Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2021, Vol. 55 Issue (6): 1118-1127    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.06.012
交通工程、土木工程     
基于随机场-贝叶斯的滑面抗剪强度参数反演
薛阳(),吴益平*(),苗发盛,李麟玮
中国地质大学（武汉） 工程学院，湖北 武汉 430074
Back analysis of shear strength parameters of sliding surface by using combination method of random field and Bayes theory
Yang XUE(),Yi-ping WU*(),Fa-sheng MIAO,Lin-wei LI
Engineering Faculty, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
 全文: PDF(1882 KB)   HTML
摘要：

为了合理地表征滑面的抗剪强度参数，针对参数的空间变异性与不确定性问题，以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例，基于随机场、自适应条件抽样与可靠度贝叶斯更新方法，建立滑面抗剪强度参数的反演框架. 采用新的全局敏感性方法PAWN，研究不同位置条块滑面抗剪强度参数对稳定性的贡献度. 基于滑面抗剪强度参数随机场模型的反演结果，开展库水位下降工况下非侵入式随机有限元滑坡渗流变形的模拟，分析更新前、后滑面抗剪强度参数的变化特征及空间变异性对滑坡变形的影响. 结果表明：敏感度大的区域分布在滑坡前缘和后缘道路附近；反演后平稳随机场变为非平稳状态，滑坡前、后缘的位移变异性分别增大和减小.
关键词： 抗剪强度参数;  滑带;  随机场模型;  贝叶斯反演;  全局敏感性    
Abstract:

The process of back analysis was constructed based on the random field method, adaptive conditional sampling algorithm and Bayesian updating with structural reliability method by taking Baishuihe landslide as a case in order to characterize the spatial variability and uncertainty of shear strength parameters in sliding zone. A new global sensitivity analysis method named PAWN was adopted to analyze the relative influence of shear strength parameters of slices on the factor of safety. The seepage-deformation simulation with non-intrusive stochastic finite element method was conducted based on the inversion results of the random field model for sliding surface. The variation characteristic and spatial variability before and after update was explored, and its effect on the displacement was analyzed. Results show that the area of large sensitivity index is located on the front and trailing edge of landslide. The non-stationary random field is formed after the inversion. The displacement variability on the trailing edge decreases, while that on the front of landslide increases.
Key words: shear strength parameter    sliding zone    random field model    Bayesian updating    global sensitivity
收稿日期: 2020-05-22 出版日期: 2021-07-30
CLC:  P 66  
基金资助: 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC1501301）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41977244，42007267）
通讯作者: 吴益平     E-mail: EGXYang@163.com;ypwu@cug.edu.cn
作者简介: 薛阳（1994—），男，博士生，从事斜坡工程稳定性评价的研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-6814-4428. E-mail： EGXYang@163.com
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
作者相关文章　　
薛阳
吴益平
苗发盛
李麟玮

引用本文:

薛阳,吴益平,苗发盛,李麟玮. 基于随机场-贝叶斯的滑面抗剪强度参数反演[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2021, 55(6): 1118-1127.

Yang XUE,Yi-ping WU,Fa-sheng MIAO,Lin-wei LI. Back analysis of shear strength parameters of sliding surface by using combination method of random field and Bayes theory. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2021, 55(6): 1118-1127.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.06.012    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2021/V55/I6/1118

图 1  滑坡任意2个条块 $\tilde i$和 $\tilde j$的信息示意图
图 2  白水河滑坡平面图与变形破坏现场图片
材料 $\gamma $ /（kN·m?3） E /MPa c /kPa $\varphi $ /（°） $\mu$ ${K_{\rm{s}}}$ /（m·d?1）
滑体 20.7 36.5 32.4 18 0.32 0.35
滑带 22.0 1.88 — — 0.33 0.22
表 1  岩土体的物理力学参数
图 3  白水河滑坡3-3′剖面条块划分
图 4  白水河滑坡3-3′剖面有限元模型
图 5  stat取不同状态时的敏感性结果
图 6  条块滑面抗剪强度参数对稳定系数的敏感度
图 7  稳定系数的先、后验PDF曲线
图 8  不同位置条块的黏聚力先、后验PDF曲线
图 9  不同位置条块的摩擦角先、后验PDF曲线
图 10  反演前、后的各条块黏聚力均值
图 11  反演前、后的各条块摩擦角均值
图 12  反演前、后的各条块黏聚力标准差
图 13  反演前、后的各条块摩擦角标准差
图 14  反演前、后A剖面处的位移
图 15  反演前、后B剖面处的位移
图 16  反演前、后A、B剖面处位移的变异系数
1 JIANG J W, XIANG W, ROHN J, et al Research on water–rock (soil) interaction by dynamic tracing method for Huangtupo landslide, Three Gorges Reservoir, PR China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2015, 74 (1): 557- 571
doi: 10.1007/s12665-015-4068-5
2 WEN B P, AYDIN A Microstructural study of a natural slip zone: quantification and deformation history[J]. Engineering Geology, 2003, 68 (3): 289- 317
3 LU S, TANG H M, ZHANG Y, et al Effects of the particle-size distribution on the micro and macro behavior of soils: fractal dimension as an indicator of the spatial variability of a slip zone in a landslide[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2018, 77 (2): 665- 677
doi: 10.1007/s10064-017-1028-1
4 CAO Z J, WANG Y, LI D Q Quantification of prior knowledge in geotechnical site characterization[J]. Engineering Geology, 2016, 203 (3): 107- 116
5 苗发盛. 基于离心模型试验的典型库岸滑坡演化阶段综合判识研究[D]. 武汉: 中国地质大学, 2019.
MIAO Fa-sheng. Comprehensive identification of the evolution stage of typical reservoir bank landslides based on centrifugal model test[D]. Wuhan: China University of Geosciences, 2019.
6 张红日, 王桂尧, 张永杰, 等 基于位移监测的岩质滑带参数拟合反演研究[J]. 地下空间与工程学报, 2016, 12 (Supple. 2): 875- 881
ZHANG Hong-ri, WANG Gui-yao, ZHANG Yong-jie, et al Study on fitting inversion for the parameters of rock slip zone based on displacement monitoring[J]. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 2016, 12 (Supple. 2): 875- 881
7 张金华. 岩土体抗剪强度参数反演及滑坡灾害预测研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆交通大学, 2010.
ZHANG Jin-hua. Research on the shear strength parameters inversion of rock­soils and the prediction of landslide disaster[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing Jiaotong University, 2010.
8 徐汉斌, 王军 反算法中滑坡稳定系数的取值问题[J]. 四川地质学报, 1999, 19 (1): 86- 89
XU Han-bin, WANG Jun Selection of landslide stability factor in inverse calculation[J]. Acta Geologica Sichuan, 1999, 19 (1): 86- 89
9 石崇, 张玉, 孙怀昆, 等 争岗滑坡堆积体滑面强度参数反演分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2010, 29 (A02): 3728- 3734
SHI Chong, ZHANG Yu, SUN Huai-kun, et al Back analysis of strength parameters of sliding surface of Zhenggang landslide deposit body[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010, 29 (A02): 3728- 3734
10 吴振君. 土体参数空间变异性模拟和土坡可靠度分析方法应用研究[D]. 武汉: 中国科学院研究生院(武汉岩土力学研究所), 2009.
WU Zhen-jun. Study on spatial variability simulation of soil properties and practical reliability analysis method of soil slope[D]. Wuhan: Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2009.
11 薛阳, 吴益平, 苗发盛, 等 库水升降条件下考虑饱和渗透系数空间变异性的白水河滑坡渗流变形分析[J]. 岩土力学, 2020, 41 (5): 1709- 1720
XUE Yang, WU Yi-ping, MIAO Fa-sheng, et al Seepage and deformation analysis of Baishuihe landslide considering spatial variability of saturated hydraulic conductivity under reservoir water level fluctuation[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2020, 41 (5): 1709- 1720
12 WANG Y, CAO Z J, LI D Q Bayesian perspective on geotechnical variability and site characterization[J]. Engineering Geology, 2015, 203 (3): 117- 125
13 ZHANG L L, ZHANG J, ZHANG L M, et al Back analysis of slope failure with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 2010, 37 (7/8): 905- 912
14 WANG L, HWANG J H, LUO Z, et al Probabilistic back analysis of slope failure-a case study in Taiwan[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 2013, 51 (6): 12- 23
15 GONG W P, TIEN Y M, JUANG C H, et al Optimization of site investigation program for improved statistical characterization of geotechnical property based on random field theory[J]. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2017, 76 (3): 1021- 1035
doi: 10.1007/s10064-016-0869-3
16 蒋水华, 魏博文, 张文举, 等 基于多源试验数据空间变异土体参数概率反演及边坡可靠度更新[J]. 岩土力学, 2018, 39 (4): 1491- 1499
JIANG Shui-hua, WEI Bo-wen, ZHANG Wen-jun, et al Probabilistic back analysis of spatially varying soil properties and reliability updating of slopes with multiple sources of test data[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2018, 39 (4): 1491- 1499
17 LI X Y, ZHANG L M, LI J H Using conditioned random field to characterize the variability of geologic profiles[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2016, 142 (4): 04015096
doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0001428
18 王长虹, 黄梦露 岩土参数转换模型的贝叶斯校准方法[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2018, 27 (4): 98- 104
WANG Chang-hong, HUANG Meng-lu Transformation model for geotechnical parameters calibration based on Bayesian approach[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2018, 27 (4): 98- 104
19 STRAUB D, PAPAIOANNOU I B Bayesian updating with structural reliability methods[J]. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2015, 141 (3): 04014134
doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000839
20 PAPAIOANNOU I B, WOLFGANG B, KILIAN Z, et al MCMC algorithms for subset simulation[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2015, 41 (7): 89- 103
21 CHO S E Probabilistic assessment of slope stability that considers the spatial variability of soil properties[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2009, 136 (7): 975- 984
22 PIANOSI F, WAGENER T Distribution-based sensitivity analysis from a generic input-output sample[J]. Environmental Modeling and Software, 2019, 108 (10): 197- 207
23 PIANOSI F, WAGENER T A simple and efficient method for global sensitivity analysis based on cumulative distribution functions[J]. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2015, 67 (5): 1- 11
24 卢书强, 易庆林, 易武, 等 库水下降作用下滑坡动态变形机理分析--以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例[J]. 工程地质学报, 2014, 22 (5): 869- 875
LU Shu-qiang, YI Qing-lin, YI Wu, et al Study on dynamic deformation mechanism of landslide in drawdown of reservoir water level: take Baishuihe landslide in three gorges reservoir area for example[J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2014, 22 (5): 869- 875
25 三峡大学土木与建筑学院. 三峡库区秭归县典型滑坡专业监测预警成果报告[R]. 宜昌: 三峡大学土木与建筑学院, 2013.
College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, China Three Gorges University. Research report on professional monitoring and early-warning of typical landslide in Zigui County in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area[R]. Yichang: College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, China Three Gorges University, 2013.
26 李远耀, 殷坤龙, 柴波, 等 三峡库区滑带土抗剪强度参数的统计规律研究[J]. 岩土力学, 2008, 29 (5): 276- 286
LI Yuan-yao, YIN Kun-long, CHAI Bo, et al Study on statistical rule of shear strength parameters of soil in landslide zone in Three Gorges Reservoir Area[J]. Rock and Soil Mechanics, 2008, 29 (5): 276- 286
27 李典庆, 唐小松, 周创兵. 基于Copula理论的岩土体参数不确定性表征与可靠度分析[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014.
28 吴振君, 王水林, 汤华, 等 一种新的边坡稳定性因素敏感性分析方法: 可靠度分析方法[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2010, 29 (10): 2050- 2055
WU Zhen-jun, WANG Shui-lin, TANG Hua, et al A new sensitivity analysis approach slope stability: reliability ananlysis method[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2010, 29 (10): 2050- 2055
[1] 陈颖骐, 王全才. 滑坡设计推力优化计算[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2018, 52(7): 1320-1328.
[2] 罗跃, 叶淑君, 吴吉春, 章艳红, 焦珣, 王寒梅. 地面沉降模型的参数全局敏感性[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2018, 52(10): 2007-2013.