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Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (12): 2725-2734    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.12.018
    
Ensemble learning-based prediction of salt cavern leaching and intelligent design of process parameters
Jiasong CHEN1(),Guijiu WANG1,Xuefeng BAI1,Chong DUAN1,Xilin SHI2,Guimin ZHANG3,Xiaofei LI4,Hui JIN4,Jinlong LI4,*()
1. PipeChina Energy Storage Technology Co. Ltd, Shanghai 200011, China
2. Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, China
3. School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
4. Center for Hypergravity Experimental and Interdisciplinary Research, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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Abstract  

An ensemble learning-based surrogate model and a process parameter optimization method were proposed to improve the efficiency of solution mining design for salt cavern gas storage and reduce dependence on manual experience. A dataset containing 5324 samples was constructed using the self-developed single-well salt cavern storage cavity leaching simulation (SSCLS) software. The input variables included stratigraphic data and six-stage process parameters, while the output variables consisted of cavern volume and radius at key depth. Four types of tree-based models were used as base learners, and ridge regression was adopted as the meta-learner to establish the surrogate model. A design optimization workflow consisting of parameter generation, model prediction, deviation evaluation, and software verification was further developed. The test results showed that the mean absolute percentage error of volume prediction was 2.85%, and the mean absolute error of radius prediction for Jintan Well 52 was 2.17 m. A single prediction was completed within milliseconds, improving the computational efficiency by six orders of magnitude compared with conventional simulation. The proposed optimization method screened 830000 candidate parameter sets within 23 min and obtained an optimized scheme with a morphology deviation of 4.1%. The method can be used for preliminary scheme selection and rapid comparison of process parameters in salt cavern gas storage construction.



Key words: salt cavern gas storage      solution mining      neural network      ensemble learning      design optimization     
Received: 21 April 2026      Published: 21 October 2026
CLC:  TP 393  
Fund:  国家自然科学基金资助项目(42677186);国家管网集团储能技术有限公司科技项目(CNJS-SZZN202401).
Corresponding Authors: Jinlong LI     E-mail: chenjs01@pipechina.com.cn;lijinlong@zju.edu.cn
Cite this article:

Jiasong CHEN,Guijiu WANG,Xuefeng BAI,Chong DUAN,Xilin SHI,Guimin ZHANG,Xiaofei LI,Hui JIN,Jinlong LI. Ensemble learning-based prediction of salt cavern leaching and intelligent design of process parameters. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(12): 2725-2734.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.12.018     OR     https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2026/V60/I12/2725


基于集成学习的盐穴造腔预测及工艺参数智能设计

针对盐穴储气库水溶造腔设计效率低、依赖人工经验的问题,提出基于集成学习的代理模型与工艺参数优化方法. 依托自研盐穴单井水溶造腔模拟软件(SSCLS),构建包含 5?324 组样本的数据集,输入为地层数据、6个阶段工艺参数,输出为成腔体积与关键深度半径. 采用4类树模型作为基学习器、岭回归作为元学习器,构建代理模型,并提出 “参数生成-模型预测-偏差评估-软件复核” 的设计优化流程. 测试结果表明,模型体积预测平均绝对百分比误差为 2.85%,金坛 52 号井半径预测平均绝对误差为 2.17 m;单次预测耗时为ms级,较传统模拟效率提升 6 个数量级;所提出的参数优化方法可在 23 min内从 83 万组参数中筛选出最优方案,形态差异度仅为 4.1%. 该方法可用于盐穴储气库造腔方案初选和工艺参数快速比选.


关键词: 盐穴储气库,  水溶造腔,  神经网络,  集成学习,  优化设计 
正反循环t/dHi/mHo/mHp/mρB/(g·L?1)qV/(m3·h?1)
1460614046
1146152035050
1200354550060
2155506070080
12266575950100
11008090115050
Tab.1 Example of leaching parameters for six stages
组别w(z)/%
z = 2 mz = 4 mz = 6 m…z = 108 mz = 110 m
1959092…5554
2888584...4046
3151719…8082
Tab.2 Example of geological parameters
Fig.1 Examples of cavity morphologies obtained through simulation using SSCLS
组别w(z)/%$ \cdots $循环
方式
t/dHi/mHo/mHp/m$ \cdots $V/m3Rs(z)/m
z=2 mz=4 m$ \cdots $z=0$ \cdots $z=110 m
19590$ \cdots $1118131931$ \cdots $220 2110$ \cdots $35.27
29090$ \cdots $1105111731$ \cdots $199 1360$ \cdots $14.52
38388$ \cdots $2101122029$ \cdots $207 0230$ \cdots $9.24
47576$ \cdots $1104152031$ \cdots $209 5610$ \cdots $25.94
57470$ \cdots $1101121830$ \cdots $201 5530$ \cdots $17.53
62630$ \cdots $2134121834$ \cdots $206 6020$ \cdots $26.21
73835$ \cdots $1114111629$ \cdots $211 4820$ \cdots $7.98
Tab.3 Example of dataset for salt-cavern solution-mining surrogate model
基学习器树数量最大深度学习率行采样率列采样率特征采样L1正则化参数L2正则化参数分割所需
最小样本数
叶节点所需
最小样本数
XGBoost50060.050.80.8—0.21.0——
LightGBM50060.050.80.8—0.21.0——
Random Forest30012———sqrt——64
Gradient Boosting30060.050.8——————
Tab.4 Parameter table of ensemble learning model
Fig.2 Loss variation during training of SCCP-Stacking ensemble learning model
Fig.3 Comparison of predicted and true volume on test set for SCCP-Stacking ensemble learning model
Fig.4 MAE of shape prediction on test set for SCCP-Stacking ensemble learning model
Fig.5 Comparison of predicted and true shape on test set for SCCP-Stacking ensemble learning model
阶段序号循环方式Hi/mHo/mHp/mt/dqV/(m3·h?1)
11?1 129.2?1 111.9?1 095.23846.2
21?1 117.1?1 065.5?1 053.39248.6
31?1 113.4?1 065.0?1 051.142069.1
41?1 099.1?1 035.7?1 035.219966.3
51?1 085.2?1 025.5?1 025.424162.8
61?1 080.1?1 016.2?1 015.419065.2
Tab.5 Leaching process parameters for Jintan No. 52 salt cavern storage
夹层编号Hb,i/mHt,i/mwi/%
1?1 030?1 03122
2?1 044?1 04555
3?1 058?1 06013
4?1 067?1 06846
5?1 077?1 07852
6?1 083?1 08611
7?1 090?1 09360
8?1 100?1 10158
Tab.6 Geological parameters of Jintan No. 52 salt cavern storage
Fig.6 Comparison of predicted and actual sonar results for Jintan No. 52 leaching (SCCP-Stacking ensemble learning model and SSCLS)
Fig.7 Optimization flowchart for leaching parameters of salt cavern gas storage
阶段序号循环方式t/dHi/mHo/mHp/mqV/(m3·h?1)ρB/(g·L?1)
1145?1 175?1 162?1 159950
21117?1 160?1 150?1 147480
32197?1 153?1 149?1 1131000
41297?1 133?1 098?1 095870
52120?1 128?1 110?1 085880
62166?1 120?1 112?1 075920
Tab.7 Process parameters for each stage of ideal ellipsoid
Fig.8 Simulation results of process parameters designed for ideal ellipsoid
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