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浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2024, Vol. 58 Issue (6): 1174-1184    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2024.06.008
土木工程、交通工程     
降雨诱发斜坡失稳风险的气象预警
严亮轩1(),张义顺2,龚泉冰1,刘谢攀1,朱浩濛2,殷坤龙1,*(),陈丽霞3
1. 中国地质大学（武汉） 工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074
2. 浙江省地质院 地质灾害防治所，浙江 杭州 310000
3. 中国地质大学（武汉） 地球物理与空间信息学院，湖北 武汉 430074
Meteorological warning for rainfall-induced slope instability risk
Liangxuan YAN1(),Yishun ZHANG2,Quanbing GONG1,Xiepan LIU1,Haomeng ZHU2,Kunlong YIN1,*(),Lixia CHEN3
1. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
2. Geological Hazard Prevention and Control Institute, Zhejiang Institute of Geosciences, Hangzhou 310000, China
3. Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
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摘要：

采用基准阈值和阈值调整方案构建斜坡尺度的降雨诱发斜坡失稳风险的气象预警模型，开展精细化滑坡风险管理. 采用降雨强度-持续时间模型确定基准阈值；分析斜坡地质环境特征，从斜坡几何结构、岩土抗剪强度、水文地质条件、植被等方面选取调整因子，并确定基准斜坡；针对降雨入渗过程分析地质环境变化造成的斜坡稳定性变化，得出阈值调整方案. 以浙江省平阳县为研究区，提出当地阈值计算公式，并根据各斜坡的地质环境形成各自不同等级的预警判据，综合预警有效率达到72%，效果良好. 提出斜坡尺度的风险预警模型，实现了斜坡单元级别的精准预警，能够为“一区一阈值”精细化滑坡气象预警与风险管控提供新思路和参考.
关键词： 滑坡风险;  气象预警;  阈值;  地质环境;  斜坡尺度    
Abstract:

A slope-scale meteorological warning model for rainfall-induced slope instability risk was constructed using benchmark threshold and a threshold adjustment scheme, in order to carry out refined landslide risk management. The benchmark threshold was proposed by the intensity-duration model. Adjusting factors were selected from slope geometry, rock and soil shear strength, hydrogeological conditions and vegetation based on the characteristics of the slope geological environment, and the benchmark slope was determined. The threshold adjustment scheme was obtained from the perspective of rainfall infiltration process, which explored the variation of the slope stability caused by the changes of the geological environment. Taking Pingyang County in Zhejiang Province as the study area, a quantitative formula was defined for calculating the threshold of individual slopes. Thresholds corresponding to different warning levels were formed based on the environment of each slope. The comprehensive early warning effectiveness rate reached 72%, which showed a satisfactory warning effect. An innovative slope-scale risk warning model was proposed. The precise landslide early warning at slope-unit scale was realized, which can provide new ideas and references for refined landslide early warning and risk management on purpose of “each-slope, each-threshold”.
Key words: landslide risk    meteorological warning    threshold    geological environment    slope scale
收稿日期: 2023-06-12 出版日期: 2024-05-25
CLC:  TP 642  
基金资助: 平阳县地质灾害风险降雨阈值项目（LXCG2022-070）.
通讯作者: 殷坤龙     E-mail: yanliangxuan@cug.edu.cn;yinkl@cug.edu.cn
作者简介: 严亮轩（1994—），男，博士生，从事地质灾害风险评价研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-2207-8461. E-mail：yanliangxuan@cug.edu.cn
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引用本文:

严亮轩,张义顺,龚泉冰,刘谢攀,朱浩濛,殷坤龙,陈丽霞. 降雨诱发斜坡失稳风险的气象预警[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2024, 58(6): 1174-1184.

Liangxuan YAN,Yishun ZHANG,Quanbing GONG,Xiepan LIU,Haomeng ZHU,Kunlong YIN,Lixia CHEN. Meteorological warning for rainfall-induced slope instability risk. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2024, 58(6): 1174-1184.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2024.06.008    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2024/V58/I6/1174

图 1  基于地质环境的降雨诱发斜坡失稳风险的气象预警模型
图 2  平阳典型滑坡照片
图 3  典型台风降雨过程
图 4  滑坡发生前累计降雨
图 5  平阳县降雨诱发型滑坡I-D阈值曲线
预警等级RS/mm
I级（红色预警）[270, +∞)
II级（橙色预警）[210, 270)
III级（黄色预警）[150, 210)
IV级（蓝色预警）[85, 150)
表 1  平阳县降雨诱发型滑坡预警基准阈值(24 h)
图 6  基准斜坡模型
图 7  降雨工况分小时雨强
图 8  不同坡度下的斜坡稳定性系数变化图
图 9  斜坡坡度因子降雨阈值调整拟合曲线
图 10  不同覆盖层厚度下的斜坡稳定性系数变化图
图 11  斜坡覆盖层厚度因子降雨阈值调整拟合曲线
图 12  不同内摩擦角下的斜坡稳定性系数变化图
图 13  斜坡内摩擦角因子降雨阈值调整拟合曲线
图 14  不同内聚力下的斜坡Fsi和Fsmin拟合曲线
图 15  不同渗透系数下的斜坡稳定性系数变化图
图 16  有无切坡时不同覆盖层厚度斜坡的初始稳定性系数
植被类型植被特征η
杉木树高约30 m，大枝平展，小枝对生或轮生，常成二列
状，叶子披针形或条状披针形，长2~6 cm，宽3~5 mm		0.82
松树轮状分枝，节间长，小枝较细弱平直，
树冠篷松不紧凑，针叶细长成束		0.85
毛竹竿高可达20多米，末级小枝一般有2~4叶，
叶片较小较薄，披针形		0.93
油茶树树高一般约3 m，单叶互生，其叶子呈椭圆形，
且相对比较茂盛		0.57
表 2  常见植被及其有效降雨系数参考值[36]
地质环境因子调整规则
斜坡坡度α/(o)ΔRα=?0.01748(α?25)×RS
覆盖层厚度d/mΔRd=0.1056(d?3)×RS+7
内摩擦角φ/(o)ΔRφ=0.00667(φ?25)×RS
黏聚力c/kPaΔRc=0.02(c?25)×RS
渗透系数k/(m·s?1)$ \Delta R_k=\left\{\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}-0.2 \times R_{\mathrm{S}}, & k>2 \times 10^{-7}\; \mathrm{m / s} \\0, & k=2 \times 10^{-7} \;\mathrm{m / s}\\0.2 \times R_{\mathrm{S}}, & k<2 \times 10^{-7}\; \mathrm{m / s}\end{array}\right. $
切坡情况$ \Delta R_{\rm {s }}=\left\{\begin{array}{*{20}{l}}0,& \text { 有切坡 } \\0.2 \times R_{\mathrm{S}},& \text { 无切坡 }\end{array}\right. $
不同植被类型有效
降雨系数/η		杉木0.82
松树0.85
毛竹0.93
油茶树0.57
荒地1.00
表 3  平阳县降雨诱发斜坡失稳预警阈值因子调整规则
图 17  “鲇鱼”台风诱发滑坡预警复盘图
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