Abstract：It is of great significance to research on the return of capital of prefectures and higher level cities in China, which helps clarify such phenomena as “north-south differentiation” and “one city dominants”. Based on the data of 321 prefectures and higher level cities in China during 2000-2018, three findings are obtained through empirical researches.Firstly, the return of capital of most prefectures and higher level cities in China has declined and their features are divergent from each other. From the perspective of city level, the municipalities directly under the Central Government have the highest overall return of capital. And the return of capital have declined with the decrease of city level in recent years, which means that the prefecture level cities have the lowest overall return of capital. From the perspective of city clusters, the return of capital of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Beibu Gulf and Harbin-Changchun have declined significantly in recent years, while the return of capital of the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Central Plains, the Guanzhong Plains, Hu-Bao-E-Yu and other clusters have gradually stabilized. At the same time, the return of capital of the Yangtze River Delta cluster has already bottomed out and rebounded.Secondly, the δ convergence of return of capital does not occur in prefectures and higher level cities in China. However, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs among the prefectures and higher level cities in China. From the perspective of city level, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs respectively in municipalities directly under the Central Government, provincial cities, sub-provincial cities, and prefecture level cities. From the perspective of city clusters, the club convergence of the return of capital occurs respectively in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, the Central Plains, Hu-Bao-E-Yu and Lan-Xi, while it does not occur in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, the Guanzhong Plains, Harbin-Changchun, the Beibu Gulf and other national city clusters.Thirdly, the convergence of organic composition of capital is an important reason for the convergence of the return of capital, which occurs in prefectures and higher level cities in China. The return of capital of cities can be decomposed into three factors, which are organic composition of capital, growth rate of labor force and real interest rate. Evidences of this can be found in many urban groups, such us municipalities directly under the Central Government, sub-provincial cities, provincial cities, prefecture level cities and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, the Central Plains, Hu-Bao-E-Yu and Lan-Xi, in which the club convergence of return of capital occurs.These findings suggest that such phenomena as “north-south differentiation” and “one city dominants” are not short-term. After all, market-oriented capital flow into the central cities and key city clusters with higher return of capital, such as municipalities directly under the Central Government, sub-provincial cities, provincial cities and the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, and Chengdu-Chongqing. Therefore, the former regional development strategies, which aim at narrowing the gaps of regional economic development, have been replaced by the new regional development strategies, which aim at narrowing the gaps in basic public services and infrastructure among regions.These findings also indicate that cities and city clusters should be guided to develop in different ways. Therefore, it is essential to explore the fiscal and tax sharing systems and GDP accounting approaches, which are beneficial to the cross-city and cross-provincial layout of leading technology companies and major technology projects so as to balance the interests of regions, whereby it may encourage R&D centers to gather in the central cities and industrialization projects to move to neighboring cities, promoting the realization of convergence of organic composition of capital and technological progress speed hidden therein.
李猛, 黄振宇. 中国城市资本回报率的“俱乐部收敛”现象及其原因[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2022, 52(1): 136-151.
Li Meng, Huang Zhenyu. The Phenomenon of “Club Convergence” of the Return of Capital in Chinese Cities and Its Causes. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2022, 52(1): 136-151.
2022, Vol. 52 
