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浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2022, Vol. 56 Issue (2): 379-387    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2022.02.019
土木与建筑工程、交通工程     
快速路出口匝道衔接段交通特性与安全分析
陈永恒1(),吴场建1,白乔文1,*(),熊帅2,李婉宁1,李浩楠1
1. 吉林大学 交通学院，吉林 长春 130022
2. 中国市政工程华北设计研究总院有限公司，天津 300074
Traffic characteristics and safety analysis of expressway off-ramp junction
Yong-heng CHEN1(),Chang-jian WU1,Qiao-wen BAI1,*(),Shuai XIONG2,Wan-ning LI1,Hao-nan LI1
1. College of Transportation, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China
2. North China Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute Limited Company, Tianjin 300074, China
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摘要：

为了探究快速路出口匝道与下游交叉口衔接段的驾驶行为与安全特性，结合实测换道车辆轨迹数据，分析匝道衔接段车辆轨迹特性和换道位置特性. 利用交通冲突技术，以后侵入时间（PET）为指标对车辆换道风险展开分析，建立有序概率模型识别冲突严重程度的影响因素. 结果显示，用Lorentz分布模型拟合车辆换道位置效果较好，换道类型与跨越车道数对车辆换道位置有显著影响，在强制换道与跨越多车道时换道位置更靠近衔接段始端；相较于普通衔接段，匝道衔接段行车风险更高，主要冲突类型为交叉冲突；衔接段饱和度、换道位置、交叉冲突、强制换道以及违章换道与冲突严重程度显著相关. 匝道衔接段释放车辆的车头时距稳定性差，交织区排队车辆的释放受换道干扰严重.
关键词： 匝道衔接段;  换道特性;  安全分析;  交通冲突;  统计分析    
Abstract:

In order to explore the driving behavior and safety characteristics of the junction between the off-ramp and the downstream intersection, combined with the measured track data of lane changing vehicles, the track characteristics and the lane changing position characteristics of the ramp junction vehicles were analyzed. Using the traffic conflict technology, the risk of vehicle lane changing was analyzed with post encroach time (PET) as the index, and the ordered probability model was established to identify the factors affecting the severity of the conflict. Results show that the Lorentz distribution model can be used to fit the vehicle lane change position. The lane change type and the number of lane crossing have significant effects on the vehicle lane change position, and the lane change position is closer to the beginning of the junction when the lane change is forced and the lane crossing is multi-lane. Compared with the ordinary junction section, the driving risk of the ramp junction section is higher, and the main conflict type is crossover conflict. The saturation of junction section, lane change position, cross conflict, forced lane change and illegal lane change are significantly related to the severity of conflict. The stability of the headways in the off-ramp junction section is poor during the green phase, and the lane changing interference of the queuing vehicle in the interweaving section is serious.
Key words: ramp junction section    lane changing characteristic    safety analysis    traffic conflict    statistical analysis
收稿日期: 2021-04-02 出版日期: 2022-03-03
CLC:  U 491  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51705196); 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2019YFB1600504)
通讯作者: 白乔文     E-mail: cyz@jlu.edu.cn;victorbty@foxmail.com
作者简介: 陈永恒（1978—），男，副教授，从事交通组织、交通管理与控制研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-2598-1373. E-mail: cyz@jlu.edu.cn
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引用本文:

陈永恒,吴场建,白乔文,熊帅,李婉宁,李浩楠. 快速路出口匝道衔接段交通特性与安全分析[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2022, 56(2): 379-387.

Yong-heng CHEN,Chang-jian WU,Qiao-wen BAI,Shuai XIONG,Wan-ning LI,Hao-nan LI. Traffic characteristics and safety analysis of expressway off-ramp junction. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2022, 56(2): 379-387.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2022.02.019    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2022/V56/I2/379

图 1  调查地点几何参数
图 2  车辆轨迹信息采集
图 3  典型换道车流轨迹
模型 AIC
ORJ-1 ORJ-2
Lorentz模型 ?157.176 ?165.624
LogNormal模型 ?126.336 ?127.645
Gauss模型 ?146.535 ?159.765
表 1  换道位置分布模型拟合结果
图 4  换道位置概率密度函数
图 5  不同换道类型下换道位置累计频率分布图
地点 换道类型 $ n $ $ \overline x $/m $\sigma/{\rm{m}}$ P值
ORJ-1 强制换道 358 22.81 14.39 0.004
ORJ-1 自由换道 254 31.21 17.31 0.004
ORJ-2 强制换道 378 28.21 12.06 0.001
ORJ-2 自由换道 247 34.21 17.31 0.001
ORJ-3 强制换道 271 18.27 11.80 0.001
ORJ-3 自由换道 230 25.75 14.79 0.001
ORJ-4 强制换道 249 22.64 11.40 0.001
ORJ-4 自由换道 210 31.08 14.37 0.001
表 2  不同类型下的换道位置统计分析
图 6  不同跨越车道数下车辆换道位置累计频率分布图
地点 跨越车道数 $ n $ $ \overline x $/m $\sigma/{\rm{m}}$ P值
ORJ-1 1 79 43.57 13.88 0.001
ORJ-1 2 113 34.49 17.54 1.000
ORJ-1 3 176 28.88 11.03 0.028
ORJ-2 1 87 41.32 11.98 0.001
ORJ-2 2 122 32.14 19.58 1.000
ORJ-2 3 210 25.45 14.54 0.010
ORJ-3 1 110 31.21 17.32 0.001
ORJ-3 2 145 26.32 15.20 1.000
ORJ-3 3 178 17.52 11.52 0.001
ORJ-4 1 95 27.02 15.88 0.104
ORJ-4 2 98 25.74 18.95 1.000
ORJ-4 3 145 19.10 14.31 0.001
表 3  不同跨越车道数下的车辆换道位置统计分析
图 7  匝道衔接段PET直方图与累计分布曲线
冲突类型 匝道衔接段 普通衔接段 P值
$\bar x_ {\rm{PET} }$ ${\rm{pr}}$/% $P_{\rm{tc} }$ $\bar x_{ {\rm{PET}} }$ ${\rm{pr}}$/% $P_{\rm{tc} }$
分流冲突 1.85 34 0.17 2.14 52 0.09 <0.001
交叉冲突 1.51 36 0.24 1.97 2 0.00 <0.001
合流冲突 1.83 30 0.15 1.89 46 0.08 0.041
总计 1.73 100 0.53 2.00 100 0.17 0.012
表 4  2种衔接段交通冲突对比
变量 系数 P值
衔接段饱和度 0.362 0.008
换道位置 0.341 <0.001
交叉冲突 0.512 0.021
强制换道 0.557 <0.001
违章换道 0.397 <0.001
${\chi }_1 $ 1.587 ?
${\chi }_2 $ 3.224 ?
表 5  有序Probit模型参数标定
变量 ΔP
潜在冲突 轻微冲突 严重冲突
衔接段饱和度 ?0.057 ?0.011 0.068
换道位置 ?0.052 0.014 0.038
交叉冲突 ?0.221 ?0.108 0.329
强制换道 ?0.301 0.147 0.154
违章换道 ?0.164 0.031 0.133
表 6  有序Probit模型边际效应
图 8  车头时距分布箱线图
图 9  车头时距有序图
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