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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (5): 989-997    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.008
交通工程     
融合图卷积网络与社交池化的多模态轨迹预测模型
赵庆慧1(),崔鑫1,*(),张艺炜1,陈燕1,2
1. 山东理工大学 计算机科学与技术学院,山东 淄博 255049
2. 西藏职业技术学院 信息工程学院,西藏自治区 拉萨 850000
Multimodal trajectory prediction model integrating graph convolutional networks and social pooling
Qinghui ZHAO1(),Xin CUI1,*(),Yiwei ZHANG1,Yan CHEN1,2
1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255049, China
2. College of Information Engineering, Xizang Vocational Technical College, Lhasa, 850000, China
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摘要:

针对实际交通环境中车辆间的交互行为,提出多模态轨迹预测模型,结合时间序列、空间序列与社交行为建模,对车辆未来轨迹进行预测. 利用长短时记忆网络(LSTM)从历史数据中提取如车辆速度、加速度的时间依赖特征. 通过图卷积网络(GCN)利用加权邻接矩阵量化车辆间的交互强度,引入卷积社交池模块,提取车辆局部交互特征,提高层次空间交互模式. 采用多模态预测机制、多层感知机(MLP)计算驾驶行为概率分布,结合LSTM解码器生成与特定驾驶行为相符的未来轨迹分布. 实验结果表明,所提模型具有良好的车辆轨迹预测性能,相较于基线模型,均方根误差平均减少27.9%,负对数似然平均减少56.45%.

关键词: 轨迹预测长短期记忆网络(LSTM)图卷积网络(GCN)卷积社交池化多模态预测    
Abstract:

A multimodal trajectory prediction model was proposed for vehicle interaction behaviors in real traffic environments. Time series, spatial sequences, and social behavior were integrated for modeling and predicting future vehicle trajectories. Time-dependent features such as vehicle speed and acceleration were extracted from historical data using long short-term memory (LSTM). The interaction intensity between vehicles was quantified by graph convolutional networks (GCN) through a weighted adjacency matrix. A convolutional social pooling module was introduced to extract local interaction features and enhance hierarchical spatial interaction patterns. A multimodal prediction mechanism was adopted, where a multilayer perceptron (MLP) was used to compute the probability distribution of driving behaviors. The LSTM decoder was combined to generate future trajectory distributions corresponding to specific driving behaviors. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves strong performance in vehicle trajectory prediction. Compared to baseline models, the root mean square error is reduced by 27.9% on average, and the negative log-likelihood is reduced by 56.45% on average.

Key words: trajectory prediction    long short-term memory (LSTM)    graph convolutional network (GCN)    convolutional social pooling    multimodal prediction
收稿日期: 2025-06-09 出版日期: 2026-05-06
CLC:  TP 399  
基金资助: 科技博士项目(4041422007).
通讯作者: 崔鑫     E-mail: sdutzhaoqinghui@163.com;cx@sdut.edu.cn
作者简介: 赵庆慧(2000—),女,硕士生,从事软件定义网络,车联网技术研究. orcid.org/0009-0005-4321-6252. E-mail:sdutzhaoqinghui@163.com
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引用本文:

赵庆慧,崔鑫,张艺炜,陈燕. 融合图卷积网络与社交池化的多模态轨迹预测模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(5): 989-997.

Qinghui ZHAO,Xin CUI,Yiwei ZHANG,Yan CHEN. Multimodal trajectory prediction model integrating graph convolutional networks and social pooling. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(5): 989-997.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.008        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I5/989

图 1  车辆轨迹预测示意图
图 2  邻接矩阵计算举例
图 3  卷积社交池化车道划分
图 4  融合图卷积网络与卷积社交池化的轨迹预测模型整体架构
模型RMSE/mNLL
tp=1 stp=2 stp=3 stp=4 stp=5 s平均值tp=1 stp=2 stp=3 stp=4 stp=5 s平均值
CV0.731.783.134.686.683.4003.725.376.407.167.766.082
M-LSTM0.581.262.133.234.672.3740.872.493.464.094.743.130
PIP0.561.232.102.994.212.2181.783.364.244.875.413.932
RA-LSTM0.521.062.233.164.552.3041.462.613.844.495.033.486
WSiP0.541.172.043.084.142.1941.663.304.174.805.323.850
HAN0.521.011.692.523.541.8561.363.144.044.685.183.680
STA-LSTM0.541.201.972.944.172.1640.561.572.323.144.042.326
HTSA-LSTM0.490.981.532.343.461.7600.511.282.062.773.261.976
HLTP++0.480.981.562.173.321.7020.611.692.542.893.792.304
GC-LSTM0.470.891.412.083.221.6140.481.121.872.472.981.784
表 1  不同轨迹预测模型在NGSIM数据集上的性能对比
模型RMSE/mNLL
tp=1 stp=2 stp=3 stp=4 stp=5 s平均值tp=1 stp=2 stp=3 stp=4 stp=5 s平均值
CV0.330.781.622.433.671.7661.943.094.856.127.034.606
PiP0.240.681.342.193.421.5740.452.273.344.204.763.004
WSiP0.220.591.212.053.041.4220.341.832.723.494.252.526
HAN0.180.441.051.722.871.2520.271.242.373.063.952.178
HLTP++0.190.421.111.642.751.2220.291.382.593.043.872.234
DRBP0.180.491.111.622.721.2240.241.272.442.933.692.114
GC-LSTM0.150.370.991.542.651.1400.231.072.042.743.531.922
表 2  不同轨迹预测模型在HighD数据集上的性能对比
图 5  不同轨迹预测模型在NGSIM数据集上的仿真结果可视化对比
图 6  在数据集NGSIM上的模块消融实验结果
图 7  在数据集HighD上的模块消融实验结果
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