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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (9): 2023-2030    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.09.020
土木工程、交通工程     
动态重分配下城市群客运网络抗毁性评估
马飞(),薛圆圆,孙启鹏*(),刘擎,马仲,杨治杰
长安大学 经济与管理学院,陕西 西安 710064
Resilience assessment of urban agglomeration passenger transport network under dynamic redistribution
Fei MA(),Yuanyuan XUE,Qipeng SUN*(),Qing LIU,Zhong MA,Zhijie YANG
School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, China
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摘要:

为了有效评估突发事件下城市群多模式客运网络的抗毁性,从动态客流重分配视角,基于Space-P方法构建城市群多模式客运网络模型,建立兼顾网络结构稳健性与旅客可达性的综合抗毁性评估指标. 提出基于剩余容量的动态客流重分配策略,引入旅客换乘意愿与容量调节系数修正客流重分配权重,对比静态策略,分析动态策略对网络抗毁性的提升程度并识别关键节点. 以长江中游城市群为例进行实例研究,结果表明,关键节点失效显著加速客运网络服务效能的衰减. 无论何种失效情景,动态策略均能够有效延缓网络功能的退化,客运网络服务效能整体维持在0.6以上. 当旅客换乘意愿大于等于0.4,容量调节系数小于等于0.4时,网络表现出更优的抗毁性.

关键词: 动态客流客流重分配策略抗毁性评估城市群多模式客运网络    
Abstract:

A network model was constructed based on the Space-P method from the perspective of dynamic passenger flow redistribution in order to effectively evaluate the resilience of multi-modal passenger transport network in urban agglomeration under emergency. A comprehensive resilience evaluation index was established to consider both network structural robustness and passenger accessibility. A dynamic passenger flow redistribution strategy based on residual capacity was proposed. Passenger transfer willingness and capacity adjustment coefficient were introduced to modify the redistribution weight. The improvement of network resilience by the dynamic strategy was analyzed through a comparison with a static strategy. Key nodes within the network were identified. An empirical case study was conducted on the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. Results showed that the degradation of passenger transport network service performance was significantly accelerated by the failure of key nodes. The degradation of network function was effectively delayed by the dynamic strategy under any failure scenario. The overall service performance of the passenger transport network was maintained above 0.6. Superior network resilience was exhibited when the passenger transfer willingness was greater than or equal to 0.4 and the capacity adjustment coefficient was less than or equal to 0.4.

Key words: dynamic passenger flow    passenger flow redistribution strategy    resilience assessment    urban agglomeration    multi-modal passenger transport network
收稿日期: 2025-09-23 出版日期: 2026-07-20
CLC:  U 125  
基金资助: 国家社科基金重点资助项目(25AGL034);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72104034,72104037);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2024-JC-YBMS-359,2023-JC-QN-0793);陕西省社会科学基金资助项目(2024R009);长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(300102235625).
通讯作者: 孙启鹏     E-mail: mafeixa@chd.edu.cn;sunqip@chd.edu.cn
作者简介: 马飞(1979—),男,教授,博导,从事交通基础设施韧性研究. orcid.org/0000-0003-1398-5972. E-mail:mafeixa@chd.edu.cn
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引用本文:

马飞,薛圆圆,孙启鹏,刘擎,马仲,杨治杰. 动态重分配下城市群客运网络抗毁性评估[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(9): 2023-2030.

Fei MA,Yuanyuan XUE,Qipeng SUN,Qing LIU,Zhong MA,Zhijie YANG. Resilience assessment of urban agglomeration passenger transport network under dynamic redistribution. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(9): 2023-2030.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.09.020        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I9/2023

图 1  城市群客运子网的结构及节点复合关系
图 2  客运网络级联失效负载转移的示意图
图 3  长江中游城市群“公路-高铁-普铁”多模式客运网络的拓扑图
网络$ \overline{K} $LM
Y10.5232.7970.605
Y12.4005.5780.445
Y27.8052.3910.651
Y39.0402.1440.617
表 1  长江中游城市群客运网络的拓扑结构特征指标
排序DCBCRC
失效节点ΔP失效节点ΔP失效节点ΔP
1上饶综合站31.38上饶综合站78.22南昌综合站226.09
2长沙南30.99南昌综合站270.31上饶综合站25.72
3南昌综合站130.34长沙南70.12长沙南21.31
4鹰潭综合站28.95南昌综合站132.99黄石复合站18.38
5南昌综合站227.32吉安综合站32.62宜昌综合站17.72
6宜昌综合站26.99抚州长运客运总站32.08抚州长运客运总站15.62
7鄂州综合站26.10鹰潭综合站31.73宜春汽车总站14.31
8景德镇汽车站25.81宜春27.90鹰潭综合站14.29
9九江汽车总站24.86宜昌综合站26.46景德镇汽车站12.44
10黄石复合站21.58鄂州综合站26.11娄底汽车南站11.15
表 2  长江中游城市群多模式客运网络服务效能损失率位列前10名的节点
图 4  不同策略组合下长江中游城市群多模式客运网络抗毁性随攻击次数的变化
图 5  不同策略组合下换乘意愿对城市群多模式客运网络抗毁性的影响
图 6  不同策略组合下容量调节系数对城市群多模式客运网络抗毁性的影响
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