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浙江大学学报(工学版)
J4  2009, Vol. 43 Issue (6): 1107-1111    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2009.06.024
土木工程、水利工程     
几种Copulas模拟不同历时降雨量的影响分析
许月萍,童杨斌,富强,朱蓉
(浙江大学 建筑工程学院, 浙江 杭州 310027)
Impact analysis for rainfall depthsimulation of different durations through several Copulas
XU Yue-ping, TONG Yang-bin, FU Qiang, ZHU Rong
(School of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China)
 全文: PDF(584 KB)  
摘要：

为减小水文频率分析中的不确定性,采用４种不同的Copulas联结函数来模拟不同历时降雨量的相关关系,并得出边际分布分别为广义极限和广义逻辑斯特的两元联合分布.模拟结果表明,Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern和Gaussian Copulas能较好地模拟变量之间的相关关系,而Gumbel和Clayton Copulas则相对较差.通过计算Copula的条件分布可以得到不同历时降雨量组合的概率.根据Copula联结函数来推求不同重现期的设计暴雨,可以同时考虑不同历时降雨量的相关性,该方法科学合理,为水文频率分析方法提供了新的思路.
关键词： Copula;  设计暴雨;  广义极限分布;  广义逻辑斯特分布;  降雨量;  不同历时降雨    
Abstract:

To reduce uncertainty in hydrological frequency analysis, four different Copulas were used to model the bivariate distribution functions for rainfall depths of various durations with generalized extreme-value distribution and generalized logistic distribution as marginals. The simulation  showed that the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern and Gaussian Copulas can model the dependence between variables reasonably, while Gumbel and Clayton Copulas did less well. The conditional probabilities of rainfall depth combinations for different durations can be obtained. The  Copula method to calculate design rainstorm for different return periods is  reasonable and provides a new alternative to traditional frequency analysis．
Key words: Copula    design rainstorm    generalized extreme-value distribution    generalized logistic distribution    rainfall data of different     duration
出版日期: 2009-07-01
:  TV122.5  
基金资助:

武汉大学水资源与水电工科学国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2007B032); 浙江省自然科学基金资助项目（Y507071）；教育部博士点新教师基金资助项目（200803351029）.
通讯作者: 朱蓉，女，讲师.     E-mail: zhurong@zju.edu.cn
作者简介: 许月萍（1975－），女，浙江诸暨人，副教授，主要从事水文水资源系统不确定和风险分析.
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引用本文:

许月萍, 童杨斌, 富强, 等. 几种Copulas模拟不同历时降雨量的影响分析[J]. J4, 2009, 43(6): 1107-1111.

HU Ru-Ping, TONG Yang-Bin, FU Jiang, et al. Impact analysis for rainfall depthsimulation of different durations through several Copulas. J4, 2009, 43(6): 1107-1111.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2009.06.024    或    http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/eng/CN/Y2009/V43/I6/1107

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