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Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (12): 2765-2774    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.12.022
    
Causal prior-guided spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction model
Yue HOU1(),Yan WANG1,Yuxuan DONG1,Jianguo ZHAO1,Lindong ZHANG1,Jing MA2,3,Zengqiang SU3
1. School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
2. School of Computer Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710000, China
3. Gansu Province Transportation Planning Survey andb Design Institute Limited Company, Lanzhou 730070, China
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Abstract  

A causal prior-guided spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction model was proposed in order to address the challenges of identifying the driving factors behind traffic flow variations and improving prediction performance. The spatiotemporal feature fusion module was used to discretize the spatial dimension and integrate it with periodic embeddings in order to enhance the representation of complex nonlinear feature. The latent causal discovery module was utilized to introduce a lag-aware causal convolution and a causal filter in order to capture potential causal relationship among time series. The causal validation module was used to identify true causal relationship under a hypothesis testing framework in order to calculate time delay between nodes with causal effect. The causally validated structure was embedded as prior knowledge into a dynamic graph convolution module in order to guide information propagation and feature aggregation. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed model achieved reduction in MAE by 4.9197%, 3.9518% and 2.1968% on PeMSD4, PeMSD8 and Chengdu-DiDi datasets, respectively, compared with baseline models. The effectiveness of the causal mechanism in traffic flow prediction was verified.



Key words: traffic flow prediction      causal discovery      causal validation      deep learning      spatio-temporality     
Received: 12 September 2025      Published: 21 October 2026
CLC:  U 491  
Fund:  国家自然科学基金资助项目(62363020);甘肃省交通运输厅科技项目(2025-28).
Cite this article:

Yue HOU,Yan WANG,Yuxuan DONG,Jianguo ZHAO,Lindong ZHANG,Jing MA,Zengqiang SU. Causal prior-guided spatiotemporal traffic flow prediction model. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(12): 2765-2774.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.12.022     OR     https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2026/V60/I12/2765


因果先验引导的交通流时空预测模型

针对交通网络中流量变化驱动因素难以识别、预测性能有待提升的问题,提出因果先验引导的交通流时空预测模型. 采用时空特征融合模块,对空间维度进行离散化建模,并与周期性嵌入相融合,增强模型对复杂非线性特征的表征能力. 利用潜在因果发现模块,引入时滞表征因果卷积和因果筛选器,挖掘时间序列间的潜在因果关系. 采用因果验证模块,在假设检验框架下筛选真实因果关系,计算具有因果效应的节点之间的时延信息. 将经因果验证的结构作为先验知识嵌入动态图卷积模块,指导信息传播与特征聚合. 实验结果表明,与基线模型相比,所提模型在PeMSD4、PeMSD8和成都-滴滴数据集上的MAE指标分别降低了4.9197%、3.9518%、2.1968%,验证了因果机制在交通流预测中的有效性.


关键词: 交通流预测,  因果发现,  因果验证,  深度学习,  时空性 
Fig.1 Overall architecture of CP-STN model
Fig.2 Comparison of original traffic flow series and its discretized counterpart
Fig.3 Diagram of latent causal discovery module
Fig.4 Causal validation module diagram
模型PeMSD4PeMSD8成都-滴滴
MAERMSER2MAERMSER2MAERMSER2
TCN23.0636.030.945619.2230.160.95462.794.050.8234
LSTM22.1436.110.946920.1731.500.95372.784.040.8263
DCRNN22.2834.290.916616.7425.630.92882.784.090.5818
ASTGCN20.4432.810.919316.4925.360.92852.353.490.6920
SCINet19.7531.690.959816.5025.710.96792.253.450.6905
STG-NCDE20.2931.360.950915.8324.890.97082.323.440.6932
DeepSTUQ(23)19.1531.360.933915.0423.970.93882.293.440.6933
BGCN(24)18.8331.730.959414.8223.840.97322.353.340.7523
FGI(24)19.3131.680.928214.9323.640.93962.193.310.7142
GINTRIP(24)18.6631.010.957214.9124.050.97382.293.370.7075
CP-STN18.3630.230.967814.3423.600.96992.143.180.8469
Tab.1 Prediction accuracy of different models on three traffic flow datasets
Fig.5 Prediction performance comparison of CP-STN and baseline models on three datasets
模型MAERMSER2
w/o D18.3730.650.9634
w/o DW19.3231.510.9417
w/o CD18.4230.730.9601
w/o IQR18.4330.710.9599
w/o CV18.4030.600.9631
CP-STN18.3630.230.9678
Tab.2 Ablation study result of CP-STN model on PeMSD4 dataset
模型MAERMSER2
w/o D14.4423.850.9683
w/o DW14.5924.930.9510
w/o CD14.5123.980.9613
w/o IQR14.4724.010.9611
w/o CV14.4923.910.9612
CP-STN14.3423.610.9699
Tab.3 Ablation study result of CP-STN model on PeMSD8 dataset
Fig.6 heatmap of causal attention scores for partial nodes
Fig.7 Traffic flow variations of partial nodes across different time periods
Fig.8 Causal time delay diagram among partial nodes
LMAERMSER2
114.5823.630.9651
214.3423.600.9699
314.4523.610.9613
Tab.4 Average prediction result of different model layers on PeMSD8 dataset
mMAERMSER2
0.814.5323.910.9591
1.014.4123.720.9621
1.214.3423.600.9699
1.414.3923.690.9617
Tab.5 Average prediction result of different hyperparameter m on PeMSD8 dataset
αMAERMSER2
0.2014.3523.710.9683
0.2514.3423.600.9699
0.3014.3823.820.9613
0.3514.4723.930.9551
Tab.6 Average prediction result of different hyperparameter α on PeMSD8 dataset
模型ttr/sMAENp/103
ASTGCN12716.49179.46
SCINet6416.502 778.62
STG-NCDE24115.832 547.28
DeepSTUQ3515.04198.64
GINTRIP2114.91415.87
CP-STN6314.34218.63
Tab.7 Efficiency comparison of models by time, accuracy and parameter count
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