Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (8): 1770-1781    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.08.016
计算机技术     
面向长期时间序列预测的多尺度双流架构
王美佳1(),张帆1,2,*(),王桦3,张明丽4,张彩明5
1. 山东工商学院 计算机科学与技术学院,山东 烟台 264005
2. 山东省高等学校未来健康智能医疗产业工程研究中心,山东 烟台 264005
3. 鲁东大学 计算机与人工智能学院,山东 烟台 264025
4. 麦吉尔大学 麦吉尔综合神经学中心 蒙特利尔神经科学研究所,魁北克 蒙特利尔 H3A 2B4
5. 山东大学 软件学院,山东 济南 250100
Multi-scale dual-stream architecture for long-term time series forecasting
Meijia WANG1(),Fan ZHANG1,2,*(),Hua WANG3,Mingli ZHANG4,Caiming ZHANG5
1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai 264005, China
2. Shandong Provincial Higher Education Institutions Future Health Intelligent Medical Industry Engineering Research Center, Yantai 264005, China
3. School of Computer and Artificial Intelligence, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, China
4. McGill Centre for Integrative Neuroscience, Montreal Neurological Institute, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 2B4, Canada
5. School of Software, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China
 全文: PDF(4292 KB)   HTML
摘要:

针对长期时间序列预测中多尺度动态捕捉不足与非线性建模能力有限的问题,提出名为Patchflow的双流架构. 设计多尺度分割策略,将长期时间序列划分为不同粒度的局部片段,精准同步建模局部与全局时序动态,提升对多频率特征的自适应能力. 引入切比雪夫多项式构建的近似卷积算子,从几何视角刻画片段间相关性,有效增强非平稳序列的建模精度. 在趋势建模的基础上,引入结构化先验以提取复杂时序依赖. 实验结果表明,相较同类方法,Patchflow在多个公开数据集上的预测精度均显著提升,在强季节性与长期趋势性序列上的表现尤为突出.

关键词: 时间序列预测双流结构多尺度分割非平稳序列切比雪夫多项式    
Abstract:

A dual-stream framework named Patchflow was proposed to address the limited ability to capture multi-scale dynamic and insufficient nonlinear modeling capability in long-term time series forecasting. A multi-scale segmentation strategy was employed to partition long-term time series into local segments of different granularities, enabling accurate simultaneous modeling of local and global temporal dynamics while enhancing adaptability to multi-frequency patterns. A Chebyshev polynomial-based approximate convolution operator was further introduced to capture inter-segment correlations from a geometric perspective, improving the modeling accuracy of non-stationary sequences. Based on the trend modeling branch, a structured prior was introduced to extract complex temporal dependencies. Experiments on multiple public datasets showed that Patchflow consistently outperformed state-of-the-art methods, with particularly notable improvements on sequences with strong seasonality and long-term trends.

Key words: time series forecasting    dual-stream architecture    multi-scale segmentation    non-stationary sequences    Chebyshev polynomials
收稿日期: 2025-06-24 出版日期: 2026-07-16
CLC:  TP 393  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金联合基金资助项目(U24A20219);国家自然科学基金资助项目(62272281);泰山学者专项基金资助项目(tsqn202306274);山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划(2023KJ212).
通讯作者: 张帆     E-mail: 2024410048@sdtbu.edu.cn;zhangfan@sdtbu.edu.cn
作者简介: 王美佳(2002—),女,硕士生,从事时间序列预测研究. orcid.org/0009-0009-4029-3809. E-mail:2024410048@sdtbu.edu.cn
服务  
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
作者相关文章  
王美佳
张帆
王桦
张明丽
张彩明

引用本文:

王美佳,张帆,王桦,张明丽,张彩明. 面向长期时间序列预测的多尺度双流架构[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(8): 1770-1781.

Meijia WANG,Fan ZHANG,Hua WANG,Mingli ZHANG,Caiming ZHANG. Multi-scale dual-stream architecture for long-term time series forecasting. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(8): 1770-1781.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.08.016        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I8/1770

图 1  所提多尺度双流架构
图 2  切比雪夫多项式层
图 3  局部-全局卷积模块
数据集种类Cf
ETTh1,ETTh2变压器温度71 h
ETTm1,ETTm2变压器温度715 min
Weather气象观测2110 min
Traffic道路占用率8621 h
Electricity用电负荷3211 d
Exchange全球8国汇率波动81 d
ILI流感样病例就诊比例77 d
表 1  用于基准测试的公开数据集统计数据
数据集MSE
PatchflowxPatchSimpleTMFilterTSPathformerTimeMixerPatchTSTTimesNetMICNDLinear
ETTh10.4200.4280.4230.4340.4390.4470.4460.4580.4400.456
ETTh20.3110.3190.3540.3760.3440.3650.3760.4140.4080.559
ETTm10.3690.3770.3810.3850.3820.3810.3910.4000.4060.403
ETTm20.2610.2670.2750.2770.2730.2750.2820.2910.2900.350
Weather0.2360.2320.2430.2450.2390.2400.2560.2590.2740.265
Traffic0.5000.5000.4440.4700.5010.4850.5150.6200.5850.625
Electricity0.1830.1790.1860.1810.1820.1820.2030.1930.2090.212
Exchange0.3440.3750.4240.3500.4010.4080.3690.4160.5890.354
ILI1.4321.4424.9152.4251.5631.7082.1102.1842.6532.616
表 2  不同模型在多个标准多元时间序列数据集上的长期预测结果(MSE)
数据集MAE
PatchflowxPatchSimpleTMFilterTSPathformerTimeMixerPatchTSTTimesNetMICNDLinear
ETTh10.4130.4190.4280.4300.4300.4400.4410.4500.4620.452
ETTh20.3590.3610.3910.3980.3790.3950.4010.4270.4400.515
ETTm10.3790.3840.3960.3960.3860.3960.4030.4060.4320.407
ETTm20.3100.3130.3220.3220.3160.3230.3250.3330.3430.401
Weather0.2600.2610.2720.2740.2630.2970.2800.2870.3250.317
Traffic0.3100.2790.2880.3150.2990.2980.3320.3360.3500.383
Electricity0.2740.2640.2870.2720.2690.2730.2900.2950.3190.300
Exchange0.3970.4090.4340.3970.4190.4220.4060.4430.5410.414
ILI0.7300.7251.5401.0200.7530.8200.9170.9311.0731.090
表 3  不同模型在多个标准多元时间序列数据集上的长期预测结果(MAE)
数据集TPatchflow去除多尺度聚合去除切比雪夫层
MSEMAEMSEMAEMSEMAE
ETTh1960.3700.3870.3730.3890.3710.388
1920.4170.4010.4330.4130.4170.405
3360.4380.4170.4530.4290.4670.435
7200.4540.4460.4950.4730.4860.462
ETTm1960.2990.3390.3110.3510.3090.342
1920.3410.3630.3540.3690.3550.369
3360.3810.3890.3920.3910.3900.393
7200.4540.4240.4640.4280.4570.429
ETTm2960.1620.2450.1660.2510.1640.248
1920.2270.2870.2310.2910.2300.290
3360.2830.3250.2910.3300.2920.331
7200.3710.3810.3800.3840.3810.383
Weather960.1520.1910.1570.1990.1680.203
1920.2010.2370.2060.2410.2130.245
3360.2560.2800.2640.2850.2670.286
7200.3380.3330.3450.3400.3440.339
表 4  所提多尺度双流架构的模块消融实验结果
数据集TxPatchxPatch*
MSEMAEMSEMAE
ETTh2960.2330.3000.2270.298
1920.2910.3380.2850.335
3360.3440.3770.3430.376
7200.4070.4270.4180.436
ETTm2960.1660.2480.1650.247
1920.2300.2910.2280.290
3360.2920.3310.2900.330
7200.3810.3830.3780.382
Weather960.1680.2030.1580.197
1920.2140.2450.2050.240
3360.2360.2730.2330.272
7200.3090.3210.3060.321
表 5  在强基线模型中引入切比雪夫多项式层的实验结果
图 4  多层感知机和切比雪夫多项式层的拟合效果比较
图 5  切比雪夫多项式层输入与输出特征对比图
图 6  ETT数据集上卷积核的参数敏感性分析
图 7  Weather数据集上嵌入维度的参数敏感性分析
数据集模型FLOPs/106Par/106I/ms
ETTh1Patchflow123.4718.458.28
xPatch10.421.374.66
SimpleTM0.750.055.61
iTransformer23.802.172.54
Pathformer12.060.54205.41
TimeMixer16.540.129.20
PatchTST1934.6413.5667.24
ETTm1Patchflow123.4218.448.67
xPatch10.421.375.88
SimpleTM0.220.023.87
iTransformer2.800.262.44
Pathformer30.090.87247.52
TimeMixer16.540.128.72
PatchTST140.662.2118.29
ElectricityPatchflow4438.4015.69320.21
xPatch477.921.37221.20
SimpleTM542.810.9060.52
iTransformer1609.864.9693.01
Pathformer3792.404.319893.60
TimeMixer971.680.151410.86
PatchTST5939.852.21615.75
表 6  模型复杂度分析
数据集模型FLOPs/106I/msMSEMAE
ETTh1Patchflow113.289.160.4380.417
Patchflow_Lite46.636.480.4390.421
ETTm1Patchflow113.289.580.3810.389
Patchflow_Lite46.636.570.3870.389
ElectricityPatchflow5194.54819.100.1820.275
Patchflow_Lite2138.46140.550.1870.281
表 7  轻量化模型的性能评估
数据集剪枝类型FLOPs/106I/msMSEMAE
ETTh1无剪枝315.240.3720.388
结构化剪枝316.970.4990.468
非结构化剪枝316.700.3720.388
Electricity无剪枝774.615.660.1540.249
结构化剪枝774.617.030.3410.433
非结构化剪枝774.617.140.1550.250
表 8  模型剪枝实验结果
模型ETTh1ETTm1Weather
MSEMAEMSEMAEMSEMAE
Patchflow0.1060.2280.0540.1610.0380.089
xPatch0.1630.2830.0710.1850.0500.115
SimpleTM0.2150.3530.1110.2300.0620.128
表 9  不同模型的时间序列插值性能对比
图 8  模型的异常扰动鲁棒性测试结果
图 9  全局缩放系数可视化
图 10  补丁尺度与多尺度融合方案在不同数据集上的预测性能对比
图 11  在Electricity和Weather数据集上2种模型的预测值与真实值对比
图 12  在ETTh1和ETTm1数据集上2种模型的预测值与真实值的对比
1 CHEN P, ZHANG Y, CHENG Y, et al. Pathformer: multi-scale transformers with adaptive pathways for time series forecasting [EB/OL]. (2024–09–15)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.05956.
2 CIRSTEA R G, YANG B, GUO C, et al. Towards spatio- temporal aware traffic time series forecasting [C]// Proceedings of the IEEE 38th International Conference on Data Engineering. Kuala Lumpur: IEEE, 2022: 2900–2913.
3 LI Z, QI S, LI Y, et al. Revisiting long-term time series forecasting: an investigation on linear mapping [EB/OL]. (2023–05–18)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.10721.
4 WU H, XU J, WANG J, et al. Autoformer: decomposition transformers with auto-correlation for long-term series forecasting [C]// Proceedings of the Neural Information Processing Systems. [S.l.]: Curran Associates Inc. , 2021: 22419–22430.
5 ZHOU T, MA Z, WEN Q, et al. FEDformer: frequency enhanced decomposed transformer for long-term series forecasting [C]// Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning. [S.l.]: PMLR, 2022: 27268–27286.
6 ZENG A, CHEN M, ZHANG L, et al Are transformers effective for time series forecasting?[J]. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2023, 37 (9): 11121- 11128
7 WU H, HU T, LIU Y, et al. TimesNet: temporal 2D-variation modeling for general time series analysis [EB/OL]. (2023–04–12)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.02186.
8 LIN S, LIN W, WU W, et al. SparseTSF: modeling long-term time series forecasting with 1k parameters [EB/OL]. (2024–06–03)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.00946.
9 O’SHEA K, NASH R. An introduction to convolutional neural networks [EB/OL]. (2015–12–02)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1511.08458.
10 NIE Y, NGUYEN N H, SINTHONG P, et al. A time series is worth 64 words: long-term forecasting with transformers [EB/OL]. (2023–03–05)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2211.14730.
11 张帆, 王桦, 范辉, 等 基于边缘和距离约束的有理多项式图像放大[J]. 中国科学: 信息科学, 2021, 51 (8): 1270- 1286
ZHANG Fan, WANG Hua, FAN Hui, et al Rational polynomial image magnification based on edge and distance constraints[J]. Scientia Sinica: Informationis, 2021, 51 (8): 1270- 1286
12 LIM B, ZOHREN S Time-series forecasting with deep learning: a survey[J]. Philosophical Transactions Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, 2021, 379 (2194): 20200209
13 FAN H, XIONG B, MANGALAM K, et al. Multiscale vision transformers [C]// Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF International Conference on Computer Vision. Montreal: IEEE, 2022: 6804–6815.
14 ZHANG Y, YAN J. Crossformer: transformer utilizing cross-dimension dependency for multivariate time series forecasting [C]// Proceedings of the International Conference on Learning Representations. Kigali: [s.n.], 2023: 1–12.
15 BOROVYKH A, BOHTE S, OOSTERLEE C W. Conditional time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks [EB/OL]. (2018–09–17)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04691.
16 KAG A, SALIGRAMA V. Time adaptive recurrent neural network [C]// Proceedings of the IEEE/CVF Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition. Nashville: IEEE, 2021: 15144–15153.
17 DEFFERRARD M, BRESSON X, VANDERGHEYNST P. Convolutional neural networks on graphs with fast localized spectral filtering [C]// 30th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems. Barcelona: [s.n.], 2016: 1–9.
18 HE M, WEI Z, WEN J R. Convolutional neural networks on graphs with Chebyshev approximation, revisited [EB/OL]. (2024–03–12)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.03580.
19 DIAO J, CUI K, HUANG Y, et al ChebyshevNet: a novel time series analysis model using Chebyshev polynomial[J]. The Journal of Supercomputing, 2024, 81 (1): 179
doi: 10.1007/s11227-024-06672-y
20 STITSYUK A, CHOI J xPatch: dual-stream time series forecasting with exponential seasonal-trend decomposition[J]. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2025, 39 (19): 20601- 20609
doi: 10.1609/aaai.v39i19.34270
21 CHEN H, LUONG V, MUKHERJEE L, et al. SimpleTM: A Simple Baseline for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting [C]// Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Learning Representations. Singapore: [s.n.], 2025: 1–26.
22 WANG S, WU H, SHI X, et al. TimeMixer: decomposable multiscale mixing for time series forecasting [EB/OL]. (2024–05–23)[2025–08–24]. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.14616.
[1] 林浩,李雷孝,赵丽. 融入人格特质的网络舆情风险预警方法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(6): 1261-1268.
[2] 刘瑄昀,闫莹,於志勇,黄昉菀. 基于无标度网络的类脑储备池拓扑设计[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(7): 1385-1393.
[3] 疏阳,孙轶琳,梅振宇,张逸敏,黄毅方. 基于多源数据的个体活动序列多步预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(11): 2317-2325.
[4] 马泽超,刘小明,夏汗青,王伟强,王久增,申海涛. 基于图神经网络的路面病害态势预测方法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2024, 58(12): 2596-2608.
[5] 卞艳,宫雨生,马国鹏,王昶. 基于无人机遥感影像的水体提取方法[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2022, 56(4): 764-774.
[6] 王晨霖,杨洁,居文军,顾复,陈芨熙,纪杨建. 基于智能家电的短期电力负荷预测与削峰填谷优化[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2020, 54(7): 1418-1424.
[7] 汪子龙,王柱,於志文,郭斌,周兴社. 多源数据跨国人口迁移预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2019, 53(9): 1759-1767.
[8] 杨彬蔚 陆系群 陈纯. 一种纺织印染图案的多尺度彩色分割算法[J]. J4, 2005, 39(4): 530-533.