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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (11): 2503-2512    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.019
土木工程、交通工程     
基于地层图像与时序数据的CNN-BiLSTM路堤沉降预测模型
韩同春1,2(),令狐知博1,汪全震1,周建1,2,余锦地3
1. 浙江大学 滨海和城市岩土工程研究中心,浙江 杭州 310058
2. 全省地下空间开发利用重点实验室,浙江 杭州 310058
3. 浙江省水利水电勘测设计院有限责任公司,浙江 杭州 310002
CNN-BiLSTM prediction model for embankment settlement based on stratum images and time series data
Tongchun HAN1,2(),Zhibo LINGHU1,Quanzhen WANG1,Jian ZHOU1,2,Jindi YU3
1. Research Center of Coastal and Urban Geotechnical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2. Zhejiang Key Laboratory of the Development and Utilization of Underground Space, Hangzhou 310058, China
3. Zhejiang Design Institute of Water Conservancy & Hydro-Electric Power Co., Ltd, Hangzhou 310002, China
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摘要:

为了解决软土地区复杂地层路堤沉降预测中时空特征耦合建模难的问题,提出融合多源信息的神经网络模型. 以地层剖面图为模型输入,采用卷积神经网络(CNN)提取土层的空间分布特征,引入残差连接与自注意力机制加强特征提取;结合地下水位与历史沉降数据构成双变量时间序列,利用双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM)建模;通过贝叶斯优化算法寻找最佳参数组合. 基于西险大塘实测数据集上的训练、验证与测试的结果表明,模型的平均绝对误差、均方根误差和决定系数分别达到0.028 6 mm、0.04 mm和0.956 9,优于对比模型,证明了所提模型在复杂地质条件下进行地表沉降预测的有效性和工程应用价值.

关键词: 多源异构数据融合;  深度学习;  路堤沉降预测;  CNN;  双向长短期记忆网络(BiLSTM);  贝叶斯优化算法    
Abstract:

A neural network model integrating multi-source information was proposed to address the challenge of spatiotemporal feature coupling modeling for embankment settlement prediction in soft soil areas with complex stratigraphy. Stratigraphic profile maps were used as the model input. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was employed to extract the spatial distribution characteristics of soil layers. The feature extraction was enhanced with residual connections and a self-attention mechanism. Simultaneously, groundwater level and historical settlement data were combined to form a bivariate time series. This series was modeled using a bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM). The optimal parameter combination was identified through the Bayesian optimization algorithm. Based on training, validation, and testing results from the measured dataset of the Xixian Datang site, the model achieves a mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and coefficient of determination of 0.028 6 mm, 0.04 mm, and 0.956 9, respectively. These results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model over comparison models and confirm its effectiveness and engineering application value for surface settlement prediction under complex geological conditions.

Key words: multi-source heterogeneous data fusion    deep learning    embankment settlement prediction    CNN    bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM)    Bayesian optimization algorithm
收稿日期: 2025-09-09 出版日期: 2026-10-16
CLC:  TP 393  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52178360);浙江省水利工程带科研揭榜挂帅项目(RA+202303).
作者简介: 韩同春(1969—),男,副教授,博士,从事岩土工程研究. orcid.org/0000-0001-6553-6795. E-mail:htc@zju.edu.cn
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引用本文:

韩同春,令狐知博,汪全震,周建,余锦地. 基于地层图像与时序数据的CNN-BiLSTM路堤沉降预测模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(11): 2503-2512.

Tongchun HAN,Zhibo LINGHU,Quanzhen WANG,Jian ZHOU,Jindi YU. CNN-BiLSTM prediction model for embankment settlement based on stratum images and time series data. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(11): 2503-2512.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.019    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I11/2503

图 1  用于加强特征提取的卷积神经网络残差块示意图
图 2  西险大塘路堤典型沉降趋势曲线
图 3  融合多源信息的神经网络模型整体架构示意图
图 4  用于增强CNN特征提取的自注意力机制示意图
图 5  采用5折交叉验证方法对神经网络模型进行训练评估
模块MAERMSER2
CNN+BiLSTM
(基线模型)
0.0381±0.00510.0571±0.01360.9373±0.0293
CNN+BiLSTM+
SA
0.0363±0.00680.0572±0.01520.9415±0.0172
CNN+BiLSTM+
残差连接
0.0371±0.00390.0595±0.00980.9297±0.0266
CNN+BiLSTM+
SA+残差连接
0.0323±0.00400.0476±0.00840.9591±0.0163
表 1  融合多源信息的神经网络模型消融实验性能指标对比
参数搜索范围最佳值
学习率[1.0×10?5, 1.0×10?2]0.002 2
Dropout率[0.0, 0.5]0.165
LSTM 隐藏单元数[32, 64, 128, ···, 512]256
批量大小[4, 8, 16, 32]8
表 2  利用贝叶斯搜索优化神经网络模型超参数的范围设定及最佳值
图 6  基于贝叶斯优化算法的模型超参数寻优过程折线图
图 7  基于贝叶斯优化结果评估的神经网络模型超参数重要性柱状图
图 8  贝叶斯优化过程中单个超参数对目标函数值的影响分析
图 9  贝叶斯优化过程中超参数组合对目标函数值的影响分析
图 10  神经网络模型在测试集上的沉降预测值与真实值对比
图 11  神经网络模型在测试集上的沉降预测误差分布直方图
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