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浙江大学学报(工学版)
Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)  2021, Vol. 55 Issue (5): 927-934    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.05.013
    
Application of binary connection number-projection grey target decision theory in power system emergency capability evaluation
Zhen-yu LI1(),Xiao-guo CHEN1,Yong-chao SONG2,Jian-ping GONG2,Zhi-wei YU2,Yong-xing ZHU2,Zhou-xun LU2
1. Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510663, China
2. China Southern Power Grid Co. Ltd, Guangzhou 510663, China
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Abstract  

An evaluation method based on the binary connection number-projection gray target decision theory was introduced, and it was applied to the evaluation of power grid emergency capacity, due to the diversification of indicator data types in the evaluation of power grid emergency capacity. Firstly, a basic indicator system for power grid emergency capability evaluation with multiple data types was established through research and analysis. Secondly, the established multi-type indicator data system was processed using binary connection number theory to realize the unity of data composition form in order to facilitate subsequent analysis and calculation. Then, the weights division model of the indicators based on the network hierarchy analysis method was used to determine the weights of the power grid emergency capacity indicators, taking into account the inherent relationship between power grid emergency capacity indicators. Finally, the projected gray target decision model was used to determine the level and ranking of emergency capabilities of the object to be evaluated. Analysis results of an example show that this method can realize the processing of mixed indicator data, and effectively complete the evaluation and sequencing of the emergency capabilities of the objects to be evaluated, which is operable and feasible.

Key words： grid emergency capability assessment      binary connection number theory      weight division      projection grey target decision model      indicator system     
Received: 25 March 2020      Published: 10 June 2021
CLC:  TM 711  
Fund:  中国南方电网有限责任公司科技资助项目（ZBKJXM20180039）
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Zhen-yu LI
Xiao-guo CHEN
Yong-chao SONG
Jian-ping GONG
Zhi-wei YU
Yong-xing ZHU
Zhou-xun LU
Cite this article:

Zhen-yu LI,Xiao-guo CHEN,Yong-chao SONG,Jian-ping GONG,Zhi-wei YU,Yong-xing ZHU,Zhou-xun LU. Application of binary connection number-projection grey target decision theory in power system emergency capability evaluation. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2021, 55(5): 927-934.

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http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.05.013     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2021/V55/I5/927


二元联系数-投影灰靶决策理论在电网应急能力评估中的应用

在电网应急能力评估中存在指标数据类型多样化的问题，本研究介绍基于二元联系数-投影灰靶决策理论的评价方法，并将其应用在电网应急能力评估研究中. 通过研究分析建立具有多元化数据类型的电网应急能力评估基本指标体系；采用二元联系数理论对建立的多类型指标数据体系进行处理，实现数据组成形式上的统一，以便于后续的分析和计算；考虑到指标之间存在的内在联系，采用基于网络层次分析法的权重划分模型进行指标权重的确定；通过投影灰靶决策模型确定待评价对象应急能力水平与排序. 实例分析结果表明，该方法可以实现对混合指标数据的处理，并有效完成对待评价对象应急能力的评估与排序，是具有可操作性与可行性的.


关键词： 电网应急能力评估,  二元联系数理论,  权重划分,  投影灰靶决策模型,  指标体系 
A级指标 第1层指标 第2层指标
电网应急能力
评价指标体系A 		法律基础B1 国家法律法规落实的完备度x11
地方法律法规落实完备度x12
应急组织体系B2 抢修队伍人员数量储备比率x21
应急部门联动情况x22
应急人员训练情况x23
应急体系研究开展情况x24
应急管理人员数量x25
辅助决策功能完善情况x26
政府与应急指挥中心信息
联通情况x27
物资及通讯保障B3 电力应急专用车数量x31
应急专项费用投入百分比x32
通讯系统使用情况x33
灾害预防与预警B4 应急预案演练完备度x41
重要单位应急电源落实情况x42
电网风险评估开展情况x43
灾害应急反应B5 应急救援准备时间x51
突发事件下人员集结时间x52
应急信息报送及时性x53
后期处置B6 灾后总结能力x61
灾后恢复与重建能力x62
Tab.1 Evaluation indicator system for power grid emergency capability
Fig.1 Steps of power grid emergency capability assessment
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 0.40 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 20 [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.5，0.6，0.7] 19
乙 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 0.53 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 21 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 36
丙 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 0.50 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 16 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] 17
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.28 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [30，45] [35，45] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9]
乙 0.35 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [20，40] [30，35] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.8，0.9，1.0]
丙 0.30 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [35，45] [30，40] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9]
Tab.2 Initial data sheet of power grid emergency capability indicators
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.40+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 20+0i 0.6+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 19+0i
乙 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.53+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 21+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 36+0i
丙 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.50+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 16+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 17+0i
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.28+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 37.5+7.5i 40.0+5.0i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i
乙 0.35+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 30.0+10.0i 32.5+2.5i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.9+0.1i
丙 0.30+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 40.0+5.0i 35.0+5.0i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i
Tab.3 Binary number of power grid emergency capability indicators
Fig.2 Indicator correlation graph
指标 权重 指标 权重
x11 0.06688 x32 0.06782
x12 0.03817 x33 0.05365
x21 0.02363 x41 0.15005
x22 0.01221 x42 0.04043
x23 0.07533 x43 0.04541
x24 0.01516 x51 0.05628
x25 0.01008 x52 0.04015
x26 0.04263 x53 0.06596
x27 0.03720 x61 0.05674
x31 0.02349 x62 0.07873
Tab.4 Indicator weight of power grid emergency capability indicators
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 0.27+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.28+0i 0.32+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0i 0.29+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.26+0i
乙 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.37+0i 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i 0.37+0i 0.38+0.33i 0.37+0.33i 0.50+0i
丙 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.35+0i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.28+0i 0.33+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.24+0i
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.30+0i 0.30+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.65+0.67i 0.63+0.6i 0.32+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i
乙 0.38+0i 0.35+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i 0.72+0.56i 0.70+0.8i 0.37+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i
丙 0.32+0i 0.35+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.63+0.78i 0.67+0.6i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i
Tab.5 Standardized data on power grid emergency capability indicators
区域 加权靶心距
正靶心距 负靶心距 正负靶心距
甲 0.0578 0.0155 0.0707
乙 0.0080 0.0650 0.0707
丙 0.0395 0.0321 0.0707
Tab.6 Weighted target distance
区域 投影一致性系数 排序
甲 0.0354 3
乙 0.6050 1
丙 0.1694 2
Tab.7 Grid emergency capability assessment results
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