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Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)  2026, Vol. 60 Issue (5): 998-1005    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.009
    
Cooling load prediction model for commercial buildings based on improved LSTM
Fangnan DONG1(),Qiang WU1,Jiayao LIU1,Junqi YU2
1. College of Digital Intelligence City, Xianyang Key Laboratory of Building Health Monitoring and Green Reinforcement, Shaanxi Polytechnic University, Xianyang 712000, China
2. College of Information and Control Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710311, China
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Abstract  

Traditional cooling load prediction methods often neglect temporal factors, leading to poor prediction performance and low generalization ability. To address these issues, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model optimized by the weight decay adaptive moment estimation algorithm (WAdam-LSTM) was proposed for high-precision building cooling load prediction. The cross-correlation function was employed to identify optimal feature variables as model inputs. WAdam-LSTM was constructed by introducing a weight decay term during the update of LSTM variable parameters. Hourly cooling load data from two representative large commercial buildings were used to evaluate and compare model prediction performance. Results show that the incorporation of the decoupled weight decay term enhances the stability and convergence of the optimization algorithm, making it suitable for LSTM network parameter optimization. WAdam-LSTM demonstrates superior prediction accuracy compared to SVR, SCOA-LSTM, and Adam-LSTM, with mean square error reductions of 83%, 66%, and 30%, respectively. WAdam-LSTM exhibits stronger generalization ability than single models (LSTM, SVR, and BPNN) and hybrid prediction models (SCOA-LSTM and Adam-LSTM), enabling precise cooling load predictions for different commercial buildings across varying months.



Key wordscommercial buildings      cooling load      long short-term memory(LSTM)      Adam algorithm      predictive performance     
Received: 10 June 2025      Published: 06 May 2026
CLC:  TU 831  
Fund:  陕西工业职业技术大学科研计划项目(2024YKYB-021);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3802700).
Cite this article:

Fangnan DONG,Qiang WU,Jiayao LIU,Junqi YU. Cooling load prediction model for commercial buildings based on improved LSTM. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(5): 998-1005.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.05.009     OR     https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2026/V60/I5/998


基于改进LSTM的商业建筑冷负荷预测模型

传统冷负荷预测多未考虑时间因素,导致预测效果差和泛化能力低,为此提出基于权重衰减适应性矩估计优化算法的长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络预测模型(WAdam-LSTM),用于建筑的高精度冷负荷预测. 采用交叉相关函数得到变量最佳特征作为输入变量,更新LSTM变量参数时引入权重衰减项,构建WAdam-LSTM. 以2个典型大型商业建筑逐时冷负荷数据为样本开展模型预测性能对比实验. 结果表明:解耦权重衰减项的引入提高了优化算法的稳定性和收敛性,适用于LSTM网络的参数优化;WAdam-LSTM比SVR、SCOA-LSTM和Adam-LSTM的预测效果更准确,均方误差分别下降了83%、66%和30%;WAdam-LSTM具有比单一模型(LSTM、SVR和BPNN)和混合预测模型(SCOA-LSTM和Adam-LSTM)更强的泛化能力,能对不同商业建筑不同月份的冷负荷进行精确预测.


关键词: 商业建筑,  冷负荷,  长短期记忆(LSTM),  Adam算法,  预测性能 
Fig.1 Architecture diagram of cooling load prediction model
研究对象S/(104 m2H/mL/mTrww
建筑125.040.650.110.65(南),0.45(东),
0.44(西),0.50(北)
建筑22.116.040.130.55(南),0.49(东),
0.34(西),0.49(北)
Tab.1 Characteristic information of study objects
研究
对象
建筑营业时间时间范围NS
总数训练集测试集
建筑18:00—22:002023年6月2日—
8月12日
108097995
2023年6月43538445
2023年7月46541445
2023年8月18012945
建筑28:00—21:002023年6月1日—
8月31日
12881162135
2023年6月420
37836
2023年7月434
39236
2023年8月43439236
Tab.2 Statistics of building cooling load samples
设备名称设备品牌精度测量范围
温湿度传感器建大仁科±0.3 ℃,
±2% RH
?40 ~ 80 ℃,
0% ~ 100% RH
太阳辐射传感器普锐森社1 W·m?20 ~ 1800 W·m?2
微型风速传感器YGC-FS0.1 m·s?10 ~ 70 m·s?1
智能电表威胜-DTZ3410.2 s
Tab.3 Parameters of cooling load data acquisition equipment
Fig.2 Correlation analysis of building cooling load influencing factors ($|\tau| \leqslant 6 \;\text{h} $)
参数数值参数数值
学习率η0.001迭代次数e100
衰减率β1, β20.9, 0.999隐藏层数h1
权重衰减率ω0.99隐藏单元数u13
极小值ε1.0×10?8批次c15
Tab.4 Parameter settings for model prediction performance comparison experiments
Fig.3 Analysis of loss variation with iteration epochs for different numbers of hidden layers
Fig.4 Comparison of loss values for different hidden layers numbers across data sets
Fig.5 Absolute error of hourly air-conditioning energy consumption predictions for different models
建筑物预测模型CV-RMSEMAPEMSE
建筑1LSTM0.15313.100.272
Adam-LSTM0.1075.700.083
SVR0.16316.200.354
BPNN0.19017.030.504
SCOA-LSTM0.12111.600.173
WAdam-LSTM0.0632.700.058
建筑2LSTM0.15319.400.269
Adam-LSTM0.07910.900.146
SVR0.17315.700.312
BPNN0.15718.140.474
SCOA-LSTM0.11210.900.146
WAdam-LSTM0.0725.200.059
Tab.5 Comparison of performance metrics for different cooling load prediction models
Fig.6 Convergence curve comparison of optimization algorithms for LSTM training
建筑月份模型CV-RMSE建筑月份模型CV-RMSE
建筑16月LSTM1.387建筑26月LSTM1.197
SVR2.659SVR2.114
BPNN3.019BPNN2.546
Adam-LSTM1.113Adam-LSTM1.000
SCOA-LSTM0.641SCOA-LSTM0.641
WAdam-LSTM0.761WAdam-LSTM0.833
7月LSTM1.8127月LSTM1.806
SVR2.422SVR2.359
BPNN2.767BPNN2.871
Adam-LSTM1.066Adam-LSTM1.057
SCOA-LSTM0.867SCOA-LSTM0.812
WAdam-LSTM0.653WAdam-LSTM0.487
8月LSTM1.8038月LSTM1.707
SVR2.387SVR2.308
BPNN2.281BPNN2.436
Adam-LSTM1.141Adam-LSTM1.108
SCOA-LSTM1.478SCOA-LSTM1.337
WAdam-LSTM0.592WAdam-LSTM0.595
Tab.6 Comparison of monthly building cooling load prediction accuracy across different models
Fig.7 Computational complexity comparison of prediction models
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