Prediction model for ground motion in Zhejiang Province induced by Taiwan strong earthquake

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021

Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)

2025, Vol. 59

Issue (8): 1738-1745 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021

Prediction model for ground motion in Zhejiang Province induced by Taiwan strong earthquake

Xu XIE1(

),Bo PANG1,Gangqun YU2,Luoyi GU2,Yonggang SHEN1,*(

)

1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310030, China
2. Zhejiang Earthquake Agency, Hangzhou 310013, China

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Abstract

The seismic characteristics caused by the earthquake were analyzed based on the M7.3 earthquake record in the Hualien Sea area of Taiwan Province on April 3, 2024 in order to predict the impact of a strong earthquake in Taiwan with a magnitude exceeding M7.0 on Zhejiang. The attenuation characteristics of seismic wave propagation were inverted, and a seismic motion prediction model for Zhejiang caused by strong earthquakes in Taiwan was established based on the improved random Green’s function method. Results showed that the seismic motion in Zhejiang caused by the strong earthquake in Taiwan had excellent far-field seismic characteristics with long periods, and the correlation between PGA and epicenter distance was not significant with slow attenuation. The empirical site amplification calculated based on the average H/V spectral ratio accorded with the actual site conditions, which could reflect the excellent period and amplification characteristics of the site in the low-frequency domain. The average geometric attenuation of seismic waves from Taiwan to Zhejiang was 1/r^0.43, and the average quality factor was 255.7f ^0.476 according to the inversion calculation of the stations in Hangshao area. The prediction model established based on the inversion results speculates that even if a strong earthquake close to M7.8 occurs on the east side of Taiwan Island, the possibility of a general site in Zhejiang Province triggering an earthquake intensity of VI or above is very small, and the possibility of damage to ordinary structures is not high.

Key words： far-field ground motion stochastic Green’s function method ground motion simulation Taiwan earthquake seismic wave decay characteristics

Received: 31 July 2024 Published: 28 July 2025

CLC:

P 315

Fund: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52178174)；浙江省地震局科研资助项目（2023zjj03）.

Corresponding Authors: Yonggang SHEN E-mail: xiexu@zju.edu.cn;sygdesign@zju.edu.cn

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Cite this article:

Xu XIE,Bo PANG,Gangqun YU,Luoyi GU,Yonggang SHEN. Prediction model for ground motion in Zhejiang Province induced by Taiwan strong earthquake. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2025, 59(8): 1738-1745.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021 OR https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2025/V59/I8/1738

台湾省强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型

为了预测震级超过M7.0的台湾省强地震对浙江的影响，根据2024年4月3日台湾省花莲海域的M7.3地震记录，分析地震引起的地震动特性. 基于改进随机格林函数法反演地震波传播的衰减特性，建立台湾强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型. 结果表明，台湾强地震引起的浙江地震动具有长周期卓越的远场地震动特征，且PGA与震中距离的相关性不明显，衰减比较缓慢. 根据平均H/V谱比计算得到的经验场地放大与实际场地条件吻合，可以反映场地在低频域的卓越周期和场地放大特性. 根据杭绍地区台站的反演计算，得到从台湾至浙江的地震波几何衰减均值为1/r^0.43，品质因子均值为255.7f ^0.476. 由反演结果建立的预测模型推测可知，即使台湾岛东侧发生接近M7.8的强烈地震，浙江陆地一般场地引发Ⅵ度以上地震强度的可能性很小，普通结构物发生破损震害的可能性不大.

关键词： 远场地震动, 随机格林函数法, 地震动模拟, 台湾地震, 地震波衰减特性

Fig.1 Source position and slip distribution

Fig.2 Station distribution and PGA

Tab.1 Epicenter distance, site type and PGA of 14 stations in Hangzhou Shaoxing region

Fig.3 Example of seismic record of clay and rock surface

Fig.4 Fourier amplitude spectrum

Fig.5 Acceleration response spectrum of horizontal NS direction seismic record

Fig.6 Absolute velocity response spectrum of horizontal direction seismic record

Fig.7 Site amplification

Tab.2 Inversion result of decay characteristics

Fig.8 Seismic simulation result using stochastic Green's function method

Tab.3 PGA of stations in Hangzhou Shaoxing area when seismic moment increasing by 1.5 and 5 times


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