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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (9): 2031-2041    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.09.021
土木工程、交通工程     
基于时空特征与交互关系建模的换道意图预测
高帅帅1(),魏诚1,*(),惠飞1,张竟成1,宋汉辰2
1. 长安大学 电子与控制工程学院,陕西 西安 710064
2. 西安主函数智能科技有限公司,陕西 西安 712039
Lane-changing intention prediction based on spatiotemporal feature and interaction modeling
Shuaishuai GAO1(),Cheng WEI1,*(),Fei HUI1,Jingcheng ZHANG1,Hanchen SONG2
1. School of Electronics and Control Engineering, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
2. Xi’an Mainfunc Intelligent Technology Limited Company, Xi’an 712039, China
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摘要:

为了准确预测周围车辆的换道意图,提高自动驾驶车辆的安全性与可靠性,提出基于Transformer和图注意力神经网络(GATv2)的时空联合换道意图预测模型. 采用对称指数平均滤波对NGSIM原始数据进行平滑处理,利用差分方法重新计算速度和加速度并去除异常值,通过建立车辆八邻域,对目标车辆及周围车辆的数据进行统一化处理,为模型训练验证提供基础. 使用Transformer多头注意力挖掘时序依赖关系,利用GATv2进行每个时间步车辆间的交互关系量化,构建基于时空特征与多车交互关系的Transformer-GATv2换道预测模型. 实验表明,相较于其他基准模型,所提出的模型在准确率、召回率和F1分数等指标上均具有明显优势,达到98.04%的预测精度,证明模型具有较好的换道意图预测精度和提前预测能力. 将该模型部署于六自由度驾驶模拟器与CARLA联合仿真平台,开展模型在环测试,验证了模型在实际场景下的可用性.

关键词: 交通工程换道意图预测自动驾驶Transformer图神经网络    
Abstract:

A spatiotemporal joint lane-change intention prediction model based on Transformer and graph attention neural network (GATv2) was proposed in order to accurately predict lane-changing intention of surrounding vehicles and improve the safety and reliability of autonomous vehicles. Symmetric exponential average filtering was applied to smooth the raw NGSIM data. Then velocity and acceleration were recalculated by using the difference method, and outliers were removed. The data of the target vehicle and its surrounding vehicles were unified by establishing an eight-neighborhood for each vehicle, providing a foundation for model training and validation. Transformer multi-head attention was used to mine temporal dependency, while GATv2 was employed to quantify the interaction relationship between vehicles at each time step. Then a Transformer-GATv2 lane-changing prediction model based on spatiotemporal feature and multi-vehicle interaction was constructed. The experimental results showed that the proposed model significantly outperformed other baseline models in accuracy, recall, F1-score, and other metrics. A prediction accuracy of 98.04% was achieved, which demonstrated superior lane-changing intention prediction performance and strong early prediction capability. The model was deployed on a six-degree-of-freedom driving simulator integrated with the CARLA co-simulation platform for model-in-the-loop testing, verifying the usability of the model in real-world scenario.

Key words: traffic engineering    lane-changing intention prediction    autonomous driving    Transformer    graph neural network
收稿日期: 2026-01-27 出版日期: 2026-07-20
CLC:  U 495  
基金资助: 陕西省重点研发计划资助项目(2025PT-ZCK-71, 2024CY-JJQ-55);陕西省博士后科研资助项目(2025BSHSDZZ261).
通讯作者: 魏诚     E-mail: gaoshuaishuai@chd.edu.cn;chengwei@chd.edu.cn
作者简介: 高帅帅(2002—),男,硕士生,从事自动驾驶研究. orcid.org/0009-0002-5964-0654. E-mail:gaoshuaishuai@chd.edu.cn
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引用本文:

高帅帅,魏诚,惠飞,张竟成,宋汉辰. 基于时空特征与交互关系建模的换道意图预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(9): 2031-2041.

Shuaishuai GAO,Cheng WEI,Fei HUI,Jingcheng ZHANG,Hanchen SONG. Lane-changing intention prediction based on spatiotemporal feature and interaction modeling. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(9): 2031-2041.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.09.021        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I9/2031

图 1  Transformer时序特征提取模块的架构
图 2  GATv2多车交互空间特征提取模块的架构
图 3  时空联合换道意图预测模型的整体架构
图 4  目标车辆及八邻域车辆位置的示意图
字段数据描述单位
Vehicle_ID车辆编号
Global_Time时间戳ms
Local_X车头中心与检测路段左侧的距离feet
Local_Y车头中心与检测路段起点的距离feet
v_Class车辆类型:1为摩托车,2为小汽车,3为大型车
v_Vel车辆瞬时速度feet/s
V AcC车辆瞬时加速度feet/s2
Lane ID车辆的当前车道位置
表 1  NGSIM原始数据字段说明
图 5  I-80和US-101研究路段的结构示意图
图 6  I-80路段示例车辆数据处理前、后的对比
图 7  左换道车辆关键标注时刻的示意图
算法1 数据样本提取与标注算法
输入:单车轨迹$ \left\{\left.\left({x}_{i},{y}_{i},{{\mathrm{lane}}}_{i},{t}_{i}\right)\right\}\right._{i=1}^{N} $$ \Delta t=0.1~\mathrm{s} $,窗口长度$ T $,航向角阈值$ {\theta }_{\mathrm{s}} $
输出:样本集$ D $,标签$ \in \left\{\mathrm{LK},\mathrm{LLC},\text{RLC}\right\} $
1. $ D=\phi $
2. 若$ \forall i\geqslant 2 $$ \text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i}=\text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i-1} $
3.  以步长$ \Delta t $滑窗提取长度为$ T $的轨迹序列$ S\left({t}_{\text{cur}}\right)= \{(x,y, v,a,\cdots),t\in \left[t_{\text{cur}}-T,t_{\text{cur}}\right]\} $,并将其全部标注为LK,放入$ D $.
4. 否则(存在$ \text{laneID} $变化)
5.  将$ \text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i}\neq \text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i-1} $时刻定义为换道点$ t_{{B}} $(即图7B点)
6.  计算每一时刻的车辆航向角$ \theta =\arctan \left(\dfrac{{x}_{i}-{x}_{i-3}}{{y}_{i}-{y}_{i-3}}\right) $
7. 从$ t_{{B}}$沿时间轴向前遍历$ {\theta }_{i} $,若连续3个采样点的车辆航向角$ \left| \theta \right| \leqslant {\theta }_{\mathrm{s}} $,则将首次满足时刻记为$ t_{0} $. 同理从$ t_{{B}} $沿时间轴向后遍历$ {\theta }_{i} $,若连续3个采样点的车辆航向角$ \left| \theta \right| \leqslant {\theta }_{\mathrm{s}} $,则将首次满足时刻记为$ t_{{C}} $(即图7C点)
8.  将换道起点定义为$ {{t}}_{{A}}={{t}}_{0}-1\;{\mathrm{s}} $(即图7A点)
9.  以步长$ \Delta t $滑窗提取长度为$ T $的轨迹序列$ S\left({t}_{\text{cur}}\right)= \left\{\left(x,y,v,a,\cdots \right),t\in \left[t_{\text{cur}}-T,t_{\text{cur}}\right]\right\} $
   a. 若$ t_{\text{cur}}\in \left[t_{{A}},t_{{B}}\right] $且变道后$ \text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i} $减小,则标注LLC,放入$ D $
   b. 若$ t_{\text{cur}}\in \left[t_{{A}},t_{{B}}\right] $且变道后$ \text{laneI}{\mathrm{D}}_{i} $增大,则标注RLC,放入$ D $
10. 返回标注数据集$ D $
  
模型类别$ P $/%$ R $/%F1 /%$ {A}_{\text{cc}} $/%
Social-LSTM
(模型A)
LK81.2485.3783.2587.99
LLC90.6791.2490.96
RLC92.6687.3689.93
ST-GCN
(模型B)
LK86.8390.5688.6692.17
LLC94.3693.0393.69
RLC95.6892.9294.28
Transformer
(模型C)
LK94.3290.5192.3795.02
LLC95.4498.6997.04
RLC95.2695.8695.56
GATv2
(模型D)
LK70.2171.9571.0778.74
LLC82.4683.8083.12
RLC83.9380.4982.17
Transformer-GATv2
(模型E)
LK95.5393.0894.2996.24
LLC97.1598.4897.81
RLC96.0197.1796.59
表 2  输入长度为1 s时不同模型的性能对比
模型类别$ P $/%$ R $/%F1 /%$ {A}_{\text{cc}} $/%
Social-LSTM
(模型A)
LK85.7890.7788.2091.64
LLC94.6192.1393.36
RLC95.0792.0393.53
ST-GCN(模型B)LK91.0493.8192.4194.86
LLC97.4194.6095.98
RLC96.3296.1796.25
Transformer(模型C)LK96.6993.3494.9896.71
LLC97.4698.5397.99
RLC96.0098.2797.12
GATv2(模型D)LK72.3077.3574.7480.39
LLC83.6284.0683.84
RLC86.2279.7682.87
Transformer-GATv2
(模型E)
LK96.3796.1796.2797.52
LLC98.2898.6498.46
RLC97.9097.7597.82
表 3  输入长度为1.5 s时不同模型的性能对比
模型类别$ P $/%$ R $/%F1 /%$ {A}_{\text{cc}} $/%
Social-LSTM
(模型A)
LK87.1794.8190.8393.46
LLC96.9894.3995.67
RLC97.1091.1994.05
ST-GCN(模型B)LK91.6996.5994.0895.94
LLC98.7494.5596.60
RLC97.7796.7097.23
Transformer
(模型C)
LK95.3096.7596.0297.33
LLC98.2399.1698.70
RLC98.4996.0797.27
GATv2
(模型D)
LK71.2478.3474.6380.53
LLC86.4085.3285.86
RLC85.3577.9281.47
Transformer-GATv2
(模型E)
LK97.5196.5997.0598.04
LLC98.5499.0698.80
RLC98.0798.4898.27
表 4  输入长度为2 s时不同模型的性能对比
图 8  不同模型的训练过程损失与准确率曲线
图 9  输入长度为1 s时的各模型错分表
图 10  输入长度为1.5 s时的各模型错分表
图 11  输入长度为2 s时的各模型错分表
T/sAcc/%
Δt = 0.5 sΔt = 1.0 sΔt = 1.5 sΔt = 2.0 sΔt = 2.5 sΔt = 3.0 s
197.8297.8297.5595.9189.6077.93
1.598.9198.9197.0091.0181.7469.75
299.7398.9197.4688.2874.9362.94
表 5  不同输入长度与前瞻时间下的模型预测准确率
图 12  左变道示例车辆的空间交互注意力分布
图 13  左变道示例车辆的空间热力交互图
图 14  不同空间区域车辆的平均注意力权重变化曲线
图 15  模型在环仿真测试平台
图 16  模型在环测试流程图
图 17  模型在环仿真测试输出截图
tin/sAint/%
tpre = 0~0.5 stpre = 0.5~1.0 stpre = 1.0~1.5 stpre = 1.5~2.0 stpre = 2.0~2.5 stpre = 2.5~3.0 stpre = 3.0~3.5 s
1.098.597.397.496.293.485.275.2
1.597.796.896.194.286.775.362.1
2.098.798.597.193.284.370.160.3
表 6  模型在环仿真测试的结果统计
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