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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (6): 1196-1204    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.06.006
土木工程、交通工程     
建成环境对违法停车需求的非线性影响模型
刘柯良1,2(),陈坚3,*(),邱智宣4,张雨5,康波1,安萌1,申秀敏1,2
1. 重庆警察学院 交通管理工程系,重庆 401331
2. 重庆警察学院低空警务创新应用工程研究中心,重庆 401331
3. 重庆交通大学 智慧城市学院,重庆 400074
4. 重庆市公安局大渡口区分局交巡警支队,重庆 400084
5. 重庆市公安局江北区分局交巡警支队,重庆 400021
Nonlinear model of impact of built environment on illegal parking demand
Keliang LIU1,2(),Jian CHEN3,*(),Zhixuan QIU4,Yu ZHANG5,Bo KANG1,Meng AN1,Xiumin SHEN1,2
1. Department of Traffic Management Engineering, Chongqing Police College, Chongqing 401331, China
2. Chongqing Police College Low-Altitude Policing Innovation and Application Engineering Research Center, Chongqing 401331, China
3. School of Smart City, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China
4. Traffic Patrol Detachment of Dadukou Public Security Sub-bureau, Chongqing Public Security Bureau, Chongqing 400084, China
5. Traffic Patrol Detachment of Jiangbei Public Security Sub-bureau, Chongqing Public Security Bureau, Chongqing 400021, China
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摘要:

为了揭示违法停车的空间影响机理并提出针对性治理措施,基于研究区域2个月共41 344条电子警察抓拍数据,融合兴趣面(AOI)、兴趣点(POI)和路网信息,构建土地利用、交通供给与道路设计三维度建成环境指标体系. 采用粒子群优化–极端梯度提升(PSO-XGBoost)模型对不同时段违停数量与建成环境关系进行建模,利用Shapley加性解释(SHAP)方法进行解释. 结果表明,PSO-XGBoost在工作日8:00—9:00、12:00—13:00、18:00—19:00和22:00—23:00 4个时间段的拟合优度均超过90%,显著优于传统的机器学习模型. 不同时间段违停受建成环境因素影响存在明显差异,如早晚高峰主要受公共交通线路数量的影响,中午时段受餐饮POI和学校AOI影响,夜间受路外停车设施可达性的影响最大. SHAP交互效应揭示了违停的非线性与阈值特征,部分改善措施在超过特定区间后可能失效. 研究表明,应结合建成环境差异制定时段化与精细化的停车治理策略,以实现违停的有效管控.

关键词: 城市交通停车管理违法停车机器学习SHAP分析    
Abstract:

41 344 violation records collected over two months by electronic enforcement cameras in the study area were analyzed in order to uncover the spatiotemporal mechanism of illegal parking and propose targeted management strategy. Area of interest (AOI), point of interest (POI) and road network data were integrated to construct a built environment indicator system, encompassing land use, transportation supply and road design. A particle swarm optimization–extreme gradient boosting (PSO-XGBoost) model was applied to examine the relationship between parking violation and built environment factor across different time period. Model interpretation was conducted using Shapley additive explanation (SHAP). The PSO-XGBoost model achieved R2 exceeding 0.90 for four key time intervals on weekday (8:00—9:00, 12:00—13:00, 18:00—19:00 and 22:00—23:00), outperforming traditional machine learning model. The impact of built environment factor varies across time period. The number of public transit route is most influential during morning and evening peak. Restaurant POI and school AOI are more influential during midday. Accessibility of off-street parking facility is most critical at night. SHAP interaction effect reveals nonlinear and threshold characteristic, indicating that some countermeasures lose effectiveness once specific range is exceeded. These findings highlight the need to develop time-specific and area-specific parking management strategy that account for built environment heterogeneity, thereby supporting refined governance of illegal parking.

Key words: city traffic    parking management    illegal parking    machine learning    SHAP analysis
收稿日期: 2026-01-16 出版日期: 2026-05-06
CLC:  TP 393  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52472339);中国?东盟(广西)警学研究院研究课题资助项目(DMJXYB202512);重庆警察学院校级一流课程项目“交通工程”(jykc2502).
通讯作者: 陈坚     E-mail: liukeliang93@163.com;chenjian@cqjtu.edu.cn
作者简介: 刘柯良(1996—),男,讲师,博士,从事静态交通系统优化与设计研究. E-mail:liukeliang93@163.com
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引用本文:

刘柯良,陈坚,邱智宣,张雨,康波,安萌,申秀敏. 建成环境对违法停车需求的非线性影响模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(6): 1196-1204.

Keliang LIU,Jian CHEN,Zhixuan QIU,Yu ZHANG,Bo KANG,Meng AN,Xiumin SHEN. Nonlinear model of impact of built environment on illegal parking demand. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(6): 1196-1204.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.06.006        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I6/1196

图 1  违停研究区域
图 2  违法停车数据的采集流程
序号号牌种类违法日期违法时间违法地址
1小型汽车2023-01-0117:07:40金湾路太平洋影城路段违停
2小型汽车2023-01-0117:08:24松青路大渡口小学路段违停
3小型汽车2023-01-0117:09:04凤祥路北段华宇观澜华府路段违停
XX小型汽车2023-02-2823:23:52九中路路段违停
表 1  违法停车数据示例
图 3  AOI与POI数据类型
图 4  违停设备抓拍范围
图 5  沿街业态提取方法
指标最小值最大值均值VIF
商务住宅AOI面积$x_1 $10546.73582385.83305847.594.01
公司企业AOI面积$x_2 $0.00461242.1121542.192.90
购物服务AOI面积$x_3 $0.0099704.1913890.651.57
休闲娱乐AOI面积$x_4 $1012.1223124.878142.142.25
医疗AOI面积$x_5 $0.00452144.26134576.541.28
学校AOI面积$x_6 $0.00501316.1841359.142.18
公司企业POI数量$x_7 $1.0058.0023.232.51
休闲娱乐POI数量$x_8$0.0052.0012.234.20
餐厅POI数量$x_9 $3.00411.00123.137.46
购物服务POI数量$x_{10}$23.003324.00721.442.98
生活服务POI数量$x_{11}$5.00326.00104.796.26
路内停车设施距离$x_{12}$6.00994.00475.674.18
路外公共停车设施距离$x_{13} $0.00998.00494.394.04
公共交通线路数量$x_{14}$0.0010.002.312.89
距离市中心的距离$x_{15} $50.007100.002301.003.25
双向车道数量$x_{16}$2.008.004.522.74
是否具有中央分隔设施$x_{17}$0.001.000.477.07
是否具有人行护栏$x_{18} $0.001.000.517.35
表 2  样本描述性统计
图 6  不同预测场景下PSO中参数优化迭代过程
预测对象dηk剔除的
特征
R2MAERMSE
早高峰(8:00—9:00)
违停数量
40.10300$ {x}_{10} $,$ {x}_{17} $0.920.581.31
中午(12:00—13:00)
违停数量
70.20268$ {x}_{3} $,$ {x}_{10} $,$ {x}_{11} $0.910.531.44
晚高峰(18:00—19:00)
违停数量
20.05170$ {x}_{2} $,$ {x}_{5} $,$ {x}_{10} $0.920.561.42
夜间(22:00—23:00)
违停数量
30.06400$ {x}_{5} $,$ {x}_{10} $,$ {x}_{11} $0.950.391.17
表 3  不同预测场景下建成环境与违停数量建模结果
图 7  不同场景与方法下建成环境与违停数量建模结果的对比
图 8  工作日不同时段模型的SHAP解释分析
图 9  工作日晚高峰场景下区域土地利用属性的单变量SHAP图
图 10  工作日晚高峰场景下交通供给特征的单变量SHAP图
图 11  工作日晚高峰场景下道路设计特征的单变量SHAP图
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