浙江大学学报(工学版)  2021, Vol. 55 Issue (9): 1625-1633    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.09.003
 机械工程、能源工程

Short term load forecasting based on gated recurrent unit and error correction
Wei HUANG(),Tian CHEN*(),Ru-jun WU
School of Mechanical Engineering, Shanghai Dianji University, Shanghai 201306, China
 全文: PDF(1641 KB)   HTML

Abstract:

A combined prediction model combining stacked bidirectional gated recurrent unit (SBiGRU), complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and error correction was proposed, aiming at the problem of error accumulation in iterative training process of load forecasting model. The SBiGRU model was established to learn the time series characteristics of load series under the influence of temperature and date type, and the error characteristics were reflected in the error series generated in the prediction process of SBiGRU model. Then CEEMDAN algorithm was used to decompose the error series into several intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and trend components. For each component, SBiGRU model was established again for learning and forecasting, and the predicted values of all components were reconstructed to obtain the error prediction results. Finally, the prediction results were summed to correct the error. Model evaluation results show that the prediction accuracy of the combined model is 98.86%. Compared with SBiGRU, BiRNN, support vector regression, ect., the combined model has better accuracy.

Key words: load forecasting    gated recurrent unit    error correction    ensemble empirical mode decomposition

 CLC: TP 183

 服务 把本文推荐给朋友 加入引用管理器 E-mail Alert 作者相关文章 黄炜 陈田 吴入军

引用本文:

Wei HUANG,Tian CHEN,Ru-jun WU. Short term load forecasting based on gated recurrent unit and error correction. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2021, 55(9): 1625-1633.

链接本文:

 图 1  门控循环单元的网络结构 图 2  双向门控循环单元的网络结构 图 3  组合模型的预测流程 图 4  部分负荷的变化曲线 表 1  不同SBiGRU结构的性能对比 图 5  第1阶段叠式双向门控循环单元的网络参数 图 6  第1阶段叠式双向门控循环单元的预测结果 图 7  第1阶段叠式双向门控循环单元的误差序列 图 8  各IMF分量的负荷变化曲线 图 9  5种预测模型的预测结果对比 图 10  5种模型的预测值与实际值相关性分析 表 2  5种模型的预测结果误差对比 图 11  5种模型的误差直方图 图 12  5种模型的误差箱线图