Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (6): 1185-1195    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.06.005
土木工程、交通工程     
异质性解耦与特征分层建模驱动的交通流预测
侯越(),谢金龙,张琳栋,尹杰,王甜甜
兰州交通大学 电子与信息工程学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
Traffic flow prediction driven by heterogeneity decoupling and feature layered modeling
Yue HOU(),Jinlong XIE,Lindong ZHANG,Jie YIN,Tiantian WANG
School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
 全文: PDF(1709 KB)   HTML
摘要:

为了解决现有交通流预测模型难以捕捉不同时间片下的动态变化,且无法充分考虑不同区域流量分布的差异化特征的问题,提出新型的交通流预测模型CFHD-Former. 该模型引入自适应高频异质化模块和渐进调优机制,增强对不同时间片交通状态的适应性. 在捕捉时间异质化特征的基础上,利用核心流动点识别模块,根据节点流量特征来划分核心与非核心流动路网,通过空间编码器实现对2类路网的异质化建模. 在反向传播过程中引入频域自相关MAE损失函数,考虑预测序列不同时间步间的依赖关系,达到降低多步预测误差的目的. 实验结果表明,相较于最优的基线模型,在PEMS04、PEMS08及METRLA 3个数据集上,所提CFHD-Former模型的MAE分别降低了1.70%、4.58%、4.44%. 结果验证了CFHD-Former模型在复杂路网时空异质性建模方面的有效性,为城市交通流预测提供了新的解决方案.

关键词: 交通流预测时空异质性核心流动点识别异质化建模差异化特征    
Abstract:

A new traffic flow prediction model named CFHD-Former was proposed in order to address the limitations of existing traffic flow prediction models that struggle to capture dynamic variations across different time slices and cannot adequately consider the heterogeneous characteristics of traffic volume distributions across regions. An adaptive high-frequency heterogeneity module and a progressive optimization mechanism were introduced to enhance its adaptability to traffic states under different time slices. A core flow node identification module was employed building on the captured temporal heterogeneity feature in order to partition the road network into core and non-core flow networks based on nodal traffic flow characteristics. Heterogeneous modeling of the two types of road network was implemented via a spatial encoder. A frequency-domain autocorrelation MAE loss function was incorporated during backpropagation in order to consider the dependencies among different time steps within the prediction sequence, thereby reducing multi-step prediction errors. The experimental results demonstrated that the MAE of the proposed CFHD-Former model was reduced by 1.70%, 4.58% and 4.44% on the PEMS04, PEMS08 and METR-LA datasets, respectively compared with the best-performing baseline model. Results verified the effectiveness of CFHD-Former in modeling the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of complex road networks and provided a new solution for urban traffic flow prediction.

Key words: traffic flow prediction    spatio-temporal heterogeneity    core flow point identification    heterogeneous modeling    heterogeneous characteristic
收稿日期: 2025-03-06 出版日期: 2026-05-06
CLC:  U 491  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(62063014,62363020).
作者简介: 侯越(1979—),女,教授,博导,从事大数据智能交通的研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-8289-329X. E-mail:houyue@mail.lzjtu.cn
服务  
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
作者相关文章  
侯越
谢金龙
张琳栋
尹杰
王甜甜

引用本文:

侯越,谢金龙,张琳栋,尹杰,王甜甜. 异质性解耦与特征分层建模驱动的交通流预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(6): 1185-1195.

Yue HOU,Jinlong XIE,Lindong ZHANG,Jie YIN,Tiantian WANG. Traffic flow prediction driven by heterogeneity decoupling and feature layered modeling. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(6): 1185-1195.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.06.005        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I6/1185

图 1  住宅区与市中心位置分布
图 2  市中心与住宅区的流量时变特征对比
图 3  输入-预测序列的自相关性分析
图 4  CFHD-Former模型的架构图
图 5  时间Transformer的结构
图 6  节点流入流出能力计算的示意图
图 7  空间Transformer的结构
图 8  递归与直接预测范式的对比
图 9  频域变换的示意图
数据集地区节点长度日期
PeMS04旧金山湾区307169922018.01—02
PeMS08圣贝纳迪诺区170178562016.07—09
METRLA洛杉矶县207342722012.03—06
表 1  Caltrans PeMS数据集的基本信息
模型PEMS04PEMS08METRLA
MAERMSEMAPE/%MAERMSEMAPE/%MAERMSEMAPE/%
ARIMA28.5540.3619.5531.2333.4719.256.0811.3714.62
ST-Norm18.9630.9812.6915.4124.779.763.146.458.60
SCINet19.3031.2812.0515.7624.6510.013.466.629.25
STGCN19.5731.2813.4416.0825.3910.603.166.388.69
DCRNN19.6331.2613.5916.2225.1710.813.246.478.92
GWNet18.8330.0112.9414.9823.9910.213.176.619.21
DGCRN19.0130.5112.1914.8023.759.463.186.388.76
GMAN19.1431.6013.1915.3124.9210.133.256.528.76
ASTGNN18.6030.9112.3615.0024.759.503.306.648.78
PDFormer18.5130.2412.3814.3423.689.883.156.548.71
CFHD-Former18.3229.9812.0113.7423.289.033.036.268.35
表 2  基于PEMS04、PEMS08、METRLA数据集的不同基准线模型的预测准确度对比
图 10  不同消融模型的预测性能分析
tp/minMAE
CFHD-Former-HFCFHD-Former-PTCFHD-Former-CPCFHD-Former-FLCFHD-Former
1512.8512.2512.4112.0511.94
3015.8515.1714.2114.0813.67
6018.9816.9315.8616.1715.25
tp/minRMSE
CFHD-Former-HFCFHD-Former-PTCFHD-Former-CPCFHD-Former-FLCFHD-Former
1520.3619.3920.3319.7119.55
3026.2425.9824.3424.1623.41
6031.2528.9627.1327.9426.09
tp/minMAPE/%
CFHD-Former-HFCFHD-Former-PTCFHD-Former-CPCFHD-Former-FLCFHD-Former
158.367.918.207.967.89
3010.209.939.309.218.95
6012.4611.1810.4710.7510.07
表 3  消融模型在不同时间步下的预测性能
图 11  关键超参数的敏感性分析
图 12  核心流动点的地理空间分布
图 13  核心与非核心流动点的流量时变模式对比
图 14  基于不同日期数据的t-SNE降维可视化
图 15  CFHD-Former与DGCRN拟合真实值的对比
图 16  CFHD-Former与基线模型在不同扰动比例噪声下的预测误差对比
1 SUN Y, ZHANG G, YIN H Passenger flow prediction of subway transfer stations based on nonparametric regression model[J]. Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, 2014, 2014 (1): 397154
2 TONG J, GU X, ZHANG M, et al. Traffic flow prediction based on improved SVR for VANET [C]//Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Advanced Electronic Materials, Computers and Software Engineering. Changsha: IEEE, 2021: 402–405.
3 ZAREMBA W, SUTSKEVER I, VINYALS O. Recurrent neural network regularization [EB/OL]. (2015-02-19). https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.2329.
4 GRAVES A. Long short-term memory [M]//Supervised sequence labelling with recurrent neural networks. Berlin: Springer, 2012: 37–45.
5 HAO S, LEE D H, ZHAO D Sequence to sequence learning with attention mechanism for short-term passenger flow prediction in large-scale metro system[J]. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2019, 107: 287- 300
doi: 10.1016/j.trc.2019.08.005
6 KIPF T N, WELLING M. Semi-supervised classification with graph convolutional networks [EB/OL]. (2019-06-15). https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.02907.
7 LI Z, XIONG G, CHEN Y, et al. A hybrid deep learning approach with GCN and LSTM for traffic flow prediction [C]//Proceedings of the IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference. Auckland: IEEE, 2019: 1929-1933.
8 KONG W, GUO Z, LIU Y Spatio-temporal pivotal graph neural networks for traffic flow forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2024, 38 (8): 8627- 8635
doi: 10.1609/aaai.v38i8.28707
9 SHAO Z, ZHANG Z, WANG F, et al. Spatial-temporal identity: a simple yet effective baseline for multivariate time series forecasting [C]//Proceedings of the 31st ACM International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management. Atlanta: ACM, 2022: 4454-4458.
10 DONG Z, JIANG R, GAO H, et al. Heterogeneity-informed meta-parameter learning for spatiotemporal time series forecasting [C]//Proceedings of the 30th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Barcelona: ACM, 2024: 631-641.
11 PHOLSENA K, PAN L, ZHENG Z Mode decomposition based deep learning model for multi-section traffic prediction[J]. World Wide Web, 2020, 23 (4): 2513- 2527
doi: 10.1007/s11280-020-00791-1
12 邵春福. 交通规划原理 [M]. 2版. 北京: 中国铁道出版社, 2014: 96–97.
13 LIU S, GHOSH R, MOTANI M. Towards better long-range time series forecasting using generative forecasting [EB/OL]. (2022-08-05). https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.06142.
14 WANG H, PAN L, CHEN Z, et al. FreDF: learning to forecast in the frequency domain [EB/OL]. (2024-02-04). https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.02399.
15 WILLIAMS B M, HOEL L A Modeling and forecasting vehicular traffic flow as a seasonal ARIMA process: theoretical basis and empirical results[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2003, 129 (6): 664- 672
doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(2003)129:6(664)
16 DENG J, CHEN X, JIANG R, et al. ST-norm: spatial and temporal normalization for multi-variate time series forecasting [C]//Proceedings of the 27th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. [S. l. ]: ACM, 2021: 269-278.
17 LIU M, ZENG A, CHEN M, et al SCINet: Time series modeling and forecasting with sample convolution and interaction[J]. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2022, 35: 5816- 5828
18 YU B, YIN H, ZHU Z. Spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks: a deep learning framework for traffic forecasting [EB/OL]. (2018-07-12). https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.04875.
19 WU Z, PAN S, LONG G, et al. Graph WaveNet for deep spatial-temporal graph modeling [EB/OL]. (2019-05-31). https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.00121.
20 LI Y, YU R, SHAHABI C, et al. Diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network: data-driven traffic forecasting [EB/OL]. (2018-02-22). https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.01926.
21 LI F, FENG J, YAN H, et al Dynamic graph convolutional recurrent network for traffic prediction: benchmark and solution[J]. ACM Transactions on Knowledge Discovery from Data, 2023, 17 (1): 1- 21
22 ZHENG C, FAN X, WANG C, et al GMAN: a graph multi-attention network for traffic prediction[J]. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2020, 34 (1): 1234- 1241
doi: 10.1609/aaai.v34i01.5477
23 DUAN W, HE X, ZHOU Z, et al. Localised adaptive spatial-temporal graph neural network [C]//Proceedings of the 29th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. Long Beach: ACM, 2023: 448-458.
[1] 侯越,王甜甜,张鑫,尹杰. 多分辨率趋势周期解耦交互的交通流预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(7): 1362-1372.
[2] 项新建,袁天顺,何亚强,汪成立. 基于时序分解和软阈值时间卷积的交通流预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(7): 1353-1361.
[3] 马莉,王永顺,胡瑶,范磊. 预训练长短时空交错Transformer在交通流预测中的应用[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(4): 669-678.
[4] 路庆昌,张图,王琴,徐标. 时空角度下极端天气的可达性指标比较[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2024, 58(7): 1387-1396.
[5] 王殿海,谢瑞,蔡正义. 基于最优汇集时间间隔的城市间断交通流预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2023, 57(8): 1607-1617.
[6] 闫旭,范晓亮,郑传潘,臧彧,王程,程明,陈龙彪. 基于图卷积神经网络的城市交通态势预测算法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2020, 54(6): 1147-1155.
[7] 龚越, 罗小芹, 王殿海, 杨少辉. 基于梯度提升回归树的城市道路行程时间预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2018, 52(3): 453-460.
[8] 任沙浦, 沈国江. 短时交通流智能混合预测技术[J]. J4, 2010, 44(8): 1473-1478.