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Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (5): 1027-1036    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.012
    
Convolutional long short-term memory network based lithium battery life prediction and dynamic modeling
Xiaolong WANG1,2(),Jili TAO2,*(),Xiangxian ZHU3,Jianwei LIANG1,Daidai CHEN3,Zhitao LIU4
1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, 341099
2. School of Information Science and Engineering, NingboTech University, Ningbo 315100
3. Key Laboratory of Automotive Electronics Intelligentization of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp., Ningbo 315048
4. College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027
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Abstract  

To address the problem that traditional fixed-parameter models cannot adapt to battery aging processes, data-driven approaches were deeply integrated with physical model mechanisms, and a state-of-health (SOH)-based dynamic modeling method for lithium-ion batteries was proposed. Convolutional long short-term memory networks were employed to extract multi-scale features from battery time-series data, achieving high-precision SOH prediction. A second-order RC equivalent circuit model was constructed, and a forgetting factor recursive least squares method was adopted for online parameter identification. Random forest regression and Kalman filtering were introduced to realize dynamic updating of model parameters according to aging states. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves higher prediction accuracy and a more stable error distribution than the traditional fixed-parameter model across all battery aging stages. In the late aging stage, the proposed method improves the prediction performance of the dynamic model by approximately 80%, with a median error of 0.025 V, demonstrating significant advantages over the traditional model.



Key wordslife prediction      convolutional long short-term memory network      dynamic model      recursive least squares method      Kalman filter     
Received: 10 June 2025      Published: 06 May 2026
CLC:  TM 912  
Fund:  国家自然科学基金资助项目(62373321);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LMS25F030027);浙江省汽车电子智能化重点实验室开放课题资助(J20240708).
Corresponding Authors: Jili TAO     E-mail: yk12090202@163.com;taojili@nbt.edu.cn
Cite this article:

Xiaolong WANG,Jili TAO,Xiangxian ZHU,Jianwei LIANG,Daidai CHEN,Zhitao LIU. Convolutional long short-term memory network based lithium battery life prediction and dynamic modeling. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(5): 1027-1036.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.012     OR     https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2026/V60/I5/1027


基于卷积长短期记忆网络的锂电池寿命预测及动态建模

针对传统固定参数模型难以适应电池老化过程的问题,将数据驱动与物理模型机理深度融合,提出基于健康状态(SOH)的锂离子电池动态建模方法. 采用卷积长短期记忆网络从电池时序数据中提取多尺度特征,实现SOH高精度预测;构建二阶RC等效电路模型,采用带遗忘因子的递推最小二乘法进行参数在线识别;引入随机森林回归与卡尔曼滤波,实现模型参数随老化状态的动态更新. 实验结果表明,所提方法在电池老化各阶段均具有比传统固定参数模型更高的预测精度和更稳定的误差分布. 在电池老化后期,所提方法使动态模型的性能显著提升约80%,中位误差为0.025 V,相比传统模型具有显著优势.


关键词: 寿命预测,  卷积长短期记忆网络,  动态模型,  递推最小二乘法,  卡尔曼滤波 
Fig.1 System framework of lithium battery dynamic modeling based on battery health state prediction
Fig.2 Architecture diagram of convolutional long short-term memory network
Fig.3 Second-order RC equivalent circuit diagram
Fig.4 Performance parameter curves of convolutional long short-term memory network during training
模型RMSE/10?3MAPE/%O/min
CNN5.2700.540015
CNN+LSTM3.2670.316032
文献[7]1.5190.164095
文献[27]2.4680.280352
本研究1.8990.179038
Tab.1 Comparative analysis of prediction performance across different lithium battery life prediction models
Fig.5 Battery lifetime prediction curves of different lithium battery life prediction models
Fig.6 Parameter identification results for equivalent circuit model
方法MAE/mVRMSE/mV工况条件
FFRLS(λ=0.98)[31]0.2470.584DST工况
AFFRLS(λ=0.98)[31]0.2840.612FUDS工况
VFFRLS[33]0.5250.974FUDS工况
VFFRLS[34]0.3740.926DST工况
AFFRLS[35]0.3190.720DST工况
FFRLS(λ=0.98)本研究0.2260.537老化早期
FFRLS(λ=0.98)本研究0.2530.596老化后期
Tab.2 Error comparison of different parameter identification methods
参数敏感度rP值R2
$ {R}_{\mathrm{s}} $0.8750.888<0.0010.789
$ {R}_{1} $0.4560.971<0.0010.943
$ {R}_{2} $0.3200.848<0.0010.719
$ {C}_{1} $0.7200.988<0.0010.976
$ {C}_{2} $0.358?0.978<0.0010.956
Tab.3 Sensitivity analysis of equivalent circuit model parameters to battery state of health changes
Fig.7 Radar chart-based analysis of sensitivity and response intensity of equivalent circuit model parameters to battery state of health changes
参数QR
Rs6.0×10?75.4×10?6
R10.0050.032
C10.00300.003
R20.0050.003
C20.00250.001
Tab.4 Parameter setting of Kalman filter
Fig.8 Evolution curves of optimized equivalent circuit model parameters with battery state of health
模型CVADR/%
RsR1C1
FFRLS0.1850.2030.16745.8
FFRLS+RF0.1420.1560.12868.2
本研究0.0710.0890.07489.1
Tab.5 Ablation study results of different parameter optimization and update strategies
方法RMSE$ {t}_{\mathrm{inf}} $/ms
早期中期后期
PINN[12]0.0320.0480.15625
多时间尺度[36]0.0280.0520.1848
电化学特征[37]0.0350.0580.19812
本研究0.0250.0320.03815
Tab.6 Performance comparison of different prediction methods at various stages of battery state of health
Fig.9 Comparison chart of terminal voltage output between traditional fixed-parameter model and dynamic parameter model
Fig.10 Comparison of prediction errors between traditional fixed-parameter model and dynamic parameter model under different battery state of health
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