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浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2023, Vol. 57 Issue (8): 1551-1561    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2023.08.008
土木工程、交通工程     
基于健康监测数据和贝叶斯网络的结构失效概率评估
马帜1,2,3(),罗尧治4,*(),葛慧斌4,万华平4,傅文炜5,沈雁彬4
1. 浙大城市学院 土木工程系，浙江 杭州 310015
2. 浙大城市学院 浙江省城市盾构隧道安全建造与智能养护重点实验室，浙江 杭州 310015
3. 浙大城市学院 城市基础设施智能化浙江省工程研究中心，浙江 杭州 310015
4. 浙江大学 空间结构研究中心，浙江 杭州 310058
5. 苏州科技大学 土木工程学院，江苏 苏州 215009
Failure probability estimation for structures based on health monitoring data and Bayesian network
Zhi MA1,2,3(),Yao-zhi LUO4,*(),Hui-bin GE4,Hua-ping WAN4,Wen-wei FU5,Yan-bin SHEN4
1. Department of Civil Engineering, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, China
2. Key Laboratory of Safe Construction and Intelligent Maintenance for Urban Shield Tunnels of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, China
3. Zhejiang Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Urban Infrastructure, Hangzhou City University, Hangzhou 310015, China
4. Space Structure Research Center, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
5. Department of Civil Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China
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摘要：

基于健康监测数据和贝叶斯网络(BN)，提出结构体系失效概率的实时评估方法，用于结构整体安全状态的动态评价. 根据结构响应监测数据建立贝叶斯动态线性模型(BDLM)，估计结构荷载效应的概率分布，同时结合结构抗力分布，计算构件的时变可靠指标；根据结构主要失效模式构建贝叶斯网络，以描述构件失效与结构整体失效间的依赖关系；通过贝叶斯网络的概率递推从构件可靠指标求得结构体系失效概率，实现结构整体安全状态的量化评估. 利用三杆桁架模型的数值模拟数据和某单层网壳结构静力破坏试验过程的实测数据对该方法进行验证. 结果表明，所提出的结构失效概率评估方法较好地量化了结构的安全状态，并成功预警了结构体系的破坏.
关键词： 结构健康监测;  贝叶斯网络;  结构失效概率评估;  贝叶斯动态线性模型;  时变可靠指标    
Abstract:

Based on health monitoring data and Bayesian network (BN), a real-time estimation method of structural system failure probability was proposed, which was applied for assessing structural safety conditions dynamically. First, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (BDLM) was established using structural health monitoring data, and the probabilistic distribution of the load effect was calculated. Time-varying reliability of structural components was obtained, combined with distribution of structural resistance. Then, the BN was constructed according to the main failure mode of the structure, where the dependency between failure of the components and the structure can be described. Through probability inference of the BN, the failure probability of the structural system can be obtained from the component reliability, and the quantitative assessment of overall structural safety conditions was achieved. Finally, the proposed method was verified by the simulated data of a three-bar truss and the measured data of static failure test of a single layer reticulated shell. Results show that the proposed method properly quantifies the safety condition of the structure and successfully gives the early warning of the structural failure.
Key words: structural health monitoring    Bayesian network    structural failure probability assessment    Bayesian dynamic linear model    time-varying reliability index
收稿日期: 2022-09-26 出版日期: 2023-08-31
CLC:  TU 391  
基金资助: 浙江省自然科学基金资助项目（LQ22E080013）；浙江省空间结构重点实验室资助项目（202107）；浙江省重点研发计划资助项目（2021C03154）
通讯作者: 罗尧治     E-mail: mazhi@hzcu.edu.cn;luoyz@zju.edu.cn
作者简介: 马帜（1992—），女，讲师，从事结构健康监测研究. orcid.org/0000-0001-8239-0687. E-mail： mazhi@hzcu.edu.cn
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马帜
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引用本文:

马帜,罗尧治,葛慧斌,万华平,傅文炜,沈雁彬. 基于健康监测数据和贝叶斯网络的结构失效概率评估[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2023, 57(8): 1551-1561.

Zhi MA,Yao-zhi LUO,Hui-bin GE,Hua-ping WAN,Wen-wei FU,Yan-bin SHEN. Failure probability estimation for structures based on health monitoring data and Bayesian network. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2023, 57(8): 1551-1561.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2023.08.008    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2023/V57/I8/1551

图 1  简单系统的可靠度计算的贝叶斯网络
图 2  三杆桁架结构简图及可能的失效模式
图 3  三杆桁架结构加载过程中的模拟应变数据
图 4  三杆桁架结构可靠度评估的贝叶斯网络
$ {M_1} $ $ {M_2} $ $ {M_3} $ $ P(A = 1|M_i) $
1 1 1 1.0
0 1 1 1.0
1 0 1 1.0
1 1 0 1.0
其他 0
表 1  三杆桁架结构贝叶斯网络的系统节点条件概率表
图 5  三杆桁架结构应变的BDLM预测分布结果
图 6  三杆桁架结构的构件可靠指标
图 7  三杆桁架结构的体系可靠指标及失效概率
图 8  单层网壳静力破坏试验模型简图及现场照片
图 9  结构主要屈曲模态及对应的主要失稳截面
图 10  截面尺寸及截面测点布置
图 11  截面3原始应力数据
图 12  单层网壳结构可靠度评估的贝叶斯网络
$ {J_1} $ $ {J_2} $ $ {J_3} $ $ {J_4} $ $ {J_5} $ $ P(A = 1|J_i) $
1 0, 1 0, 1 0, 1 0, 1 1.0
0 1 1 1 1 1.0
其他 0
表 2  单层网壳结构整体节点A的条件概率表
网络类型 $ {M_1} $ $ {M_2} $ $ {M_3} $ $ {M_4} $ $P({J_1} = 1|M_i)$
网络1 1 1 1 1 1.0
其他 0
网络2 1 1 1 1 1.0
1 1 1 0 1.0
1 0 1 1 1.0
0 1 1 1 1.0
其他 0
网络3 1 1 1 1 1.0
1 1 1 0 1.0
1 0 1 1 1.0
0 1 1 1 1.0
1 1 0 0 1.0
1 0 1 0 1.0
1 0 0 1 1.0
0 1 1 0 1.0
0 1 0 1 1.0
0 0 1 1 1.0
其他 0
表 3  节点 $ {J_1} $的条件概率表
图 13  截面1和3等效应力的BDLM预测分布结果
图 14  单层网壳结构的构件可靠指标
图 15  单层网壳结构的体系可靠指标及失效概率
图 16  单层网壳结构实际破坏情况
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