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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (7): 1557-1566    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.07.017
土木与水利工程     
基于物理信息的城市洪涝多阶段替代模型
苏挺1(),许月萍1,*(),WANGQuanjun2,钟华3,蒋建群1
1. 浙江大学 建筑工程学院,浙江 杭州 310058
2. 墨尔本大学 工程与信息技术学院,维多利亚 墨尔本 3052
3. 南京水利科学研究院,江苏 南京 210029
Physics-informed multi-stage surrogate model for urban flooding
Ting SU1(),Yueping XU1,*(),Quanjun WANG2,Hua ZHONG3,Jianqun JIANG1
1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2. Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3052, Australia
3. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
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摘要:

针对传统水力学模型计算量大且难以满足实时预测需求的问题,研发融合长短期记忆网络(LSTM)、低精度物理模型(LFM)与基于超分辨率技术的U形卷积神经网络(SRU)的多阶段替代模型LSTM-LFM-SRU. 模型将洪涝过程划分为一维管网排水与二维地表淹没2个阶段,分别采用LSTM与LFM-SRU进行替代建模,构建数据驱动与物理信息融合的内涝预测框架. 在杭州下沙的应用结果表明,本研究中所构建的多阶段替代模型能在5.31 s内完成一场20 h强降雨引发的城市淹没过程模拟,计算效率提升至高精度的水动力学模型的12.7倍,其中一维替代模型LSTM的平均纳什效率系数达到0.94,二维替代模型LFM-SRU相比于LFM-U-net模型在均方根误差上下降了17.2%.

关键词: 城市洪涝多阶段替代模型长短期记忆网络(LSTM)低精度物理模型(LFM)基于超分辨率技术的U形卷积神经网络(SRU)    
Abstract:

A multi-stage surrogate model named LSTM-LFM-SRU was developed to address the high computational cost and limited real-time capability of traditional hydrodynamic models. The urban flood process was divided into two stages: one-dimensional drainage through pipe networks and two-dimensional surface inundation. Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and a combination of a low-fidelity physical model (LFM) with a super-resolution U-shaped convolutional neural network (SRU) were adopted to replace the corresponding stages. A flood prediction framework was constructed by combining data-driven methods with physical information. The multi-stage surrogate model was applied to a case study in the Xiasha area of Hangzhou. A 20-hour intense rainfall-induced inundation event was simulated within 5.31, with its computational efficiency reaching 12.7 times that of the high-precision hydrodynamic models. The one-dimensional LSTM-based surrogate achieved an average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency value of 0.94, while the two-dimensional LFM-SRU model reduced the Root Mean Square Error by 17.2% compared with the LFM-U-net model.

Key words: urban flooding    multi stage    surrogate model    long short-term memory(LSTM)    low-fidelity physical model (LFM)    super-resolution U-shaped convolutional neural network (SRU)
收稿日期: 2025-04-17 出版日期: 2026-05-23
CLC:  TP 183  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52309038);浙江省重点研发计划资助项目(2021C03017).
通讯作者: 许月萍     E-mail: 22312105@zju.edu.cn;yuepingxu@zju.edu.cn
作者简介: 苏挺(2001—),男,硕士生,从事城市洪水模拟和预报研究. orcid.org/0009-0009-0023-2649. E-mail:22312105@zju.edu.cn
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引用本文:

苏挺,许月萍,WANGQuanjun,钟华,蒋建群. 基于物理信息的城市洪涝多阶段替代模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(7): 1557-1566.

Ting SU,Yueping XU,Quanjun WANG,Hua ZHONG,Jianqun JIANG. Physics-informed multi-stage surrogate model for urban flooding. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(7): 1557-1566.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.07.017        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I7/1557

图 1  研究区域概况
图 2  城市洪涝多阶段替代模型构建流程图
开始时间t/hH/mmP/a
1963/09/12 08:0015183.423
1972/08/21 19:005107.710
1988/09/02 21:00397.714
2007/10/08 06:009135.912
2010/09/11 05:005110.812
2013/10/07 01:0020240.967
表 1  杭州站历史6场特大降雨事件总结
参数取值范围率定结果
不透水洼蓄量/mm0.18~2.541.78
透水洼蓄量/mm2.54~5.085.00
最大渗入率/(mm?h?1)50.8~101.664.0
最小渗入率/(mm?h?1)7.6~15.211.5
不透水区域曼宁系数0.010~0.0500.018
透水区域曼宁系数0.020~0.4000.024
管道曼宁系数0.011~0.0170.013
地表曼宁系数0.010~0.1000.020
表 2  物理过程模型的参数率定结果
图 3  物理过程模型的验证结果
图 4  基于超分辨率技术的U形卷积神经网络结构
静态物理特征获取方式选择原因
地形高程使用数字高程模型
(DEM)数据
地形高程是水流动态的重要因素,它直接影响水流的流向和积水的区域
坡度根据数字高程模型
(DEM)计算得到
坡度表示地面的倾斜程度,影响水流的速度和方向. 陡坡区域水流速度快,容易形成径流,而平缓区域水流速度慢,更容易积水
曲率根据数字高程模型
(DEM)计算得到
曲率表示地面表面的弯曲程度,可以影响水流的汇聚或分散. 在坡度较大或凹陷的地区,水流会被汇聚,可能导致积水或洪水,而平坦区域则会促使水流分散
不透水率根据土地利用类型
计算得到
不透水率反映了地面表面的渗水能力,主要受土地利用类型影响. 城市的建成区不透水率值大,下渗能力弱,更容易发生积水现象
到最近检查井距离根据检查井位置
计算得到
检查井(或排水系统)是城市排水系统的重要组成部分,距离检查井的距离直接影响到水流是否能及时进入排水系统
表 3  SRU模型中输入的静态物理特征
图 5  SWMM模拟与LSTM模型预测溢流量结果对比
组别二维替代模型RMSE/mMAE/mCSI/%
组1LFM-SRU0.0960.02889.16
组2LFM-U-net0.1160.02788.78
表 4  二维替代模型性能指标对比
图 6  一、二维耦合替代模型模拟结果对比
组别一维模型二维模型RMSE/mMAE/mCSI/%
ASWMMLFM-SRU0.0970.02789.59
BLSTMTHFM0.0160.00395.70
CLSTMLFM-SRU0.0960.02889.16
表 5  对比实验性能指标对比
图 7  对比实验中各组模型的模拟结果
模型t/s
一维模型二维模型总计
SWMM-THFM15.0052.4167.41
SWMM- LFM-SRU15.004.9919.99
LSTM-THFM0.3252.4152.73
LSTM- LFM-SRU0.324.995.31
表 6  不同模型组合的计算效率对比
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