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浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)
水利工程     
台湾洪水预报进展及模型实务应用
江衍铭,郝偌楠,蔡文柄
1. 浙江大学 水文与水资源工程研究所,浙江 杭州 310058；
2. 台湾大学 生物环境系统工程学系,台湾 台北 10617
Progress and practical applications of flood forecasting systems in Taiwan
CHIANG Yen ming, HAO Ruo nan, TSAI Wen ping
1. Institute of hydrology and water resources engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China;
2. Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, China
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摘要：

阐述全台10个河川局洪水预报系统DRAINS、FEWS、SINO-TOPO、HEC-RAS、REFOR中不同降雨、径流、河川等水理模式运行机理.结合实例针对业务现况分析台风强降水条件下河川局洪水预报模型的模拟效果与操作经验.模型验证成果表明：不同河川局应用洪水预报模型皆能把握洪水演进规律,尤其在洪峰段模拟较好;不同模型在洪水过程模拟下洪峰最大滞后时间为2～3 h,洪峰相对误差量小于17.7%.总体而言，各模型预测数值精度及时间误差符合预报要求.预报系统的适用条件可为其他地区台风降水条件下的洪水预报模型开展业务应用提供借鉴.
Abstract:

The flood forecasting systems operated in ten major rivers in Taiwan was discribed, including DRAINS, FEWS, SINO-TOPO, HEC-RAS and REFOR, of which each model had different rainfall-runoff and rivers hydraulic mechanisms. The practical applications of each forecasting system during typhoon periods were provided. The validation results indicate that all models are able to capture the main trend of the flood, especially in the vicinity of peak flow. The performance of all models on lag time and the relative error of all peak flow forecasting are within 3 hours and 17.7%, respectively. Overall, these models are capable of producing acceptable predictions and sufficient lead time that meet the requirement of operational hydrology, providing a reference for areas where the occurrence of typhoon is frequent and flood forecasting models are needed in practice.
出版日期: 2016-09-22
:  P 338  
基金资助:

教育部博士点新教师资助项目(J20131413)；浙江省教育厅一般资助项目(N20130036).
通讯作者: 蔡文柄,男,博士后研究员. ORCID: 0000-0002-3717-9951.     E-mail: d98622005@ntu.edu.tw
作者简介: 江衍铭(1978-),男,副教授,从事地表径流的预警报研究. ORCID: 0000-0002-6303-9303. E-mail: chiangym@zju.edu.cn
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引用本文:

江衍铭,郝偌楠,蔡文柄. 台湾洪水预报进展及模型实务应用[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.09.20.

CHIANG Yen ming, HAO Ruo nan, TSAI Wen ping. Progress and practical applications of flood forecasting systems in Taiwan. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.09.20.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.09.20    或    http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2016/V50/I9/1784

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