Abstract Uncertainty analysis was necessary in virtual experiment of engineering system since uncertainty of parameters in inevitable. Complexity problem was confronting uncertainty analysis of big-scale time-consuming calculation model. Here, a simulation approach based on Bayesian predictive model was proposed to predict the distribution function of prediction uncertainty, in which the parameter uncertainties were described in terms of probability density function and the expensive numerical model was approximated by its posterior distribution. A Taylor impact test demonstrates that the proposed method is efficient.
JIANG Zhen-Yu, ZHANG Wei-Hua. Uncertainty analysis approach based on predictive model in virtual experiment. Chinese Journal of Engineering Design, 2008, 15(1): 21-24.
