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浙江大学学报(工学版)
JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE)
Civil and Traffic Engineering     
Estimation method of natural demand of urban public bicycle system
DONG Hong zhao1, WU Man jin1, LIU Dong xu1, CHEN Ning1,2
1. ITS Joint Research Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310014, China; 2. School of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China
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Abstract  

An estimation method of natural demand was proposed in order to reflect the real demand of the self service station of urban public bicycle system (PBS). The method can describe not only constrained demand shown directly by the PBS’s historical data but also potential demand covered by the facility limitations. An improved discrete choice Multi logit model was conducted according to PBS’s own characteristics. A utility function of each travel mode for public transportation was established. The PBS’s contribution rate in the total public transportation system was estimated. The natural demand of a self service station was evaluated based on the PBS’s historical data after calculating the correlation coefficient between the calculation value and the survey value of PBS’s contribution rate. Experiments were conducted in Hangzhou PBS. Results show that the value of the natural demand calculated by the estimation method is identical with the constrained demand for the self service station in flat period, but is obviously larger than the constrained demand in peak period. The natural demand is nearly equal to the unconstrained demand in the case of the service station by human duty, which means the PBS’s real demand.

Published: 01 February 2016
CLC:  TP 206  
  U 121  
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DONG Hong zhao, WU Man jin, LIU Dong xu, CHEN Ning. Estimation method of natural demand of urban public bicycle system. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2016, 50(2): 265-270.

URL:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.02.010     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/Y2016/V50/I2/265


城市公共自行车系统自然租赁需求估算方法

为了获取城市公共自行车系统（PBS）自助服务点的真实租赁需求,提出既包含受限租赁需求又考虑到潜在租赁需求的自然租赁需求估算方法.通过分析公共自行车在城市公共交通体系中的角色与特点,改进了离散选择Multi logit模型；根据建立的公共交通方式出行特性效用函数,利用Multi logit改进模型估算公共自行车在客运总量中的分担率.计算调查统计与模型估算所得到的2种分担率的相关系数,结合服务点历史租赁数据,最终实现PBS自助服务点自然租赁需求的估算.以杭州市PBS为实验对象,对所研究的方法进行实践验证.结果表明,在平峰时段,模型估算得到的自助服务点自然租赁需求量与当前受限条件下的租赁量基本保持一致；在高峰时段,模型估算得到的自然租赁需求量明显超过受限租赁量,基本与人工值守理想租赁条件下的非受限租赁量相同,有效地反映了城市PBS的真实租赁需求.

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