Back analysis of shear strength parameters of sliding surface by using combination method of random field and Bayes theory

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.06.012

Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)

2021, Vol. 55

Issue (6): 1118-1127 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.06.012

Back analysis of shear strength parameters of sliding surface by using combination method of random field and Bayes theory

Yang XUE(

),Yi-ping WU*(

),Fa-sheng MIAO,Lin-wei LI

Engineering Faculty, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

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Abstract

The process of back analysis was constructed based on the random field method, adaptive conditional sampling algorithm and Bayesian updating with structural reliability method by taking Baishuihe landslide as a case in order to characterize the spatial variability and uncertainty of shear strength parameters in sliding zone. A new global sensitivity analysis method named PAWN was adopted to analyze the relative influence of shear strength parameters of slices on the factor of safety. The seepage-deformation simulation with non-intrusive stochastic finite element method was conducted based on the inversion results of the random field model for sliding surface. The variation characteristic and spatial variability before and after update was explored, and its effect on the displacement was analyzed. Results show that the area of large sensitivity index is located on the front and trailing edge of landslide. The non-stationary random field is formed after the inversion. The displacement variability on the trailing edge decreases, while that on the front of landslide increases.

Key words： shear strength parameter sliding zone random field model Bayesian updating global sensitivity

Received: 22 May 2020 Published: 30 July 2021

CLC:

P 66

Fund: 国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC1501301）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（41977244，42007267）

Corresponding Authors: Yi-ping WU E-mail: EGXYang@163.com;ypwu@cug.edu.cn

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	Yang XUE
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Cite this article:

Yang XUE,Yi-ping WU,Fa-sheng MIAO,Lin-wei LI. Back analysis of shear strength parameters of sliding surface by using combination method of random field and Bayes theory. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2021, 55(6): 1118-1127.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.06.012 OR https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2021/V55/I6/1118

基于随机场-贝叶斯的滑面抗剪强度参数反演

为了合理地表征滑面的抗剪强度参数，针对参数的空间变异性与不确定性问题，以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例，基于随机场、自适应条件抽样与可靠度贝叶斯更新方法，建立滑面抗剪强度参数的反演框架. 采用新的全局敏感性方法PAWN，研究不同位置条块滑面抗剪强度参数对稳定性的贡献度. 基于滑面抗剪强度参数随机场模型的反演结果，开展库水位下降工况下非侵入式随机有限元滑坡渗流变形的模拟，分析更新前、后滑面抗剪强度参数的变化特征及空间变异性对滑坡变形的影响. 结果表明：敏感度大的区域分布在滑坡前缘和后缘道路附近；反演后平稳随机场变为非平稳状态，滑坡前、后缘的位移变异性分别增大和减小.

关键词： 抗剪强度参数, 滑带, 随机场模型, 贝叶斯反演, 全局敏感性

Fig.1 Sketch of arbitrarily two slices

$\tilde i$

and

$\tilde j$

of landsldie

Fig.2 Plane picture and deformation picture of Baishuihe landslide

Tab.1 Physical and mechanics parameters

Fig.3 Slices of Baishuihe landslide 3-3′ profile

Fig.4 Finite element model of Baishuihe landslide 3-3′ profile

Fig.5 Sensitivity index with different stat

Fig.6 Sorting sensitivity index about shear strength parameters over factor of safety

Fig.7 Prior PDF and posterior PDF curves of factor of safety

Fig.8 Prior PDF and posterior PDF curves of cohesion in different slices

Fig.9 Prior PDF and posterior PDF curves of friction angle in different slices

Fig.10 Cohesion mean of any slices before and after data inversion

Fig.11 Friction angle mean of any slices before and after data inversion

Fig.12 Cohesion standard deviation of any slices before and after data inversion

Fig.13 Friction angle standard deviation of any slices before and after data inversion

Fig.14 Displacement of A section before and after data inversion

Fig.15 Displacement of B section before and after data inversion

Fig.16 Displacement coefficient of variation of A and B section before and after data inversion


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