The latent variables affecting travelers’ intention to low-carbon travel were comprehensively considered based on the theory of planned behavior and the theory of value-belief-norm in order to analyze travelers’ low-carbon travel behaviors and internal mechanisms. A multi-cause and multi-indicator model was constructed by using the empirical data of Hangzhou, and the values of latent variables were calibrated. A hybrid choice model and a Logit model without latent variables were constructed to compare and analyze travelers’ weekday mode choice behavior. A binary hybrid choice model was constructed to analyze the travel behavior shift of high carbon people under carbon incentives. Results show that the latent variables such as attitude, perceived behavioral control, and view of incentive significantly affect the travelers' willingness to travel in a low-carbon way and the choice of travel modes. The hybrid choice model has a better goodness-of-fit than the Logit model without latent variables, and the prediction accuracy improves by 4.6%. 64.4% of the high-carbon individuals tends to choose low-carbon modes under carbon incentives, showing that the carbon incentives can effectively promote travel modes shift behavior. There is some heterogeneity of the variables attitude and travel time in travel mode shift behavior.