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浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版)  2018, Vol. 44 Issue (1): 107-115    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9209.2017.09.061
农业工程     
作物生长模拟模型的参数敏感性分析
张宁1,张庆国2*,于海敬1,程梦笛1,董世杰1
1.安徽农业大学资源与环境学院,合肥 230036;2. 安徽农业大学理学院,合肥 230036
Sensitivity analysis for parameters of crop growth simulation model
ZHANG Ning1, ZHANG Qingguo2*, YU Haijing1, CHENG Mengdi1, DONG Shijie1
1. School of Resources and Environment, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China; 2. School of Science, Anhui Agricultural University, Hefei 230036, China
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摘要:

对小麦作物模型WOFOST(world food studies)的参数进行辨析,并利用OAT(one-at-a-time)分析方法对WOFOST模型的作物和土壤参数进行敏感性分析,同时对小麦生长模拟结果进行解析。结果表明,从出苗到开花的积温(TSUM1)、根干物质分配系数(FRTB)、储存器官的同物质转换效率(CVO)、茎的同化物转换效率(CVS)、初始发展阶段因子(DVSI)、在35 ℃时叶的生命周期(SPAN)、生育期的比叶面积(SLATB)参数的相对敏感度都大于0.5,表现为强敏感性,对模型模拟结果影响较大。基于不同产量指标和不同生产水平条件下对WOFOST模型影响较大的参数基本一致,其相对敏感度差异不大。小麦叶面积指(leaf area index, LAI)的模拟结果表明,小麦从播种到开花的时间为137 d,而从开花到成熟的时间为66 d,与实际情况基本吻合。本研究结果可为WOFOST模型的应用和模型调参提供依据。

关键词: 叶面积指数作物模型参数敏感性分析计算机模拟    
Abstract:

Parameters of wheat crop growth model WOFOST (world food studies) were discriminated, and the sensitivity of crop and soil parameters in WOFOST model was analyzed using OAT (one-at-a-time) analysis method. Meanwhile, the simulation results of wheat growth were explained. Results showed that the relative sensitivities of seven parameters of WOFOST model, including TSUM1, FRTB, CVO, CVS, DVSI, SPAN, SLATB, were all greater than 0.5, which presented strong sensitivity and had greater influence on the model simulation results. The parameters which had greater influence on the WOFOST model based on different levels of yield and production were almost the same, and the relative sensitivity had no significant difference. Simulation results of leaf area index (LAI) showed that the days of wheat from sowing to flowering were 137, and the days of wheat from flowering to maturity were 66, which was in accordance with the actual days. This study provides a basis for the application and parameter adjustment of WOFOST model.

Key words: crop model    leaf area index    parameter sensitivity analysis    computer simulation
收稿日期: 2017-09-06 出版日期: 2017-11-29
CLC:  S-03  
基金资助: 安徽省学术和技术带头人及后备人选学术科研课题(2016H072)
通讯作者: 张庆国(http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3948-2089),     E-mail: qgzhang@ahau.edu.cn
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引用本文:

张宁,张庆国,于海敬,程梦笛,董世杰. 作物生长模拟模型的参数敏感性分析[J]. 浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版), 2018, 44(1): 107-115.

ZHANG Ning, ZHANG Qingguo, YU Haijing, CHENG Mengdi, DONG Shijie. Sensitivity analysis for parameters of crop growth simulation model. Journal of Zhejiang University (Agriculture and Life Sciences), 2018, 44(1): 107-115.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/agr/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9209.2017.09.061        http://www.zjujournals.com/agr/CN/Y2018/V44/I1/107

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