| Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering |
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| Highway traffic efficiency evaluation based on unascertained measure model |
| WANG Wei dong, LI Jun jie, WANG Jing,FU Qing xiang, KANG Wen hong |
| School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China |
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Abstract 13 evaluation indices were abstracted from four aspects of economy, traffic structure and transportation, the reasonable degree of highway network and traffic management and policy focusing on the highway traffic efficiency of three urban agglomerations called Chang Zhu Tan, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. The grade evaluation and ordering model was established for highway traffic efficiency of urban agglomerations based on information entropy and unascertained measures theory. The unascertained measure function of every assessment index was obtained according to the existing data, and the index weight was determined using information entropy theory. Grade judgment on highway traffic efficiency of the three urban agglomerations was conducted according to confidence recognition criteria, and highway traffic efficiency was sorted according to the quantitative score calculation. The regional distribution maps of highway traffic efficiency of the three urban agglomerations were produced using GIS technology to display and analyze the distribution map intuitively in order to provide reference for clarifying the main improving area of highway traffic efficient of each urban agglomeration. Results show that the order of highway traffic efficiency of the three urban agglomerations is from Pearl River Delta (higher), Yangtze River Delta (higher) to Chang Zhu Tan (medium) based on unascertained measure model. Regional distribution maps of highway traffic efficiency based on GIS show that the efficiency districts of the cities in Chang Zhu Tan are level III and level IV, which has an apparent gap between the developed cities in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta．
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Published: 31 March 2016
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基于未确知测度的公路交通效率评价
针对长株潭、长三角及珠三角城市群的公路交通效率,从经济、交通结构与运输、公路路网合理度和交通管理与政策4个层面确定13项评价指标,运用信息熵和未确知测度理论方法,建立城市群公路交通效率等级评价和排序模型.该模型根据已有数据建立各评价指标的未确知测度函数,利用信息熵理论确定各指标权重,依照置信度识别准则对三大城市群公路交通效率进行等级判定,通过量化得分对公路交通效率等级进行排序.应用GIS技术制作三大城市群公路交通效率区域分布图,对各城市群的公路交通效率分布进行直观展示与分析,为明确城市群公路交通效率的重点提高区域提供参考.研究结果表明：未确知测度模型评价得到三大城市群公路交通效率等级排序为珠三角（较高）、长三角（较高）、长株潭（中等）；基于GIS的公路交通效率区域分布图显示,长株潭各市均处于III级和IV级效率区域,与长三角和珠三角的发达城市差距明显.
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