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Usage prediction of shared bike based on multi-channel graph aggregation attention mechanism |
Fujian WANG( ),Zetian ZHANG,Xiqun CHEN,Dianhai WANG |
Institute of Intelligent Transportation Systems, College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China |
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Abstract A prediction method based on the multi-channel graph aggregated attention mechanism was proposed, to address the challenges of limited spatial scope, insufficient spatiotemporal information capture, and low accuracy in short-term bike-sharing demand prediction. Firstly, the city was divided into multiple bike-sharing virtual stations using a flow-adjusted virtual station partitioning method according to bike flows in different areas. A dynamic adjacency matrix was constructed using the origin-destination (OD) matrix between stations to form a bike-sharing graph network structure. Next, spatial information of stations across different time periods was captured via a multi-channel graph aggregation module, which was combined with a multi-head self-attention module to capture temporal correlations. Finally, a cross-attention mechanism, along with exogenous variables, was introduced to uncover potential relationships among various variables. Experiments conducted in Shenzhen and New York demonstrated that the model significantly outperformed other deep learning methods across various time periods and regions, maintaining stable and low prediction errors. The results confirmed that the dynamic adjacency matrix and the cross-attention mechanism integrating external features could effectively enhance the prediction accuracy of shared bike usage.
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Received: 29 November 2024
Published: 25 August 2025
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Fund: 国家自然科学基金重点资助项目 (52131202);国家自然科学基金重点资助项目 (72431009). |
基于多通道图聚合注意力机制的共享单车借还量预测
针对共享单车短期借还量预测中存在的空间范围小、模型时空信息捕捉能力不足及准确性有限等问题,提出基于多通道图聚合注意力机制的预测方法. 根据共享单车在不同区域的流量,采用基于流量调整的虚拟站点划分方法,将城市划分为多个共享单车虚拟站点,并以站点间的借还量矩阵构建动态邻接矩阵,形成共享单车图网络结构. 通过多通道图聚合模块捕捉不同时间段的站点空间信息,并结合多头自注意力模块捕捉时间相关性. 引入交叉注意力机制模块,结合外生变量,获取不同变量之间的潜在联系. 在深圳市和纽约市进行实验,结果表明,与其他深度学习方法相比,该模型在不同时间段和地区均表现出显著优势,保持了稳定且较低的预测误差,证明了动态邻接矩阵以及融合外部特征的交叉注意力机制模块能够有效提高共享单车借还量的预测准确率.
关键词:
共享单车,
多源数据,
深度学习,
虚拟站点划分,
动态邻接矩阵,
交叉注意力
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