| Reliability and Quality Design |
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| Reliability analysis of aviation equipment MFOP considering probability-interval hybrid uncertainty |
Ruping WANG1( ),Tenghao BI2,3,Lihua MENG1,Fawu XIANG1,Chongshuai WANG2,3( ) |
1.China Aero-Polytechnology Establishment, Beijing 100028, China 2.School of Electrical Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300401, China 3.National Key Laboratory of Smart Power Distribution and Utilization Equipment and Systems, Tianjin 300401, China |
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Abstract Based on the reliability analysis of aviation equipment with maintenance-free operating period (MFOP), the fault-free operation ability and task completion rate of the equipment can be improved by rationally planning the maintenance intervals. At present, the calculation of MFOP reliability indicators only considers the random uncertain factors based on specific distributions. However, for complex aviation equipment systems, it is difficult to obtain sample data of some uncertain factors, making it impossible to accurately establish probability distributions. Moreover, the reliability results obtained based on the ideally assumed probability distributions entail substantial deviations. Therefore, the probability-interval hybrid uncertainty was introduced into the MFOP reliability analysis framework. For the uncertain factors with sufficient sample sizes, they were characterized in a probabilistic way; for the uncertain factors with scarce sample sizes, they were characterized in an interval way. At the same time, taking into account the correlations among uncertain factors, a reliability analysis method for aviation equipment systems considering multi-source uncertainty was proposed. Finally, through an analytical example with four uncertain parameters and an engineering example of the water-landing airbag buffer system for aviation equipment involving six uncertain parameters, the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified. The research results provide a theoretical basis for maintenance decisions of aviation equipment.
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Received: 24 September 2025
Published: 27 June 2026
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Corresponding Authors:
Chongshuai WANG
E-mail: Wangruping724@163.com;wangchongshuai@hebut.edu.cn
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考虑概率-区间混合不确定性的航空装备MFOP可靠性分析
基于无维修工作期(maintenance-free operating period, MFOP)的航空装备可靠性分析,可通过合理规划维修间隔时间实现装备无故障运行能力及任务完成率的提升。目前,MFOP可靠性指标的计算仅考虑基于特定分布的随机不确定因素。然而,对于复杂的航空装备系统,部分不确定因素的样本数据获取困难,无法准确构建概率分布,而基于理想设定的概率分布得到的可靠性结果偏差较大。为此,将概率-区间混合不确定性引入MFOP可靠性分析框架。针对样本充足的不确定因素,以概率方式表征;针对小样本量的不确定因素,以区间方式表征。同时,考虑不确定因素之间的相关性,提出了一种考虑多源不确定性的航空装备系统可靠性分析方法。最后,通过包含4个不确定参量的解析算例和包含6个不确定参量的航空装备水上降落气囊缓冲系统工程算例,验证了所提出方法的有效性。研究结果为航空装备的维修决策提供了理论依据。
关键词:
混合不确定性,
可靠性,
无维修工作期,
航空装备
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doi: 10.3901/jme.2020.02.130
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