Please wait a minute...
浙江大学学报（理学版）
浙江大学学报（理学版）  2017, Vol. 44 Issue (2): 243-252    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.02.020
旅游与环境学     
中国古文献记载中“死者万计”事件的时空特征与原因分析
刘静1,2, 殷淑燕1
1. 陕西师范大学 旅游与环境学院, 陕西 西安 710062;
2. 宝鸡文理学院 地理与环境学院, 陕西 宝鸡 721013
The temporal-spatial distribution and cause analysis of the “number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people” events in Chinese ancient documents
LIU Jing1,2, YIN Shuyan1
1. College of Tourism and Environmental, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062, China;
2. College of Geography and Environment, Baoji University of Arts and Sciences, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi Province, China
 全文: PDF(2662 KB)   HTML  
摘要： 自然灾害是人地关系最为显性的自然事件.通过检索《中国基本古籍库》及《爱如生数据库·中国方志库》，整理了中国古文献记载中自然灾害导致的“死者万计”事件的发生频次，利用最小二乘法、小波分析和M-K检验等方法，分析其时空特征及发生原因.结果表明：历史时期“死者万计”事件频发，共有217 a，主要类型为疫灾、饥灾、飓风、水灾.魏晋南北朝为第1个小活跃期，明清集中了总年数的60.8%，为第2个活跃期，并且秋季和夏季出现次数最多.10 a频次呈极显著的波动上升趋势，最大值在1580~1589年，分为频次最少-缓慢上升-频次平缓-快速上升4个阶段，1820年发生增多突变.灾害演化过程中存在26，7和4 a共3个周期.空间分布差异明显，以江苏、浙江为主的长江中下游和以河南为主的黄河中下游是2个高频中心，且各省灾害结构不同.气候的寒冷与异常、季节变化、灾害结构、人口规模、社会动荡、朝代更替等是灾害发生的主要原因.
关键词： “  死者万计”  事件;  自然灾害;  时空分布;  中国古文献;  历史时期    
Abstract: Natural disaster is the dominant nature event on man-land relationship. Based on "Database of Chinese Classic Ancient Book" and "Chinese Local Gazetteers Database by Erudition", the occurring frequency of the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events that were caused by natural disasters in Chinese ancient documents is reorganized. The temporal-spatial distribution and cause analysis are analyzed by methods of least squares, wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation testing. The results showed that historical China has high frequency of "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events which occurred in 217 a, and the main natural disasters were epidemic disaster, hunger disaster, hurricane and flood disaster. The Wei, Jin, Northern and Southern dynasties were the first low activities period, and the Ming and Qing dynasties formed the second activities period which had concentrated 60.8% of disaster years. Summer and spring were disaster-prone seasons. Change in occurring frequency on the decade intervals showed the very significant volatility rising trend and the maximum appeared in the years from 1580 to 1589, and the frequency experienced four stages i.e. less, slowly increased, frequency gently, rapid increase, and increased remarkably after 1820. Wavelet analysis showed that the disaster evolution cycle were 26 a, 7 a and 4 a. The spatial distribution of the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" events varied distinctly. The middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang Provinces and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River especially Henan Province were the two high-frequency centers. Different provinces had respective structure of disasters. It is showed that there is a closely relationship between the "number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people" event frequency and the climate, the season changes,structure of disasters, population scale, social turbulence, and alternation of dynasties.
Key words: the “number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people&rdquo    events    natural disasters    temporal-spatial distribution    Chinese ancient documents    historical period
收稿日期: 2016-03-25 出版日期: 2017-07-08
CLC:  P954  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41371029，41601020）；中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目（2012T50795）.
通讯作者: 殷淑燕     E-mail: yinshy@snnu.edu.cn
作者简介: 刘静(1979-),ORCID:http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0522-1078,女,博士,讲师,主要从事环境变化与自然灾害研究,E-mail:307651595@qq.com.
服务　　
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章　　
刘静
殷淑燕

引用本文:

刘静, 殷淑燕. 中国古文献记载中“死者万计”事件的时空特征与原因分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(2): 243-252.

LIU Jing, YIN Shuyan. The temporal-spatial distribution and cause analysis of the “number of deaths amounted to more than ten thousand people” events in Chinese ancient documents. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2017, 44(2): 243-252.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2017.02.020    或    https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2017/V44/I2/243

[1] 熊平生,谢世友.中国全球变化研究优势领域及进展[J].地理与地理信息科学,2008,24(3):86-89. XIONG P S, XIE S Y. Superiority regions and progress of global change research in China[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science,2008,24(3):86-89.
[2] 仇立慧,黄春长.古代黄河中游饥荒与环境变化关系及其影响[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(1):145-150. QIU L H, HUANG C C. Study on the relationship between environmental change and famine occurrence in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in ancient times[J]. Arid Zone Research,2008,25(1):145-150.
[3] 楚纯洁,赵景波.开封地区宋元时期洪涝灾害与气候变化[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1150-1156. CHU C J, ZHAO J B. Flood disasters and climate changes during Song and Yuan dynasties in Kaifeng area[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(9):1150-1156.
[4] 殷淑燕,王海燕,王德丽,等.陕南汉江上游历史洪水灾害与气候变化[J].干旱区研究,2010,27(4):522-528. YIN S Y, WANG H Y, WANG D L, et al. Study on historical flood disasters and climate change in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River[J]. Arid Zone Research,2010,27(4):522-528.
[5] 卜风贤.两汉时期关中地区的灾害变化与灾荒关系[J].中国农史,2014(6):37-49. BU F X. The change of natural disasters and the relationship of famine and hazard in Guanzhong area from West Han to East Han dynasty[J].Agricultural History of China,2014(6):37-49.
[6] 邓辉,王洪波.1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征[J].地理研究,2015,34(12):2343-2354. DENG H, WANG H B. Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces from 1368 to 1911[J]. Geographical Research,2015,34(12):2343-2354.
[7] 曹罗丹,李加林,叶持跃,等.明清时期浙江沿海自然灾害的时空分异特征[J].地理研究,2014,33(9):1778-1790. CAO L D, LI J L, YE C Y, et al. Spatial-temporal variations in natural disasters of the coastal regions in Zhejiang province during Ming and Qing dynasties[J]. Geographical Research,2014,33(9):1778-1790.
[8] 张琨佳,刘璐,苏筠.中国清代历史水灾时空特征研究[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(4):104-110. ZHANG K J, LIU L, SU Y. Study on spatiotemporal characteristics of historical flood in Qing dynasty[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2015,24(4):104-110.
[9] 谭徐明.近500 a我国特大旱灾的研究[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2003,23(2):77-83. TAN X M. Study of major drought catastrophes in China in recent 500 years[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,2003,23(2):77-83.
[10] 龚胜生.中国疫灾的时空分布变迁规律[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):870-878. GONG S S. Changes of the temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic disasters in 770BC-AD1911 China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(6):870-878.
[11] 陈玉琼,高建国.中国历史上死亡一万人以上的重大气候灾害的时间特征[J].大自然探索,1984(4):157-166. CHEN Y Q, GAO J G. Time characteristics of great climatic disasters of died people over ten thousand in Chinese history[J]. Discovery of Nature,1984(4):157-166.
[12] 龚鸿庆,龚燕.中国历史上七种自然灾害的时间特征及意义[J].灾害学,1988(3):1-9. GONG H Q, GONG Y. Time behavior of seven kinds of natural calamities in Chinese history and its implication[J]. Journal of Catastrophology,1988(3):1-9.
[13] 刘毅,杨宇.历史时期中国重大自然灾害时空分异特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):291-300. LIU Y, YANG Y. Spatial distribution of major natural disasters of china in historical period[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):291-300.
[14] 宋正海.中国古代重大自然灾害和异常年表总集[M].广州:广东教育出版社,1992. SONG Z H. Chronicle of Great Natural Disasters and Abnormal Phenomena in Ancient China[M]. Guangzhou:Guangdong Education Press,1992.
[15] 宋正海,高建国,孙关龙,等.中国古代自然灾异动态分析[M].合肥:安徽教育出版社,2002. SONG Z H, GAO J G, SUN G L, et al. Dynamic Analysis of Natural Catastrophist in Ancient China[M]. Hefei:Anhui Education Press,2002.
[16] 中国社会科学院历史研究所.中国历代自然灾害及历代盛世农业政策资料[M].北京:农业出版社,1988. Institute of history, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Chronicle of the Natural Disasters and Agricultural Policies in Historical China[M].Beijing:Agriculture Press,1988.
[17] 袁祖亮.中国灾害通史[M].郑州:郑州大学出版社,2009. YUAN Z L. History of China Disaster[M]. Zhengzhou:Zhengzhou University Press,2009.
[18] 唐宝琪,延军平,刘永林,等.全球气候变暖下华东4省1市风速变化特征[J].浙江大学学报:理学版,2015,42(5):575-583. TANG B Q, YAN J P, LIU Y L, et al. The various characteristics about wind speed of Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Zhejiang Provinces and Shanghai in the east China under the global warming[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University:Sc
[1] 胡东滨,冯婧瑜,杨艺,易国栋. 考虑处置效果的苯系物泄露应急方案生成方法[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(4): 457-466.
[2] 朱强,王超毅,张吉庆,尹宝才,魏小鹏,杨鑫. 基于事件相机的无人机目标跟踪算法[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(1): 10-18.
[3] 毋子玉,殷淑燕,刘静,赵宇莲. 明代长江流域人口大量死亡事件时空特征及原因分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(1): 85-95.
[4] 王佳宁, 宋永永, 薛东前. 中国自然灾害时空变化及其社会经济效应[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(6): 750-759.
[5] 卢璐, 孙根年. 2008年—2018年我国大陆地区入境旅游的危机周期及市场归因[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2021, 48(3): 377-390.
[6] 张凌, 杨霖尊. 基于CEEMD的重大事件对香港住宅价格影响的实证分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2020, 47(3): 380-390.
[7] 黄哲, 查贲, 沈杭锋, 翟国庆, 张霏燕. 浙江西北部山地暴雨特征[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2019, 46(2): 227-235.
[8] 邓立, 沈继忠, 高鹏辉. 结合光流法与信息熵的人群突发事件检测与判断[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2019, 46(1): 39-47.
[9] 林依硕, 李钢, 梁燕均, 谭然, 邵琰, 陈露露. 基于基金项目的“一带一路”研究格局与态势分析[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2018, 45(4): 509-520.
[10] 王光朋, 查小春, 黄春长, 庞奖励, 张国芳. 汉江上游沉积记录的北宋时期古洪水事件文献考证[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2018, 45(4): 488-496.
[11] 李罕梁, 周玲强, 郑一波. “洋家乐”游客的动机、感知价值对其满意度和行为意愿的影响[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2018, 45(1): 92-102.
[12] 郭庆龄, 赵丽芹, 甘树, 徐百龙, 王鑫阳, 杨岳平. 突发自然灾害应急饮用水反渗透处理工艺研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(6): 666-674.
[13] 张恺, 王应明. 考虑多角度效用的应急案例调整方法[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(3): 314-321.
[14] 张凌, 常欣, 温海珍. 重大事件与政策调整对杭州市住房市场价量波动的影响[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2017, 44(3): 363-368,378.
[15] 方涯盼, 张丰, 杜震洪, 刘仁义. 基于拓扑和空间相似性的地理事件检测——以土地利用数据更新为例[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2016, 43(6): 701-708.