台湾省强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021

浙江大学学报(工学版)

2025, Vol. 59

Issue (8): 1738-1745 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021

土木工程、交通工程

台湾省强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型

谢旭1(

),庞博1,余刚群2,顾泺怡2,申永刚1,*(

)

1. 浙江大学建筑工程学院，浙江杭州 310030
2. 浙江省地震局，浙江杭州 310013

Prediction model for ground motion in Zhejiang Province induced by Taiwan strong earthquake

Xu XIE1(

),Bo PANG1,Gangqun YU2,Luoyi GU2,Yonggang SHEN1,*(

)

1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310030, China
2. Zhejiang Earthquake Agency, Hangzhou 310013, China

全文: PDF(1611 KB) HTML

摘要：

为了预测震级超过M7.0的台湾省强地震对浙江的影响，根据2024年4月3日台湾省花莲海域的M7.3地震记录，分析地震引起的地震动特性. 基于改进随机格林函数法反演地震波传播的衰减特性，建立台湾强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型. 结果表明，台湾强地震引起的浙江地震动具有长周期卓越的远场地震动特征，且PGA与震中距离的相关性不明显，衰减比较缓慢. 根据平均H/V谱比计算得到的经验场地放大与实际场地条件吻合，可以反映场地在低频域的卓越周期和场地放大特性. 根据杭绍地区台站的反演计算，得到从台湾至浙江的地震波几何衰减均值为1/r^0.43，品质因子均值为255.7f ^0.476. 由反演结果建立的预测模型推测可知，即使台湾岛东侧发生接近M7.8的强烈地震，浙江陆地一般场地引发Ⅵ度以上地震强度的可能性很小，普通结构物发生破损震害的可能性不大.

关键词： 远场地震动; 随机格林函数法; 地震动模拟; 台湾地震; 地震波衰减特性

Abstract:

The seismic characteristics caused by the earthquake were analyzed based on the M7.3 earthquake record in the Hualien Sea area of Taiwan Province on April 3, 2024 in order to predict the impact of a strong earthquake in Taiwan with a magnitude exceeding M7.0 on Zhejiang. The attenuation characteristics of seismic wave propagation were inverted, and a seismic motion prediction model for Zhejiang caused by strong earthquakes in Taiwan was established based on the improved random Green’s function method. Results showed that the seismic motion in Zhejiang caused by the strong earthquake in Taiwan had excellent far-field seismic characteristics with long periods, and the correlation between PGA and epicenter distance was not significant with slow attenuation. The empirical site amplification calculated based on the average H/V spectral ratio accorded with the actual site conditions, which could reflect the excellent period and amplification characteristics of the site in the low-frequency domain. The average geometric attenuation of seismic waves from Taiwan to Zhejiang was 1/r^0.43, and the average quality factor was 255.7f ^0.476 according to the inversion calculation of the stations in Hangshao area. The prediction model established based on the inversion results speculates that even if a strong earthquake close to M7.8 occurs on the east side of Taiwan Island, the possibility of a general site in Zhejiang Province triggering an earthquake intensity of VI or above is very small, and the possibility of damage to ordinary structures is not high.

Key words: far-field ground motion stochastic Green’s function method ground motion simulation Taiwan earthquake seismic wave decay characteristics

收稿日期: 2024-07-31 出版日期: 2025-07-28

P 315

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52178174)；浙江省地震局科研资助项目（2023zjj03）.

通讯作者: 申永刚 E-mail: xiexu@zju.edu.cn;sygdesign@zju.edu.cn

作者简介: 谢旭（1963—），男，教授，博士，从事桥梁结构抗震设计的研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-4247-0487. E-mail：xiexu@zju.edu.cn

	服务
	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	作者相关文章
	谢旭
	庞博
	余刚群
	顾泺怡
	申永刚

引用本文:

谢旭,庞博,余刚群,顾泺怡,申永刚. 台湾省强地震引起的浙江地震动预测模型[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2025, 59(8): 1738-1745.

Xu XIE,Bo PANG,Gangqun YU,Luoyi GU,Yonggang SHEN. Prediction model for ground motion in Zhejiang Province induced by Taiwan strong earthquake. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2025, 59(8): 1738-1745.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2025.08.021 或 https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2025/V59/I8/1738

图 1 震源位置及滑移量分布

图 2 台站分布和PGA

表 1 杭绍地区14个台站的震中距离、场地类型和PGA

图 3 土层和岩石地表面的地震记录例

图 4 傅里叶振幅谱

图 5 水平NS方向地震记录的加速度反应谱

图 6 水平方向地震记录的绝对速度反应谱

图 7 场地放大

表 2 衰减特性的反演结果

图 8 利用随机格林函数法得到的地震动模拟结果

表 3 地震矩增大1.5倍和5倍时杭绍地区各台站的PGA

1	SEED H B, ROMO M P, SUN J I, et al The Mexico earthquake of September 19, 1985: relationships between soil conditions and earthquake ground motions[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2012, 4 (4): 687- 729
2	SEED R B, DICKENSON S E, IDRISS I M Principal geotechnical aspects of the 1989 loma prieta earthquake[J]. Soils and Foundations, 2008, 31 (1): 1- 26
3	HATAYAMA K, ZAMA S, NISHI H, et al Long-period strong ground motion and damage to oil storage tanks due to the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake[J]. Zisin Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan, 2004, 57 (2): 83- 103
4	梁兴文, 董振平, 王应生, 等. 汶川地震中离震中较远地区的高层建筑的震害 [J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2009, 29(1): 24-31. LIANG Xingwen, DONG Zhenping, WANG Yingsheng, et al. Damage to tall buildings in areas with large epicentral distance during M8. 0 Wenchuan earthquake [J]. Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 2009, 29(1): 24-31.
5	UETAKE T Long-period ground motion of the Tokyo bay area observed from the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake, foreshock and aftershocks[J]. Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, 2012, 12 (5): 192- 206
6	FUJINO Y, SIRINGORINGO D, NAMIKAWA K, et al Investigation of the Yokohama-Bay cable-stayed bridge seismic response characteristics subjected to the 2011 Great East-Japan Earthquake[J]. Proceedings of the JSCE Earthquake Engineering Symposium, 2013, 69 (2): 372- 391
7	杨伟林, 朱升初, 洪海春, 等汶川地震远场地震动特征及其对长周期结构影响的分析[J]. 防灾减灾工程学报, 2009, 29 (4): 473- 478 YANG Weilin, ZHU Shengchu, HONG Haichun, et al Characteristics of far-field ground motion of Wenchuan Earthquake and the effect on long-periodic structures[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2009, 29 (4): 473- 478 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2132.2009.04.020
8	谭潜, 李英民, 向渊明, 等远场长周期地震动特征[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2019, 39 (5): 177- 188 TAN Qian, LI Yingmin, XIANG Yuanming, et al Study on characteristics of far-field long period ground motion[J]. Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 2019, 39 (5): 177- 188
9	高剑平, 高胜文, 李华远场地震动频谱特性与超高层结构响应相关性研究[J]. 地震工程与工程振动, 2017, 27 (1): 135- 140 GAO Jianping, GAO Shengwen, LI Hua Correlation between spectral characteristic of far-field ground motion and seismic response of super high-rise building[J]. Journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration, 2017, 27 (1): 135- 140
10	李雪红, 周鹤鸣, 李晔暄, 等远场长周期地震动作用下减隔震连续梁桥的动力响应特性研究[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2016, 25 (3): 137- 142 LI Xuehong, ZHOU Heming, LI Yexuan, et al Study on the dynamic response characteristics of isolated continuous girder-bridge under far-field long-period ground motions[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2016, 25 (3): 137- 142
11	日本国土交通省气象厅. 長周期地震動階級および長周期地震動階級関連解説表について [EB/OL]. [2024-06-18]. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/eew/data/ltpgm_explain/about_level.html.
12	United States Geological Survey. M 7.4 - 15 km S of Hualien City, Taiwan [EB/OL]. [2024-06-18]. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000m9g4/finite-fault.
13	浙江发布. 台湾花莲县海域发生7.3级地震! 浙江多地有震感, 部分高铁晚点 [EB/OL]. [2024-06-18]. https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26910627.
14	NAGAO T, YAMADA M, NOZU A A study on the empirical evaluation method of site amplification effects by use of microtremor H/V spectrum[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering A, JSCE, 2010, 56A: 324- 333
15	徐龙军, 于海英, 曹文海, 等汶川地震远场地震动场地相关性与分析方法评价[J]. 地震学, 2010, 32 (2): 175- 183 XU Longjun, YU Haiying, CAO Wenhai, et al Evaluation of site dependence and methods for site analysis based on far field ground motions from the Wenchuan earthquake[J]. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 2010, 32 (2): 175- 183
16	BOORE D M Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motions based on seismological models of the radiated[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1983, 73 (6): 1865- 1894
17	BERESNEV I A, ATKINSON G M. FINSIM: a FORTRAN program for simulating stochastic acceleration time histories from finite faults [J]. Seismological Research Letters, 1998, 69(1): 27‒32.
18	MOTAZEDIAN D Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency[J]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2005, 95 (3): 995- 1010 doi: 10.1785/0120030207
19	KAMAE K, IRIKURA K, FUKUCHI Y Prediction of strong ground motion based on scaling law of earthquake by stochastic synthesis method[J]. Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering, 1991, 430: 1- 9
20	NOZU A Necessity for a generalized expression of slip velocity correction function for use in empirical Green's function method[J]. Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan, 2002, 55: 233- 238
21	SATOH T Study on envelope model of ground motion based on inversion of group delay time and scattering theory[J]. Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering, 2004, 69 (586): 71- 78 doi: 10.3130/aijs.69.71_5
22	刘建华, 刘福田, 阎晓蔚, 等. 华北地区Lg尾波衰减研究--Lg尾波Q0地震成像 [J]. 地球物理学报, 2004, 47(6): 1044-1052. LIU Jianhua, LIU Futian, YAN Xiaowei, et al. A study of LG code attenuation beneath north China: seismic imaging of LG code Q0 [J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2004, 47(6): 1044-1052.
23	胡家富, 丛连理, 苏有锦, 等云南及周边地区Lg尾波Q值的分布特征[J]. 地球物理学报, 2003, 46 (6): 809- 813 HU Jiafu, CONG Lianli, SU Youjin, et al Distribution characteristics of Q value of the Lg coda in Yunnan and adjacent regions[J]. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2003, 46 (6): 809- 813 doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0001-5733.2003.06.013
24	吴微微, 苏金蓉, 魏娅玲, 等四川地区介质衰减、场地响应与震级测定的讨论[J]. 地震地质, 2016, 38 (4): 1005- 1018 WU Weiwei, SU Jinrong, WEI Yaling, et al Discussion on attenuation characteristics, site response and magnitude determination in Sichuan[J]. Seismology and Geology, 2016, 38 (4): 1005- 1018 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4967.2016.04.016

[1]	谢旭,黄文彤,冀龙飞,王天佳. 断层破裂过程对减隔震桥梁地震反应的影响[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2021, 55(12): 2225-2233.
[2]	陈国兴, 左熹, 王志华, 杜修力, 孙田. 地铁车站结构近远场地震反应特性振动台试验[J]. J4, 2010, 44(10): 1955-1961.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed