Hazard level assessment method and system for bridge crane based on FFT-BN model

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1006-754X.2026.05.188

Chinese Journal of Engineering Design

2026, Vol. 33

Issue (1): 17-32 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1006-754X.2026.05.188

Theory and Method of Mechanical Design

Hazard level assessment method and system for bridge crane based on FFT-BN model

Qing DONG¹(

),Junqi LI¹,Gening XU¹,Shuguang NIU²,Keyuan ZHAO¹

^1.School of Mechanical Engineering, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
^2.Taiyuan Heavy Machinery Group Co. , Ltd. , Taiyuan 030024, China

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Abstract

To implement effective prevention and control of hazards faced by cranes at the source of design, it is necessary to address core issues existing in active bridge cranes, such as incomplete hazard source identification, lack of quantitative assessment systems, and limitations of risk assessment models. Therefore, a hazard level assessment method for bridge cranes based on FFT-BN (fuzzy fault tree-Bayesian network) model is proposed, and a dedicated system platform is developed. Focusing on the structure and components of bridge cranes, a refined hazard source identification process was established through systematic failure analysis to achieve comprehensive coverage of potential risks. An expert evaluation quantitative system was constructed, standard quantitative indicators were designed, and hazard sources were quantitatively characterized. A hazard level assessment model based on FFT-BN was proposed, which combined the failure logic analysis capability of FFT with the uncertainty reasoning advantage of BN, to achieve dynamic quantitative assessment and level classification of complex risks while improving the model accuracy and efficiency. A dedicated hazard level assessment system platform for bridge cranes was developed, realizing the intelligent innovation of the assessment process and significantly improving the application efficiency in engineering practice. Taking the in-service QD40 t-22.5 m-9 m general bridge crane as an example, the engineering feasibility and scenario applicability of the proposed method were verified, providing effective solutions and tool support for the improvement of equipment intrinsic safety and active prevention of accidents.

Key words： hazard source identification hazard source quantification fuzzy fault tree-Bayesian network (FFT-BN) bridge crane hazard level

Received: 15 August 2025 Published: 01 March 2026

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	Qing DONG
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Cite this article:

Qing DONG,Junqi LI,Gening XU,Shuguang NIU,Keyuan ZHAO. Hazard level assessment method and system for bridge crane based on FFT-BN model. Chinese Journal of Engineering Design, 2026, 33(1): 17-32.

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https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/10.3785/j.issn.1006-754X.2026.05.188 OR https://www.zjujournals.com/gcsjxb/Y2026/V33/I1/17

基于FFT-BN模型的桥式起重机危险等级评估方法及系统

为了在设计源头对起重机所面临的危险实施有效防控，需着力解决现役桥式起重机存在的危险源辨识不全面、量化评估体系缺失及风险评估模型局限性等核心问题。为此，提出了基于FFT-BN（fuzzy fault tree-Bayesian network，模糊故障树-贝叶斯网络）模型的桥式起重机危险等级评估方法，并开发了专用型系统平台。聚焦桥式起重机的结构与零部件，通过系统性失效分析建立精细化的危险源辨识流程，以实现潜在风险的全覆盖；构建专家评价量化体系，设计标准的定量指标，并对危险源进行量化表征；提出基于FFT-BN的危险等级评估模型，结合FFT的失效逻辑分析能力与BN的不确定性推理优势，在提升模型精度与效率的同时实现复杂风险的动态量化评估与等级划分；开发专用型桥式起重机危险等级评估系统平台，实现了评估流程的智能化革新，大幅提升工程实际的应用效率。以在役QD40 t-22.5 m-9 m通用桥式起重机为例，验证了所提出方法的工程可行性与场景适用性，为设备本质安全提升与事故主动预防提供了有效的解决方案和工具支持。

关键词： 危险源辨识, 危险源量化, 模糊故障树-贝叶斯网络, 桥式起重机, 危险等级

Fig.1 Statistics of lifting machinery accidents

Fig.2 Hazard source identification method

Table 1 Comparison of crane hazard assessment strategies

Fig.3 Structure composition of bridge crane

Table 2 Various hazards of bridge crane

资质等级	基础资质	经验维度	评估能力	权重分配
资深专家	起重机安全/检验领域工作年限 $≥$ 10年；起重机检验师/注册安全工程师；机械/安全工程博士	桥式起重机设计/制造/检验/事故调查项目数量 $≥$ 3个；以往风险评估结论与实际事故的差异度 $≤$ 15%	每年参与行业技术研讨会 $≥$ 3次；与结构力学、电气自动化等专业协作经历 $≥$ 2次	1.2
合格专家	起重机安全/检验领域工作年限5~10年；起重机检验员证书；机械/安全工程硕士	桥式起重机设计/制造/检验/事故调查项目数量 $≥$ 2个；以往风险评估结论与实际事故的差异度 $≤$ 30%	每年参加专业技术培训 $≥$ 2次；与结构力学、电气自动化等专业协作经历 $≥$ 1次	1.0
实习专家	起重机安全/检验领域工作年限<5年；起重机操作/维修资格证书；相关专业本科及以上	协助桥式起重机设计/制造/检验/事故调查项目数量 $≥$ 1个；在导师指导下完成模拟评估	完成岗前培训课程	0.8

Table 3 Expert grading admission criteria and weight distribution

维度	依据	评分准则（1~5分）					权重
维度	依据	1分	2分	3分	4分	5分	权重
历史发生频率	年事故/故障次数	$≤$ 2次	3~4次	4~5次	6~8次	$≥$ 9次	30%↑↓
设备老化与缺陷	年检验不合格项	0项	1~2项	3~4项	5~6项	$≥$ 7项	20%↑↓
人为操作风险	工作人员年违章次数	$≤$ 1次	2~3次	4~5次	6~8次	$≥$ 9次	20%↑↓
控制措施可靠性	安全装置年失效次数	$≤$ 1次	2~3次	4~5次	6~8次	$≥$ 9次	20%↑↓
环境诱发因素	高温/腐蚀/大风年暴露天数	$≤$ 30天	30~90天	90~150天	150~200天	$≥$ 200天	10%↑↓

Table 4 Multi-dimensional weighted scoring criteria for hazard sources

专家术语评级	三角模糊数/10^-3
低（S<1）	(0, 1, 2)
较低（1 $≤$ S<2）	(2, 3, 4)
中等（2 $≤$ S<3）	(4, 5, 6)
较高（3 $≤$ S<4）	(6, 7, 8)
高（S $≥$ 4）	(8, 9, 10)

Table 5 Expert terminology rating rules

Fig.4 Trapezoidal membership function

Fig.5 T-S fuzzy fault tree model of bridge crane

Fig.6 Process of T-S fuzzy fault tree conversion to BN model

Fig.7 FFT-BN model

Table 6 Level classification of posterior probability and key importance

Table 7 Hazard level classification

Fig.8 Development process of hazard level assessment system platform for bridge crane

Table 8 Related application software programs and versions

Fig.9 Main interface of hazard level assessment system platform for bridge crane

Fig.10 Hazard identification and quantification results

Table 9 Fuzzy failure probability of root node

Table 10 T-S fuzzy gate 9

Table 11 Failure probability of intermediate nodes

Fig.11 Hazard level assessment results of bridge crane

Table 12 Hazard level classification of bridge crane

Fig.12 Information data management interface

Table 13 Performance comparison of hazard level assessment methods for bridge crane


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