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Waste Disposal & Sustainable Energy
Waste Disposal & Sustainable Energy
    
城市固体废物大规模综合模型的经济可行性分析：以巴西最重要经济区为例
Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto1
1 Mechanical Engineering Faculty at State University of Campinas (PDSE/FEM/UNICAMP), Av. Mofarrej, 275-Apto 212 B1, S?o Paulo, SP CEP 05311-000, Brazil
Analyzing the economic viability of a large-scale integrated model of municipal solid waste: a study case for the most important Brazilian economic region
Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto1
1 Mechanical Engineering Faculty at State University of Campinas (PDSE/FEM/UNICAMP), Av. Mofarrej, 275-Apto 212 B1, S?o Paulo, SP CEP 05311-000, Brazil
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摘要： 尽管2010年出台了国家固体废物政策（PNRS），但巴西的废物处理并未发生任何变化。原本计划在2014年8月2日之前达到所有城市生活垃圾（MSW）的100%的填埋场收集和处理，到到目前为止，其中42%总量的生活垃圾仍在垃圾堆中。即使是最重要的国民经济区，其城市垃圾填埋处理率也不超过4%，垃圾填埋场已达到枯竭状态。由于该地区周围的水库、高昂的运费、废物处理以及与物流相关的排放严格控制，建造其他的垃圾填埋场正变得越来越困难。本文旨在打破投资和盈利的模式，提出土地利用的替代方案，实现更高的回收率。通过著名的金融变量和蒙特卡罗分析进行的经济可行性考虑了已证实的当地废物特性以及可再生能源和无补贴市场价格。即使考虑到资金和人员高度密集的提案，销售收入也足以保证100%股权的可行性，内部收益率为33.7%，年投资回报率为24.5%，每年的置信度为99%。
关键词： Solid waste;  Sorting;  Recycling;  Waste-to-energy;  Metropolitan Region of S?o Paulo;  Energy recovering    
Abstract: Despite the National Policy for Solid Waste (PNRS) in 2010, nothing has changed to waste disposal in Brazil. Planned to reach 100% of all Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) collected and treated in landfills by Aug. 2nd, 2014, until nowadays, 42% of this total remains in dumps. Even the most important national economic region treating its urban waste in landfills, what it has is no more than 4% of recycling and its landfills reaching the exhaustion. Building other ones is getting harder year by year, due to water reservoirs around the region, high freight costs, waste disposal and the severe control of emissions associated with its logistics. This article comes to break the paradigm of investment and profitability proposing an alternative to the land-use, achieving higher rates of recovering. The economic viability, carried out through well-known financial variables and Monte Carlo analysis, has taken into account proven local waste characteristics and market prices for recyclables and energy without subsidies. Even considered a proposal highly intensive in capital and people, the revenues from the sales would be enough to guarantee the viability of 100% equity with IRR of 33.7% and ROI of 24.5% per year within the confidence of 99%.
Key words: Solid waste    Sorting    Recycling    Waste-to-energy    Metropolitan Region of S?o Paulo    Energy recovering
收稿日期: 2020-03-28
通讯作者: Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto     E-mail: octaviopneto@gmail.com
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Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto

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Octavio Pimenta Reis Neto. Analyzing the economic viability of a large-scale integrated model of municipal solid waste: a study case for the most important Brazilian economic region. Waste Disposal & Sustainable Energy, .

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http://www.zjujournals.com/wdse/CN/    或    http://www.zjujournals.com/wdse/CN/Y2020/V2/I3/231

[1] Nametso D. Phonchi-Tshekiso, Patricia K. Mogomotsi, Goemeone E. J. Mogomotsi, Reniko Gondo. 基于空间因素的博茨瓦纳洛巴茨佩伦镇固体废物管理的定性评估[J]. Waste Disposal & Sustainable Energy, 2020, 2(3): 219-.