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浙江大学学报(工学版)  2018, Vol. 52 Issue (10): 1998-2006    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2018.10.020
地球科学     
基于灰狼支持向量机的非等时距滑坡位移预测
李麟玮, 吴益平, 苗发盛
中国地质大学 工程学院, 湖北 武汉 430074
Prediction of non-equidistant landslide displacement time series based on grey wolf support vector machine
LI Lin-wei, WU Yi-ping, MIAO Fa-sheng
Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan 430074, China
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摘要:

以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,针对滑坡位移监测数据的非等距性和复杂性,结合非等距时间序列分析法、灰狼优化算法(GWO)和支持向量回归机(SVR)模型,提出新型非等距位移时序预测模型.利用自然三次样条插值法对滑坡位移数据进行等时距处理,基于时间序列分析理论将位移数据中的趋势成分和周期成分剥离,采用基于稳健最小二乘法的三次多项式拟合和GWO-SVR耦合模型分别对这两者进行预测,利用时间序列加法模型得到滑坡累计位移的预测值.研究表明,基于灰狼支持向量机的非等时距滑坡位移预测模型不仅预测精度高,预测误差较小,且寻优参数设置简单,计算收敛迅速.

Abstract:

The Baishuihe Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was taken as an example, and the non-equidistance and the complexity of the landslide displacement monitoring data were considered. A new non-equidistant displacement prediction model was proposed by combining the non-equidistant time series analysis, the grey wolf optimization (GWO) and the support vector regression (SVR). The natural cubic-spline interpolation method was employed to process the landslide displacement data. Then the trend component and the periodic component in landslide displacement were separated based on the time series approach. The cubic polynomial fitting based on robust least squares and the GWO-SVR coupling model were used to predict the trend displacement and the periodic displacement displacements respectively. The predicted value of landslide cumulative displacement was obtained through the time series model. Results show that the non-equidistant landslide displacement prediction model based on the grey wolf algorithm optimized support vector machine not only has high prediction accuracy and small prediction error, but also has simple calculation parameter settings and fast convergence.

收稿日期: 2017-07-02 出版日期: 2018-10-11
CLC:  P642  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金资助项目(41572278,41272307)

通讯作者: 吴益平,女,教授,博导.orcid.org/0000-0001-7862-0283.     E-mail: ypwu@cug.edu.cn
作者简介: 李麟玮(1993-),男,博士生,从事地质灾害预测预报研究.orcid.org/0000-0001-9942-0571.E-mail:linweili93@126.com
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引用本文:

李麟玮, 吴益平, 苗发盛. 基于灰狼支持向量机的非等时距滑坡位移预测[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2018, 52(10): 1998-2006.

LI Lin-wei, WU Yi-ping, MIAO Fa-sheng. Prediction of non-equidistant landslide displacement time series based on grey wolf support vector machine. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY (ENGINEERING SCIENCE), 2018, 52(10): 1998-2006.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2018.10.020        http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2018/V52/I10/1998

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