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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (5): 1027-1036    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.012
能源与动力工程     
基于卷积长短期记忆网络的锂电池寿命预测及动态建模
王孝龙1,2(),陶吉利2,*(),朱想先3,梁建伟1,陈岱岱3,刘之涛4
1. 江西理工大学 电气工程与自动化学院,江西 赣州 341099
2. 浙大宁波理工学院 信息科学与工程学院,浙江 宁波 315100
3. 宁波均胜电子股份有限公司 浙江省汽车电子智能化重点实验室,浙江 宁波,315048
4. 浙江大学 控制科学与工程学院,浙江 杭州 310027
Convolutional long short-term memory network based lithium battery life prediction and dynamic modeling
Xiaolong WANG1,2(),Jili TAO2,*(),Xiangxian ZHU3,Jianwei LIANG1,Daidai CHEN3,Zhitao LIU4
1. School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou, 341099
2. School of Information Science and Engineering, NingboTech University, Ningbo 315100
3. Key Laboratory of Automotive Electronics Intelligentization of Zhejiang Province, Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp., Ningbo 315048
4. College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027
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摘要:

针对传统固定参数模型难以适应电池老化过程的问题,将数据驱动与物理模型机理深度融合,提出基于健康状态(SOH)的锂离子电池动态建模方法. 采用卷积长短期记忆网络从电池时序数据中提取多尺度特征,实现SOH高精度预测;构建二阶RC等效电路模型,采用带遗忘因子的递推最小二乘法进行参数在线识别;引入随机森林回归与卡尔曼滤波,实现模型参数随老化状态的动态更新. 实验结果表明,所提方法在电池老化各阶段均具有比传统固定参数模型更高的预测精度和更稳定的误差分布. 在电池老化后期,所提方法使动态模型的性能显著提升约80%,中位误差为0.025 V,相比传统模型具有显著优势.

关键词: 寿命预测卷积长短期记忆网络动态模型递推最小二乘法卡尔曼滤波    
Abstract:

To address the problem that traditional fixed-parameter models cannot adapt to battery aging processes, data-driven approaches were deeply integrated with physical model mechanisms, and a state-of-health (SOH)-based dynamic modeling method for lithium-ion batteries was proposed. Convolutional long short-term memory networks were employed to extract multi-scale features from battery time-series data, achieving high-precision SOH prediction. A second-order RC equivalent circuit model was constructed, and a forgetting factor recursive least squares method was adopted for online parameter identification. Random forest regression and Kalman filtering were introduced to realize dynamic updating of model parameters according to aging states. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves higher prediction accuracy and a more stable error distribution than the traditional fixed-parameter model across all battery aging stages. In the late aging stage, the proposed method improves the prediction performance of the dynamic model by approximately 80%, with a median error of 0.025 V, demonstrating significant advantages over the traditional model.

Key words: life prediction    convolutional long short-term memory network    dynamic model    recursive least squares method    Kalman filter
收稿日期: 2025-06-10 出版日期: 2026-05-06
CLC:  TM 912  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(62373321);浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LMS25F030027);浙江省汽车电子智能化重点实验室开放课题资助(J20240708).
通讯作者: 陶吉利     E-mail: yk12090202@163.com;taojili@nbt.edu.cn
作者简介: 王孝龙(2000—),男,硕士生,电池能源管理. orcid.org/0009-0000-3663-4484. E-mail:yk12090202@163.com
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引用本文:

王孝龙,陶吉利,朱想先,梁建伟,陈岱岱,刘之涛. 基于卷积长短期记忆网络的锂电池寿命预测及动态建模[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(5): 1027-1036.

Xiaolong WANG,Jili TAO,Xiangxian ZHU,Jianwei LIANG,Daidai CHEN,Zhitao LIU. Convolutional long short-term memory network based lithium battery life prediction and dynamic modeling. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(5): 1027-1036.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.012        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I5/1027

图 1  基于电池健康状态预测的锂电池动态建模系统框架
图 2  卷积长短期记忆网络架构图
图 3  二阶RC等效电路图
图 4  卷积长短期记忆网络在训练过程中的性能参数变化曲线
模型RMSE/10?3MAPE/%O/min
CNN5.2700.540015
CNN+LSTM3.2670.316032
文献[7]1.5190.164095
文献[27]2.4680.280352
本研究1.8990.179038
表 1  不同锂电池寿命预测模型的预测性能对比
图 5  不同锂电池寿命预测模型的电池寿命预测曲线
图 6  等效电路模型参数识别结果
方法MAE/mVRMSE/mV工况条件
FFRLS(λ=0.98)[31]0.2470.584DST工况
AFFRLS(λ=0.98)[31]0.2840.612FUDS工况
VFFRLS[33]0.5250.974FUDS工况
VFFRLS[34]0.3740.926DST工况
AFFRLS[35]0.3190.720DST工况
FFRLS(λ=0.98)本研究0.2260.537老化早期
FFRLS(λ=0.98)本研究0.2530.596老化后期
表 2  不同参数识别方法误差对比
参数敏感度rP值R2
$ {R}_{\mathrm{s}} $0.8750.888<0.0010.789
$ {R}_{1} $0.4560.971<0.0010.943
$ {R}_{2} $0.3200.848<0.0010.719
$ {C}_{1} $0.7200.988<0.0010.976
$ {C}_{2} $0.358?0.978<0.0010.956
表 3  等效电路模型参数对电池健康状态变化的敏感性分析
图 7  基于雷达图的等效电路模型参数对电池健康状态变化的敏感性与响应强度分析
参数QR
Rs6.0×10?75.4×10?6
R10.0050.032
C10.00300.003
R20.0050.003
C20.00250.001
表 4  卡尔曼滤波器参数设置
图 8  优化后的等效电路模型参数随电池健康状态的演变曲线
模型CVADR/%
RsR1C1
FFRLS0.1850.2030.16745.8
FFRLS+RF0.1420.1560.12868.2
本研究0.0710.0890.07489.1
表 5  不同参数优化与更新策略的消融实验结果
方法RMSE$ {t}_{\mathrm{inf}} $/ms
早期中期后期
PINN[12]0.0320.0480.15625
多时间尺度[36]0.0280.0520.1848
电化学特征[37]0.0350.0580.19812
本研究0.0250.0320.03815
表 6  不同预测方法在电池健康状态不同阶段的预测性能对比
图 9  传统固定参数模型与动态参数模型端电压输出对比图
图 10  不同电池健康状态下传统固定参数模型与动态参数模型预测误差对比
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