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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (5): 998-1005    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.009
能源与动力工程     
基于改进LSTM的商业建筑冷负荷预测模型
董芳楠1(),武强1,刘佳瑶1,于军琪2
1. 陕西工业职业技术大学 数智城市学院,咸阳市建筑健康监测与绿色加固重点实验室,陕西 咸阳 712000
2. 西安建筑科技大学 信息与控制工程学院,陕西 西安 710311
Cooling load prediction model for commercial buildings based on improved LSTM
Fangnan DONG1(),Qiang WU1,Jiayao LIU1,Junqi YU2
1. College of Digital Intelligence City, Xianyang Key Laboratory of Building Health Monitoring and Green Reinforcement, Shaanxi Polytechnic University, Xianyang 712000, China
2. College of Information and Control Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710311, China
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摘要:

传统冷负荷预测多未考虑时间因素,导致预测效果差和泛化能力低,为此提出基于权重衰减适应性矩估计优化算法的长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络预测模型(WAdam-LSTM),用于建筑的高精度冷负荷预测. 采用交叉相关函数得到变量最佳特征作为输入变量,更新LSTM变量参数时引入权重衰减项,构建WAdam-LSTM. 以2个典型大型商业建筑逐时冷负荷数据为样本开展模型预测性能对比实验. 结果表明:解耦权重衰减项的引入提高了优化算法的稳定性和收敛性,适用于LSTM网络的参数优化;WAdam-LSTM比SVR、SCOA-LSTM和Adam-LSTM的预测效果更准确,均方误差分别下降了83%、66%和30%;WAdam-LSTM具有比单一模型(LSTM、SVR和BPNN)和混合预测模型(SCOA-LSTM和Adam-LSTM)更强的泛化能力,能对不同商业建筑不同月份的冷负荷进行精确预测.

关键词: 商业建筑冷负荷长短期记忆(LSTM)Adam算法预测性能    
Abstract:

Traditional cooling load prediction methods often neglect temporal factors, leading to poor prediction performance and low generalization ability. To address these issues, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model optimized by the weight decay adaptive moment estimation algorithm (WAdam-LSTM) was proposed for high-precision building cooling load prediction. The cross-correlation function was employed to identify optimal feature variables as model inputs. WAdam-LSTM was constructed by introducing a weight decay term during the update of LSTM variable parameters. Hourly cooling load data from two representative large commercial buildings were used to evaluate and compare model prediction performance. Results show that the incorporation of the decoupled weight decay term enhances the stability and convergence of the optimization algorithm, making it suitable for LSTM network parameter optimization. WAdam-LSTM demonstrates superior prediction accuracy compared to SVR, SCOA-LSTM, and Adam-LSTM, with mean square error reductions of 83%, 66%, and 30%, respectively. WAdam-LSTM exhibits stronger generalization ability than single models (LSTM, SVR, and BPNN) and hybrid prediction models (SCOA-LSTM and Adam-LSTM), enabling precise cooling load predictions for different commercial buildings across varying months.

Key words: commercial buildings    cooling load    long short-term memory(LSTM)    Adam algorithm    predictive performance
收稿日期: 2025-06-10 出版日期: 2026-05-06
CLC:  TU 831  
基金资助: 陕西工业职业技术大学科研计划项目(2024YKYB-021);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3802700).
作者简介: 董芳楠(1997—),女,助教,博士生,从事建筑节能与优化研究. orcid.org/0009-0000-7178-8390. E-mail:dfangnan@xauat.edu.cn
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引用本文:

董芳楠,武强,刘佳瑶,于军琪. 基于改进LSTM的商业建筑冷负荷预测模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(5): 998-1005.

Fangnan DONG,Qiang WU,Jiayao LIU,Junqi YU. Cooling load prediction model for commercial buildings based on improved LSTM. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(5): 998-1005.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.009        https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I5/998

图 1  冷负荷预测模型架构图
研究对象S/(104 m2H/mL/mTrww
建筑125.040.650.110.65(南),0.45(东),
0.44(西),0.50(北)
建筑22.116.040.130.55(南),0.49(东),
0.34(西),0.49(北)
表 1  研究对象特征信息
研究
对象
建筑营业时间时间范围NS
总数训练集测试集
建筑18:00—22:002023年6月2日—
8月12日
108097995
2023年6月43538445
2023年7月46541445
2023年8月18012945
建筑28:00—21:002023年6月1日—
8月31日
12881162135
2023年6月420
37836
2023年7月434
39236
2023年8月43439236
表 2  建筑物冷负荷样本数据统计
设备名称设备品牌精度测量范围
温湿度传感器建大仁科±0.3 ℃,
±2% RH
?40 ~ 80 ℃,
0% ~ 100% RH
太阳辐射传感器普锐森社1 W·m?20 ~ 1800 W·m?2
微型风速传感器YGC-FS0.1 m·s?10 ~ 70 m·s?1
智能电表威胜-DTZ3410.2 s
表 3  冷负荷数据采集设备参数信息
图 2  建筑物冷负荷影响因素相关性分析图$(|\tau| \leqslant 6 \;\text{h})$
参数数值参数数值
学习率η0.001迭代次数e100
衰减率β1, β20.9, 0.999隐藏层数h1
权重衰减率ω0.99隐藏单元数u13
极小值ε1.0×10?8批次c15
表 4  模型预测性能对比实验的参数设置
图 3  不同隐藏层数对应损失值随迭代次数的变化
图 4  不同数据集上的隐藏层数对应损失值对比
图 5  不同模型的逐时空调能耗预测结果绝对误差
建筑物预测模型CV-RMSEMAPEMSE
建筑1LSTM0.15313.100.272
Adam-LSTM0.1075.700.083
SVR0.16316.200.354
BPNN0.19017.030.504
SCOA-LSTM0.12111.600.173
WAdam-LSTM0.0632.700.058
建筑2LSTM0.15319.400.269
Adam-LSTM0.07910.900.146
SVR0.17315.700.312
BPNN0.15718.140.474
SCOA-LSTM0.11210.900.146
WAdam-LSTM0.0725.200.059
表 5  不同冷负荷预测模型的性能指标对比
图 6  LSTM优化算法的收敛特性曲线对比
建筑月份模型CV-RMSE建筑月份模型CV-RMSE
建筑16月LSTM1.387建筑26月LSTM1.197
SVR2.659SVR2.114
BPNN3.019BPNN2.546
Adam-LSTM1.113Adam-LSTM1.000
SCOA-LSTM0.641SCOA-LSTM0.641
WAdam-LSTM0.761WAdam-LSTM0.833
7月LSTM1.8127月LSTM1.806
SVR2.422SVR2.359
BPNN2.767BPNN2.871
Adam-LSTM1.066Adam-LSTM1.057
SCOA-LSTM0.867SCOA-LSTM0.812
WAdam-LSTM0.653WAdam-LSTM0.487
8月LSTM1.8038月LSTM1.707
SVR2.387SVR2.308
BPNN2.281BPNN2.436
Adam-LSTM1.141Adam-LSTM1.108
SCOA-LSTM1.478SCOA-LSTM1.337
WAdam-LSTM0.592WAdam-LSTM0.595
表 6  不同模型对不同月份建筑物冷负荷预测准确性的对比
图 7  预测模型的计算复杂度对比
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