Role of e-fuels in deep decarbonization strategies for international shipping

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008

Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science)

2026, Vol. 60

Issue (11): 2383-2394 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008

Role of e-fuels in deep decarbonization strategies for international shipping

Xuan ZHANG1(

),Chao JIN2,*(

),Jeffrey Dankwa AMPAH1,Jingyao LI2,Jie YANG2,Zhixiong HUANG1,Haifeng LIU1,3,Mingfa YAO1

1. State Key Laboratory of Engines, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China
3. School of Mechanical Engineering, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China

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Abstract

The role of e-fuels in achieving net-zero emissions in international shipping by 2050 and their impacts on the global energy–land–water system were evaluated. An integrated supply-chain module linking renewable electricity, green hydrogen production, carbon sources, synthesis of multiple e-fuels, and end-use sectors was developed based on the global change analysis model (GCAM). A reference scenario and a JUST-efuel scenario were constructed and compared. The results show that decarbonization in international shipping is driven by e-fuels through three pathways: altering the fuel structure, reducing fuel emissions intensity, and decreasing service demand. By 2040, e-fuels become the dominant shipping fuel, and shipping service demand in 2050 is approximately 33.3% lower than in the reference scenario. The supply of e-fuels exhibits a diversified pattern: with green hydrogen at its core, followed by e-methanol and e-dimethyl ether as key supplements, while e-ammonia and e-diesel maintain relatively minor shares. The deployment of e-fuels reshapes the hydrogen supply structure: green-electricity-based hydrogen production rapidly becomes dominant after 2035, thereby driving an increase in renewable power generation. Additionally, this pathway may reduce reliance on biomass and alleviate competition for land, water and agricultural resources. Overall, e-fuels not only provide a feasible solution for deep decarbonization in international shipping but also offer important pathways for the synergistic transformation of energy, transportation, and environmental systems. Nonetheless, this transition still relies on sufficient clean power supply and integrated cross-sectoral planning.

Key words： e-fuels international shipping green electricity deep decarbonization net-zero emissions

Received: 19 December 2025 Published: 16 October 2026

CLC:

TK 91

Fund: 国家自然科学基金国际（地区）合作与交流项目（22461142138）.

Corresponding Authors: Chao JIN E-mail: xuan_zhang@tju.edu.cn;jinchao@tju.edu.cn

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	Xuan ZHANG
	Chao JIN
	Jeffrey Dankwa AMPAH
	Jingyao LI
	Jie YANG
	Zhixiong HUANG
	Haifeng LIU
	Mingfa YAO

Cite this article:

Xuan ZHANG,Chao JIN,Jeffrey Dankwa AMPAH,Jingyao LI,Jie YANG,Zhixiong HUANG,Haifeng LIU,Mingfa YAO. Role of e-fuels in deep decarbonization strategies for international shipping. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2026, 60(11): 2383-2394.

URL:

https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2026.11.008 OR https://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2026/V60/I11/2383

e-fuels助力国际航运深度脱碳的策略

评估e-fuels在实现国际航运到2050年净零排放中的作用及其对全球能源—土地—水系统的影响. 基于全球变化评估模型（GCAM），构建“可再生电力—绿氢—碳源—多类e-fuels合成—终端消费部门”的全链条模块，设置基准情景与JUST-efuel情景进行对比分析. 结果表明，e-fuels通过优化燃料结构、降低燃料排放强度与减少服务需求这3条路径推动国际航运脱碳；e-fuels至2040年成为主导燃料，2050年航运服务需求较基准情景下降约33.3%. e-fuels供应呈现多元化特征，以绿氢为核心，e-甲醇和e-二甲醚作为主要补充，e-氨与e-柴油占比较低. e-fuels的部署将推动制氢供应结构的转变，绿电制氢自2035年后迅速占优，拉动可再生能源发电量的提升；该部署能够降低对生物质依赖，缓解对土地、水与农业资源的竞争. e-fuels不仅为国际航运深度脱碳提供了可行方案，也为能源—交通—环境系统的协同转型提供了重要路径. 实现该转型依赖于大规模清洁电力供应与跨部门系统规划.

关键词： e-fuels, 国际航运, 绿电, 深度脱碳, 净零排放

Tab.1 Emission reduction target of greenhouse gas fuel intensity

Tab.2 Decarbonization strategy design scenarios

Fig.1 model framework of e-fuels

Tab.3 Parameter assumptions for production-side non-energy costs of e-fuels

Fig.2 Comparison of international shipping greenhouse gas emissions under different scenarios

Fig.3 Comparison of carbon emission intensity per unit transportation under different scenarios

Fig.4 Comparison of greenhouse gas fuel intensity

Fig.5 Service demand of international shipping

Fig.6 Total cost of international shipping services under different scenarios

Fig.7 Fuel consumption of international shipping under different scenarios

Fig.8 Fuel consumption structure of international shipping in 2050

Fig.9 Production of different types of e-fuels

Fig.10 Application trends of green hydrogen and e-methanol under different scenarios

Fig.11 Comparison of various hydrogen production technologies

Fig.12 Hydrogen production by different technologies in 2050

Fig.13 Electricity generation structure by energy source under different scenarios

Fig.14 Land, water, and fertilizer use under different scenarios


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