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浙江大学学报(工学版)
浙江大学学报(工学版)  2021, Vol. 55 Issue (5): 927-934    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.05.013
电气工程     
二元联系数-投影灰靶决策理论在电网应急能力评估中的应用
黎振宇1(),陈晓国1,宋永超2,龚建平2,余志纬2,朱永兴2,鲁周勋2
1. 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司，广东 广州 510663
2. 中国南方电网有限责任公司，广东 广州 510663
Application of binary connection number-projection grey target decision theory in power system emergency capability evaluation
Zhen-yu LI1(),Xiao-guo CHEN1,Yong-chao SONG2,Jian-ping GONG2,Zhi-wei YU2,Yong-xing ZHU2,Zhou-xun LU2
1. Electric Power Research Institute of China Southern Power Grid, Guangzhou 510663, China
2. China Southern Power Grid Co. Ltd, Guangzhou 510663, China
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摘要：

在电网应急能力评估中存在指标数据类型多样化的问题，本研究介绍基于二元联系数-投影灰靶决策理论的评价方法，并将其应用在电网应急能力评估研究中. 通过研究分析建立具有多元化数据类型的电网应急能力评估基本指标体系；采用二元联系数理论对建立的多类型指标数据体系进行处理，实现数据组成形式上的统一，以便于后续的分析和计算；考虑到指标之间存在的内在联系，采用基于网络层次分析法的权重划分模型进行指标权重的确定；通过投影灰靶决策模型确定待评价对象应急能力水平与排序. 实例分析结果表明，该方法可以实现对混合指标数据的处理，并有效完成对待评价对象应急能力的评估与排序，是具有可操作性与可行性的.
关键词： 电网应急能力评估;  二元联系数理论;  权重划分;  投影灰靶决策模型;  指标体系    
Abstract:

An evaluation method based on the binary connection number-projection gray target decision theory was introduced, and it was applied to the evaluation of power grid emergency capacity, due to the diversification of indicator data types in the evaluation of power grid emergency capacity. Firstly, a basic indicator system for power grid emergency capability evaluation with multiple data types was established through research and analysis. Secondly, the established multi-type indicator data system was processed using binary connection number theory to realize the unity of data composition form in order to facilitate subsequent analysis and calculation. Then, the weights division model of the indicators based on the network hierarchy analysis method was used to determine the weights of the power grid emergency capacity indicators, taking into account the inherent relationship between power grid emergency capacity indicators. Finally, the projected gray target decision model was used to determine the level and ranking of emergency capabilities of the object to be evaluated. Analysis results of an example show that this method can realize the processing of mixed indicator data, and effectively complete the evaluation and sequencing of the emergency capabilities of the objects to be evaluated, which is operable and feasible.
Key words: grid emergency capability assessment    binary connection number theory    weight division    projection grey target decision model    indicator system
收稿日期: 2020-03-25 出版日期: 2021-06-10
CLC:  TM 711  
基金资助: 中国南方电网有限责任公司科技资助项目（ZBKJXM20180039）
作者简介: 黎振宇（1987—），男，高级工程师，博士，从事电网防灾减灾技术及电网应急技术研究. orcid.org/0000-0001-7417-7165. E-mail： 514059292@qq.com
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黎振宇
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余志纬
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鲁周勋

引用本文:

黎振宇,陈晓国,宋永超,龚建平,余志纬,朱永兴,鲁周勋. 二元联系数-投影灰靶决策理论在电网应急能力评估中的应用[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2021, 55(5): 927-934.

Zhen-yu LI,Xiao-guo CHEN,Yong-chao SONG,Jian-ping GONG,Zhi-wei YU,Yong-xing ZHU,Zhou-xun LU. Application of binary connection number-projection grey target decision theory in power system emergency capability evaluation. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2021, 55(5): 927-934.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2021.05.013    或    http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2021/V55/I5/927

A级指标 第1层指标 第2层指标
电网应急能力
评价指标体系A 		法律基础B1 国家法律法规落实的完备度x11
地方法律法规落实完备度x12
应急组织体系B2 抢修队伍人员数量储备比率x21
应急部门联动情况x22
应急人员训练情况x23
应急体系研究开展情况x24
应急管理人员数量x25
辅助决策功能完善情况x26
政府与应急指挥中心信息
联通情况x27
物资及通讯保障B3 电力应急专用车数量x31
应急专项费用投入百分比x32
通讯系统使用情况x33
灾害预防与预警B4 应急预案演练完备度x41
重要单位应急电源落实情况x42
电网风险评估开展情况x43
灾害应急反应B5 应急救援准备时间x51
突发事件下人员集结时间x52
应急信息报送及时性x53
后期处置B6 灾后总结能力x61
灾后恢复与重建能力x62
表 1  电网应急能力评价指标体系
图 1  电网应急能力评估步骤
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 0.40 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 20 [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.5，0.6，0.7] 19
乙 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 0.53 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 21 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 36
丙 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] 0.50 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] 16 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] 17
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.28 [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [30，45] [35，45] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9]
乙 0.35 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [20，40] [30，35] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.8，0.9，1.0]
丙 0.30 [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.6，0.7，0.8] [35，45] [30，40] [0.5，0.6，0.7] [0.7，0.8，0.9] [0.7，0.8，0.9]
表 2  电网应急能力指标初始数据表
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.40+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 20+0i 0.6+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 19+0i
乙 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.53+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 21+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 36+0i
丙 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.50+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 16+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 17+0i
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.28+0i 0.7+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 37.5+7.5i 40.0+5.0i 0.6+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i
乙 0.35+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 30.0+10.0i 32.5+2.5i 0.7+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.9+0.1i
丙 0.30+0i 0.8+0.1i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.7+0.1i 40.0+5.0i 35.0+5.0i 0.6+0.1i 0.8+0.1i 0.8+0.1i
表 3  电网应急能力指标二元联系数
图 2  指标关联图
指标 权重 指标 权重
x11 0.06688 x32 0.06782
x12 0.03817 x33 0.05365
x21 0.02363 x41 0.15005
x22 0.01221 x42 0.04043
x23 0.07533 x43 0.04541
x24 0.01516 x51 0.05628
x25 0.01008 x52 0.04015
x26 0.04263 x53 0.06596
x27 0.03720 x61 0.05674
x31 0.02349 x62 0.07873
表 4  电网应急能力指标权重
指标 x11 x12 x21 x22 x23 x24 x25 x26 x27 x31
甲 0.27+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.28+0i 0.32+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0i 0.29+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.26+0i
乙 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.37+0i 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i 0.37+0i 0.38+0.33i 0.37+0.33i 0.50+0i
丙 0.36+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.35+0i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.28+0i 0.33+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.24+0i
指标 x32 x33 x41 x42 x43 x51 x52 x53 x61 x62
甲 0.30+0i 0.30+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.65+0.67i 0.63+0.6i 0.32+0.33i 0.30+0.33i 0.32+0.33i
乙 0.38+0i 0.35+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i 0.72+0.56i 0.70+0.8i 0.37+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.36+0.33i
丙 0.32+0i 0.35+0.33i 0.33+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i 0.63+0.78i 0.67+0.6i 0.32+0.33i 0.35+0.33i 0.32+0.33i
表 5  电网应急能力指标标准化数据
区域 加权靶心距
正靶心距 负靶心距 正负靶心距
甲 0.0578 0.0155 0.0707
乙 0.0080 0.0650 0.0707
丙 0.0395 0.0321 0.0707
表 6  加权靶心距
区域 投影一致性系数 排序
甲 0.0354 3
乙 0.6050 1
丙 0.1694 2
表 7  电网应急能力评估结果
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