Risk transfer process in urban comprehensive corridor PPP project based on complex network model
Lin YANG1(),Jia-jun WANG2
1. School of Civil Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China 2. Central and Southern Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute, Wuhan 430014, China
From the perspective of complex network, the case analysis method was used to identify 38 risk elements of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects primarily; the 38 risk elements were used as network points, and the relationship between risk elements was taken as network edges to construct the complex network model. By analyzing three kinds of complex network parameters, the risk transfer process of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects was expounded. Based on the case study of urban comprehensive corridor PPP project in Shiyan city, eight core factors affecting risk transmission were found, which provided the basis for decision makers to control and prevent risks. Results show that the realization of risk prevention and control needs to control the direct risk and cut off the transmission path of indirect risk, thus to guide the risk transmission effectively by controlling the core factors of risk. The breakthrough of risk transmission of complex projects is found in theory, and the effective risk control mode of complex projects is explored in practice.
Lin YANG,Jia-jun WANG. Risk transfer process in urban comprehensive corridor PPP project based on complex network model. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2020, 54(9): 1666-1676.
Tab.1Risk summary table of urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects in three pilot cities
编号
阶段划分
风险因素
编号
阶段划分
风险因素
R1
融资阶段
融资方案可行性
R20
施工阶段
财务风险
R2
融资阶段
融资结构不合理
R21
施工阶段
公司经营管理风险
R3
融资阶段
政策性基金融资及退出风险
R22
施工阶段
政府官员腐败、干预、信誉问题
R4
融资阶段
操作风险
R23
施工阶段
政府保证风险
R5
融资阶段
信用风险
R24
运营阶段
征用/公有化风险
R6
设计阶段
设计变更风险
R25
运营阶段
利率及通胀风险
R7
设计阶段
设计协调不足
R26
运营阶段
税收调整风险
R8
设计阶段
管廊设计与专业管线技术不符风险
R27
运营阶段
项目唯一性
R9
施工阶段
材料机械质量缺陷风险
R28
运营阶段
管廊费用定价不合理风险
R10
施工阶段
材料供应时间风险
R29
运营阶段
日常维护风险
R11
施工阶段
材料设备价格的上涨风险
R30
运营阶段
运营能力不足
R12
施工阶段
工程质量风险
R31
运营阶段
事故责任分配不当风险
R13
施工阶段
施工安全风险
R32
运营阶段
项目收益稳定性风险
R14
施工阶段
工期延误风险
R33
运营阶段
管线相互干扰风险
R15
施工阶段
环境破坏风险
R34
运营阶段
管线入廊不可控风险
R16
施工阶段
建设成本超支风险
R35
运营阶段
管线支付风险
R17
施工阶段
管廊施工工艺风险
R36
移交阶段
残值风险
R18
施工阶段
管廊养护风险
R37
移交阶段
政府回购风险
R19
施工阶段
组织协调风险
R38
移交阶段
政局稳定风险
Tab.2Identification of risk factors in PPP project of urban comprehensive corridor
Fig.1Relationship among risk relevant of urban comprehensive corridor PPP project
风险因素
F1
F2
F3
···
Fn
F1
0
a12
a13
···
a1n
F2
a21
0
a23
···
a26
F3
a31
a32
0
···
a3n
$\vdots $
$\vdots $
$\vdots $
$\vdots $
0
$\vdots $
Fn
an1
an2
an3
···
0
Tab.3Risk Factor Relation Matrix
层次
指标
内容描述
整体网
网络密度
考量风险联系是否紧密
局部网
凝聚子群
考量风险是否能形成集合
个体网
度数中心度
考量风险个体自身是否处于网络中心
中间中心度
考量风险个体对其他风险的影响
Tab.4Measuring index of risk relation for PPP project of urban comprehensive corridor
Fig.2Risk visualization model for PPP project of urban comprehensive corridor
编号
成员
小团体系数
1
R21,R20,R19,R22,R23,R37,R24
2.679
2
R21,R20,R19,R22,R23,R37,R38
2.782
3
R21,R20,R19,R22,R23,R31,R34
2.411
4
R21,R20,R32,R22,R23,R24,R37
2.747
5
R21,R20,R32,R22,R23,R31,R34
2.466
6
R27,R20,R22,R23,R19,R31,R34
3.145
7
R27,R20,R22,R23,R32,R31,R34
3.239
Tab.5Small group analysis of risk factors
风险因素
出现频次
风险因素
出现频次
R20
7
R34
4
R22
7
R32
3
R23
7
R24
2
R21
5
R27
2
R19
4
R38
1
Tab.6Summary of factional index analysis of risk factors
序号
成员
凝聚子群系数
1
R19,R20,R21,R22,R23,R24,R27,R31,R32
0.917
2
R34,R19,R20,R21,R22,R23,R24,R27,R32
0.917
3
R34,R19,R20,R21,R22,R23,R27,R31,R32
0.944
Tab.7Cohesive subgroup analysis of risk factors
序号
入度
出度
节点度差
序号
入度
出度
节点度差
序号
入度
出度
节点度差
R21
16
21
5
R2
0
5
5
R32
17
3
?14
R19
4
19
15
R17
2
5
3
R36
2
3
1
R20
16
18
2
R3
1
4
3
R26
3
2
?1
R22
6
13
7
R5
2
4
2
R35
0
2
2
R23
4
12
8
R13
7
4
?3
R10
2
1
?1
R12
8
10
2
R28
5
4
?1
R11
0
1
1
R18
2
8
6
R30
16
4
?12
R14
9
1
?8
R6
3
7
4
R34
5
4
?1
R25
0
1
1
R9
1
7
6
R4
1
3
2
R31
17
1
?16
R7
2
6
4
R15
2
3
1
R33
2
1
?1
R8
2
6
4
R24
7
3
?4
R37
9
1
?8
R16
10
6
?4
R27
6
3
?3
R38
6
1
?5
R1
3
5
2
R29
7
3
?4
?
?
?
?
Tab.8Degree difference-value ranking of risk factors in PPP project of urban comprehensive corridor
序号
中间中心度
序号
中间中心度
序号
中间中心度
R21
0.167 840
R9
0.009 831
R25
0.001 640
R20
0.127 151
R37
0.009 760
R28
0.001 633
R30
0.044 286
R13
0.009 082
R29
0.001 265
R16
0.040 896
R31
0.007 652
R27
0.001 194
R32
0.035 516
R6
0.007 166
R34
0.000 669
R12
0.033 203
R5
0.003 754
R7
0.000 557
R2
0.022 777
R18
0.003 664
R36
0.000 494
R14
0.022 777
R1
0.003 253
R26
0.000 381
R19
0.019 384
R4
0.002 252
R33
0.000 282
R22
0.012 762
R15
0.001 883
R35
0.000 019
R17
0.012 158
R23
0.001 876
R38
0.000 017
R8
0.011 674
R3
0.001 752
R11
0.000 004
R24
0.010 191
R10
0.001 653
?
?
Tab.9Intermediate centrality ranking of risk actors
编码
因素
阶段
风险相关方
分析结果
R19
项目公司的组织协调风险
实施阶段
项目公司
根本因素
R22
政府官员腐败、干预、信誉问题
实施阶段
政府
根本因素
R21
公司经营管理风险
实施阶段
项目公司
中间传导因素
R20
财务风险
实施阶段
项目公司
中间传导因素
R30
运营能力不足
运营移交阶段
项目公司
中间传导因素
R16
建设成本超支风险
实施阶段
项目公司
中间传导因素
R32
项目收益稳定性风险
运营移交阶段
项目公司
中间传导因素
R12
工程质量风险
实施阶段
施工单位
核心因素
Tab.10Risk transmission path of Shiyan urban comprehensive corridor PPP project
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