地震灾害下城市双层关联生命线网络易损性

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.04.016

浙江大学学报(工学版)

2020, Vol. 54

Issue (4): 767-777 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.04.016

土木工程、交通工程

地震灾害下城市双层关联生命线网络易损性

赵旭东(

),陈志龙*(

),许继恒,唐海洲

陆军工程大学爆炸冲击防灾减灾国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210007

Seismic vulnerability of urban double-layer interdependent lifeline network

Xu-dong ZHAO(

),Zhi-long CHEN*(

),Ji-heng XU,Hai-zhou TANG

State Key Laboratory of Explosion and Impact and Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Army Engineering University, Nanjing 210007, China

全文: PDF(1161 KB) HTML

摘要：

以双层关联生命线网络为对象，建立生命线网络性能概率易损性仿真模型和关联单元震害和级联失效联合概率方法，形成地震灾害下双层关联生命线网络易损性研究框架，开展地震灾害下城市双层关联生命线网络性能的概率易损性分析. 在以华东某市电力和燃气关联网络为例的案例研究中，依据研究框架构建仿真流程，得到场景地震下双层关联生命线网络性能的概率易损性曲线. 结果显示，场景地震下，案例电力网络发生中度性能损失的概率较大，燃气网络发生重度性能损失的概率较大，燃气网络性能重度损失的概率随着关联强度的增强而明显增大. 电力网络和燃气网络均在单元抗震和网络布局上存在薄弱点，是2个网络发生性能损失的重要原因，应在后续规划中改进.

关键词： 地震; 生命线; 易损性; 关联; 级联失效

Abstract:

Probabilistic vulnerability simulation model of network performance and joint probability method of seismic failure and cascading failure of interdependent units were established focusing on the double-layer interdependent lifeline networks. Then a research framework was proposed to analyze the seismic vulnerability of double-layer interdependent lifeline networks. Then probabilistic vulnerability analysis of the performance of urban double-layer interdependent lifeline networks was conducted. A simulation procedure was constructed according to the framework to obtain the probabilistic vulnerability curves of double-layer interdependent lifeline networks under scenario earthquake in the case study of interdependent power-gas supply networks in a city of east China. Results show that power supply network is more likely to suffer medium performance loss under scenario earthquake, while gas supply network is more likely to suffer severe performance loss. The probability of severe performance loss of gas supply network apparently increases with the interdependence intension. The power supply network and gas supply network both have weaknesses in unit seismic fortification and network structure. These shortages are the main reasons of performance loss and should be well settled in the future municipal planning.

Key words: earthquake lifeline vulnerability interdependence cascading failure

收稿日期: 2019-03-25 出版日期: 2020-04-05

CLC:

TU 982

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目（51708554）；江苏省自然科学基金面上项目（BK20181336）

通讯作者: 陈志龙 E-mail: wxlmss@163.com;chen-zl@vip.163.com

作者简介: 赵旭东（1989—），男，讲师，从事城市生命线防灾及战时防护研究. orcid.org/0000-0001-6667-4946. E-mail： wxlmss@163.com

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引用本文:

赵旭东,陈志龙,许继恒,唐海洲. 地震灾害下城市双层关联生命线网络易损性[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2020, 54(4): 767-777.

Xu-dong ZHAO,Zhi-long CHEN,Ji-heng XU,Hai-zhou TANG. Seismic vulnerability of urban double-layer interdependent lifeline network. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2020, 54(4): 767-777.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.04.016 或 http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2020/V54/I4/767

图 1 生命线网络性能概率易损性模型方法

图 2 地震灾害下双层生命线网络易损性研究框架

图 3 案例城市电力供应网络拓扑结构示意图

图 4 案例城市燃气供应网络拓扑结构示意图

表 1 案例双层生命线网络关联关系

图 5 双层关联生命线网络易损性分析仿真流程

图 6 地震灾害下电力供应网络性能概率易损性曲线

表 2 案例地震场景下电力供应网络不同性能损失程度发生概率

图 7 案例地震场景下燃气供应网络性能概率易损性曲线（不同关联强度αij下）

图 8 案例地震场景下燃气网络性能不同损失程度发生概率（不同关联强度αij下）

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