before and after the post-processing for different lead times were explored and the ability of precipitation forecasts to predict typical rainstorm events was evaluated. Results showed that CNN-LSTM can significantly improve the accuracy of the raw precipitation forecasts, the root mean square error decreasing from 6.0 mm to 3.0 mm, and the coefficient correlation was improved from 0.6 to 0.9. After the post-processing of two typhoon events, the precipitation forecast error of 6-hour accumulated areal rainfall forecasts after post-processing in Jiaojiang river basin were confined within 10%. The TS score during rainy season after post-treatment was generally near 0.90. The TS score of light rain was increased from less than 0.80 to 0.91, and the TS score of moderate rain increased from less than 0.50 to 0.60.

Key words: ECMWF    spatio-temporal post-processing mode    deep learning    precipitation forecast
收稿日期: 2022-11-14 出版日期: 2023-10-16
CLC:  TV 125  
基金资助: 公共安全科技关键技术、装备研发及应用示范-基于大数据和人工智能的流域性洪水灾害预防预警关键技术和应用示范(2021C03017);浙江省自然科学基金“基于智能化参数分区和定量降水预报的椒江流域集合洪水预报研究”(LQ22E090004);基于多源信息和深度学习的台风暴雨洪水分布式预报预警研究(2023M733117)
通讯作者: 刘莉     E-mail: 22012252@zju.edu.cn;li_liu@zju.edu.cn
作者简介: 郑超昊(1998—),男,硕士生,从事水文与水资源研究. orcid.org/0009-0008-4463-2102. E-mail: 22012252@zju.edu.cn
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引用本文:

郑超昊,尹志伟,曾钢锋,许月萍,周鹏,刘莉. 基于时空深度学习模型的数值降水预报后处理[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2023, 57(9): 1756-1765.

Chao-hao ZHENG,Zhi-wei YIN,Gang-feng ZENG,Yue-ping XU,Peng ZHOU,Li LIU. Post-processing of numerical precipitation forecast based on spatial-temporal deep learning model. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2023, 57(9): 1756-1765.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2023.09.007        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2023/V57/I9/1756

图 1  椒江流域的流域分布、水系、降水格点数据示意图
图 2  CNN-LSTM的模型结构
降水等级 24 h 降水量 降水等级 24 h 降水量
小雨 0.1~9.9 暴雨 50.0~99.9
中雨 10.0~24.9 大暴雨 100.0~250.0
大雨 25.0~49.9 特大暴雨 >250.0
表 1  降水等级划分表
图 3  模型评估指标在所有格点不同预报时效后处理前、后的对比图
图 4  不同预报时效后处理前、后模型评估指标的空间分布图
图 5  模型评估指标在永安溪、始丰溪流域面雨量不同预报时效后处理前、后的对比图
降水分级 N
永安溪 始丰溪 平原区域
小雨 2652 2665 2645
中雨 91 82 98
大雨 13 11 17
暴雨 2 1 2
表 2  永安溪、始丰溪、平原区域降水分级累计出现频次
地域 NA NB NC TS
处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后
永安溪 2082 2488 423 196 257 78 0.754 0.900
始丰溪 2084 2502 431 191 247 69 0.755 0.906
平原 2076 2469 416 209 270 84 0.752 0.894
表 3  ECMWF预报产品后处理前、后雨季3个区域的TS评分项
图 6  ECMWF预报产品后处理前、后的等级累计降水TS评分对比图
图 7  2场台风72 h累计降水分布图
图 8  2场台风在3个区域的逐6 h面雨量对比图
台风 区域 RMSE/mm MAE/mm CC RB
处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后 处理前 处理后
2012年“海葵” 永安溪 14.08 1.32 11.41 0.81 0.37 0.99 ?0.852 ?0.085
始丰溪 17.59 1.57 11.41 0.94 0.36 0.99 ?0.879 ?0.072
平原区域 17.07 1.52 11.20 1.15 0.34 0.99 ?0.902 ?0.099
2015年“苏迪罗” 永安溪 24.34 2.11 19.01 1.64 0.51 0.99 ?0.931 ?0.081
始丰溪 27.11 2.51 18.88 1.85 0.49 0.99 ?0.931 ?0.092
平原区域 29.57 2.49 20.24 1.68 0.36 0.99 ?0.898 ?0.076
表 4  2场台风期间3个区域的模型评估指标
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