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J4  2012, Vol. 46 Issue (12): 2231-2236    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2012.12.014
张庆庆, 许月萍, 张徐杰, 徐晓
浙江大学 建筑工程学院 水文与水资源工程研究所, 浙江 杭州 310058
Uncertainty analysis of water quality modeling and
risk-based decision-making based on DRAM
ZHANG Qing-qing, XU Yue-ping, ZHANG Xu-jie, XU Xiao
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,
Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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 By regarding point sources as unknown parameters, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm—delayed rejection and adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) was used in Bayesian estimation of the chemical oxygen demand、ammonia nitrogen and dissolved oxygen coupled model in the reach from Xucun to Yidong Bridge, Dongyang River, one tributary of Qiantang River. DRAM has the advantages of both delayed rejection and adaptive Metropolis, and shows more efficiency while guaranteeing stable convergence. Based on the sampled Markov chains, the uncertainties of parameters and model errors were quantified by posterior distributions, and the point sources were successfully inversed. The coupled stochastic model shows a good fit when used in modeling the posterior distributions of pollutant concentration. With some controllable and hydrodynamic variables such as pollution discharge, flow, or water temperature varying within certain ranges, the risk of pollutant concentration exceeding national water quality standards under a variety of scenarios could be calculated, which made the sensitivity analysis easily implementable. The final results can provide multiple reduction or water diversion plans in different seasons to reduce water pollution risk, and promote the risk-based management of water pollution in Qiantang River Basin.

出版日期: 2012-12-01
:  X 322  

浙江省自然科学基金重点资助项目(Z5080048); 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50809058).

通讯作者: 许月萍, 女, 副教授.     E-mail:
作者简介: 张庆庆(1984—), 女, 博士生, 主要从事水资源与水环境研究. E-mail:
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张庆庆, 许月萍, 张徐杰, 徐晓. 基于DRAM的水质模拟不确定性分析和风险决策[J]. J4, 2012, 46(12): 2231-2236.

ZHANG Qing-qing, XU Yue-ping, ZHANG Xu-jie, XU Xiao. Uncertainty analysis of water quality modeling and
risk-based decision-making based on DRAM. J4, 2012, 46(12): 2231-2236.


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