e-fuels助力国际航运深度脱碳的策略

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008

浙江大学学报(工学版)

2026, Vol. 60

Issue (11): 2383-2394 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008

机械工程

e-fuels助力国际航运深度脱碳的策略

张璇1(

),金超2,*(

),AMPAHJeffrey Dankwa1,李婧瑶2,杨洁2,黄志雄1,刘海峰1,3,尧命发1

1. 天津大学先进内燃动力全国重点实验室，天津 300072
2. 天津大学环境科学与工程学院，天津 300350
3. 广西大学机械工程学院，广西壮族自治区南宁 530004

Role of e-fuels in deep decarbonization strategies for international shipping

Xuan ZHANG1(

),Chao JIN2,*(

),Jeffrey Dankwa AMPAH1,Jingyao LI2,Jie YANG2,Zhixiong HUANG1,Haifeng LIU1,3,Mingfa YAO1

1. State Key Laboratory of Engines, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
3. School of Mechanical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China

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摘要：

评估e-fuels在实现国际航运到2050年净零排放中的作用及其对全球能源—土地—水系统的影响. 基于全球变化评估模型（GCAM），构建“可再生电力—绿氢—碳源—多类e-fuels合成—终端消费部门”的全链条模块，设置基准情景与JUST-efuel情景进行对比分析. 结果表明，e-fuels通过优化燃料结构、降低燃料排放强度与减少服务需求这3条路径推动国际航运脱碳；e-fuels至2040年成为主导燃料，2050年航运服务需求较基准情景下降约33.3%. e-fuels供应呈现多元化特征，以绿氢为核心，e-甲醇和e-二甲醚作为主要补充，e-氨与e-柴油占比较低. e-fuels的部署将推动制氢供应结构的转变，绿电制氢自2035年后迅速占优，拉动可再生能源发电量的提升；该部署能够降低对生物质依赖，缓解对土地、水与农业资源的竞争. e-fuels不仅为国际航运深度脱碳提供了可行方案，也为能源—交通—环境系统的协同转型提供了重要路径. 实现该转型依赖于大规模清洁电力供应与跨部门系统规划.

关键词： e-fuels; 国际航运; 绿电; 深度脱碳; 净零排放

Abstract:

The role of e-fuels in achieving net-zero emissions in international shipping by 2050 and their impacts on the global energy–land–water system were evaluated. An integrated supply-chain module linking renewable electricity, green hydrogen production, carbon sources, synthesis of multiple e-fuels, and end-use sectors was developed based on the global change analysis model (GCAM). A reference scenario and a JUST-efuel scenario were constructed and compared. The results show that decarbonization in international shipping is driven by e-fuels through three pathways: altering the fuel structure, reducing fuel emissions intensity, and decreasing service demand. By 2040, e-fuels become the dominant shipping fuel, and shipping service demand in 2050 is approximately 33.3% lower than in the reference scenario. The supply of e-fuels exhibits a diversified pattern: with green hydrogen at its core, followed by e-methanol and e-dimethyl ether as key supplements, while e-ammonia and e-diesel maintain relatively minor shares. The deployment of e-fuels reshapes the hydrogen supply structure: green-electricity-based hydrogen production rapidly becomes dominant after 2035, thereby driving an increase in renewable power generation. Additionally, this pathway may reduce reliance on biomass and alleviate competition for land, water and agricultural resources. Overall, e-fuels not only provide a feasible solution for deep decarbonization in international shipping but also offer important pathways for the synergistic transformation of energy, transportation, and environmental systems. Nonetheless, this transition still relies on sufficient clean power supply and integrated cross-sectoral planning.

Key words: e-fuels international shipping green electricity deep decarbonization net-zero emissions

收稿日期: 2025-12-19 出版日期: 2026-10-16

CLC:

TK 91

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目（22461142138）.

通讯作者: 金超 E-mail: xuan_zhang@tju.edu.cn;jinchao@tju.edu.cn

作者简介: 张璇（1999—），女，博士生，从事全球能源碳中和及碳移除宏观策略研究. orcid.org/0009-0007-5421-6199. E-mail：xuan_zhang@tju.edu.cn

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引用本文:

张璇,金超,AMPAHJeffrey Dankwa,李婧瑶,杨洁,黄志雄,刘海峰,尧命发. e-fuels助力国际航运深度脱碳的策略[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2026, 60(11): 2383-2394.

Xuan ZHANG,Chao JIN,Jeffrey Dankwa AMPAH,Jingyao LI,Jie YANG,Zhixiong HUANG,Haifeng LIU,Mingfa YAO. Role of e-fuels in deep decarbonization strategies for international shipping. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(11): 2383-2394.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008 或 https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2026/V60/I11/2383

表 1 燃料温室气体强度的减排目标[28]

表 2 脱碳策略设计情景

图 1 e-fuels模型框架

表 3 e-fuels生产端的非能源成本参数假设

图 2 不同情景下的国际航运温室气体排放对比

图 3 不同情景下的单位运输工作碳排放强度对比

图 4 燃料温室气体强度对比

图 5 国际航运的服务需求

图 6 不同情景下的国际航运服务总成本

图 7 不同情景下的国际航运燃料消耗

图 8 2050年国际航运燃料消耗结构

图 9 各类e-fuels的产量

图 10 绿氢与e-甲醇在不同情景下的应用变化

图 11 不同制氢技术路径的比较

图 12 2050年不同制氢技术的占比

图 13 不同情景下按能源分类的电力生产结构

图 14 不同情景下土地、水和肥料使用变化

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