基于复杂网络模型的城市综合管廊PPP项目风险传递过程研究

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.09.002

浙江大学学报(工学版)

2020, Vol. 54

Issue (9): 1666-1676 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.09.002

土木与交通工程

基于复杂网络模型的城市综合管廊PPP项目风险传递过程研究

杨琳1(

),王嘉君2

1. 武汉大学土木建筑工程学院，湖北武汉 430072
2. 中国市政工程中南设计研究总院，湖北武汉 430014

Risk transfer process in urban comprehensive corridor PPP project based on complex network model

Lin YANG1(

),Jia-jun WANG2

1. School of Civil Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2. Central and Southern Municipal Engineering Design and Research Institute, Wuhan 430014, China

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摘要：

从复杂网络视角出发，利用案例分析法识别出城市综合管廊PPP项目的38个风险要素，将风险要素作为网络点，并将风险要素之间的关系作为网络边，构建复杂网络模型；通过分析3类复杂网络参数，阐明城市综合管廊PPP项目的风险传递过程；基于十堰市城市综合管廊PPP项目的实例，找到8个影响风险传递的核心因素，为决策者提供风险控制和防范的依据. 研究表明：实现风险防控需要控制直接风险并切断间接引发风险的传递路径，通过控制风险核心因素的方式有效引导风险传递. 以上研究从理论上发现了复杂项目风险传递的突破口，在实践上探索了行之有效的复杂项目风险控制模式.

关键词： 城市综合管廊; 公私合作（PPP）项目; 复杂网络; 风险识别; 风险传递; 案例分析法

Abstract:

From the perspective of complex network, the case analysis method was used to identify 38 risk elements of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects primarily; the 38 risk elements were used as network points, and the relationship between risk elements was taken as network edges to construct the complex network model. By analyzing three kinds of complex network parameters, the risk transfer process of the urban comprehensive corridor PPP projects was expounded. Based on the case study of urban comprehensive corridor PPP project in Shiyan city, eight core factors affecting risk transmission were found, which provided the basis for decision makers to control and prevent risks. Results show that the realization of risk prevention and control needs to control the direct risk and cut off the transmission path of indirect risk, thus to guide the risk transmission effectively by controlling the core factors of risk. The breakthrough of risk transmission of complex projects is found in theory, and the effective risk control mode of complex projects is explored in practice.

Key words: urban comprehensive pipeline corridor public-private partnership (PPP) project complex network risk identification risk transfer case analysis method

收稿日期: 2019-09-19 出版日期: 2020-09-22

CLC:

TU 990.3

基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（71702136）

作者简介: 杨琳（1981—），女，副教授，从事复杂项目风险与集成管理研究. orcid.org/0000-0002-5744-5815. E-mail： yang.lin@whu.edu.cn

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引用本文:

杨琳,王嘉君. 基于复杂网络模型的城市综合管廊PPP项目风险传递过程研究[J]. 浙江大学学报(工学版), 2020, 54(9): 1666-1676.

Lin YANG,Jia-jun WANG. Risk transfer process in urban comprehensive corridor PPP project based on complex network model. Journal of ZheJiang University (Engineering Science), 2020, 54(9): 1666-1676.

链接本文:

http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2020.09.002 或 http://www.zjujournals.com/eng/CN/Y2020/V54/I9/1666

序号	包头¹⁾	序号	苏州²⁾	序号	海口³⁾
注：¹⁾包头住房和城乡建设局, http://zfhcxjsj.baotou.gov.cn/；²⁾包头住房和城乡建设局, http://zfhcxjsj.baotou.gov.cn/；³⁾海口市住房和城乡建设局, http://hkjsj.haikou.gov.cn/
1	宏观政策风险	1	建设风险	1	政策法律合同风险
1.1	政府干预	1.1	完工延误风险	1.1	法律变更
1.2	法律变更	1.2	设计变更	1.2	合同文件风险
1.3	政府信用风险	1.3	建设成本超支风险	2	金融风险
1.4	公众反对	1.4	建设质量风险	2.1	利率风险
1.5	税收政策变更	2	项目运营维护成本超支风险	3	政策风险
1.6	决策审批延误	2.1	实际运营维护成本高	3.1	政府决策审批延误风险
2	金融风险	2.2	项目管理不利	3.2	土地获取风险
2.1	利率风险	2.3	物价变化	3.3	工程变更
2.2	通货膨胀	3	投融资及财务风险	3.4	融资财务风险
2.3	融资财务风险	3.1	融资失败	3.5	工期延误
3	财务风险	3.2	融资成本过高	3.6	工程质量风险
4	运营风险	3.3	财务管理不善	4	合作风险
4.1	入廊管线数量的预测	3.4	基准利率变化	4.1	合作风险
4.2	运营成本超支	4	收益风险	4.2	治理结构风险
4.3	监管不利	4.1	入廊费收费不足	5	市场运营风险
4.4	社会资本股权变动	4.2	超额收益	5.1	市场风险
4.5	经营者能力不足	4.3	项目唯一性	5.2	费用支付风险
5	项目本身风险	4.4	收费价格调整或受限	5.3	资产安全风险
5.1	土地获取风险	4.5	财政可行性缺口补助支付不到位、不及时	5.4	服务质量风险
5.2	完工风险	5	政策法规变更	6	不可抗力风险
5.3	承包商违约	5.1	规划变更导致改造	?	?
5.4	工程质量不达标	5.2	相关规定、规范变更	?	?
5.5	工程建设意外事故	6	政府征收、征用	?	?
5.6	建设成本超支	6.1	政府提前征收	?	?
5.7	供应风险	6.2	政府征用	?	?
5.8	技术风险	7	不可抗力风险	?	?
5.9	工程变更	?	?	?	?
5.10	项目测算不当	?	?	?	?
5.11	合同文本不够完善	?	?	?	?
5.12	项目移交	?	?	?	?
6	不可抗力风险	?	?	?	?

表 1 3个试点城市综合管廊PPP项目的风险汇总表

表 2 城市综合管廊PPP项目风险因素识别及归类结果

图 1 城市综合管廊PPP项目风险要素间的关系

表 3 风险因素关系矩阵

表 4 城市综合管廊PPP项目风险间的关系测度指标

图 2 城市综合管廊PPP项目风险可视化模型

表 5 风险因素的小团体分析表

表 6 风险因素的派系指标分析汇总表

表 7 风险因素的凝聚子群分析表

表 8 城市综合管廊PPP项目风险因素的节点度差排序

表 9 风险因素的中间中心度排序

表 10 十堰市城市综合管廊PPP项目风险传递路径分析表

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