|
|
|
| Can Digital Finance Enhance the Resilience of Rural Households? |
| Fang Shile1,2, Han Shihui3, Xu Xinnan4,5, Shi Xinjie4,5 |
1.School of Management, Wenzhou Business College, Wenzhou 325035, China
2.Institute for Common Prosperity and Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
3.School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou 310018, China
4.China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
5.School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out: “We should improve the normalized mechanism for preventing rural populations from returning to or falling into poverty.” The key challenge lies in enhancing the endogenous development momentum of rural households, especially their ability to withstand multiple shocks and resist risks. Digital financial instruments, with their unique advantages, are emerging as a critical tool for stimulating the intrinsic development potential of rural households by effectively addressing the bottleneck caused by the lack of standardized collateral and the obstacles created by information asymmetry in traditional financial services.We approach the issue from the perspective of household development resilience and discuss how digital finance affects rural households’ ability to cope with multiple shocks. Empirical analysis and mechanism verification of the above issues are conducted based on data from four waves of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) covering the years 2013 to 2019. The innovative contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following dimensions: First, considering the historical transition stage of poverty governance strategy from vulnerability governance to resilience governance, we explore the role of digital finance in improving rural household welfare through the development resilience index. This offers a new perspective for investigating the role and impact of finance in the context of common prosperity. Second, according to the theory of right poverty, we construct an analysis framework including three dimensions: risk identification, risk resistance, and risk mitigation capabilities, to clarify the logical chain of digital finance affecting households’ development resilience, providing theoretical support and empirical evidence for preventing the return of poverty and creating a sustainable income mechanism. Third, we not only demonstrate the positive impact of digital finance but also conduct an in-depth analysis of the potential imbalances in the distribution of digital dividends, discussing how to maximize the inclusive growth effect of digital finance. Fourth, based on existing literature and practical poverty alleviation experience, we attempt to define the concept and boundaries of the risk of large-scale poverty return, revealing the limitations of digital finance in addressing such risks through empirical analysis. This provides valuable supplementary evidence for both theoretical advancements and practical insights into the risk of large-scale poverty return.The main research findings are as follows:Digital finance can significantly improve the development resilience of rural households, and this conclusion has passed a series of robustness tests. Mechanistic analysis reveals that digital finance primarily enhances households’ development resilience by improving their risk identification capabilities, risk resistance and risk mitigation capabilities. In terms of regional differences, digital finance has a more pronounced effect in areas with high levels of traditional financial development and well-developed traditional infrastructure. Regarding household differences, digital finance has a greater impact on high-income households and those with high social capital compared to low-income households and those with low social capital, indicating a phenomenon of “elite capture”. This may be due to the existence of access and application gaps for vulnerable rural households, which gives them have unequal opportunities to benefit from the development of digital finance. Further discussion shows that digital finance can help reduce the risk of rural households returning to poverty, but it has no significant effect on the prevention of deep poverty and large-scale poverty return, which may be related to the imbalance in the distribution of digital dividends.Based on the above findings, we propose that the supportive role of digital finance, particularly third-party fintech platforms such as Alipay, should be fully leveraged. Furthermore, it is essential to continue fostering the development capacity of rural households and enhance their resilience to risks. Key strategies include addressing the “access gap” and bridging the “application gap” while establishing a governance mechanism to counter “elite capture” in order to achieve inclusive growth of digital finance. Overall, this paper provides empirical evidence and decision-making references for deepening the understanding of how digital economy enhances the development resilience of rural households, reduces the risk of returning to poverty, and effectively links the consolidation and expansion of poverty eradication achievements with rural revitalization.
|
|
Received: 09 July 2024
|
|
|
|
1 黄益平、黄卓：《中国的数字金融发展：现在与未来》，《经济学（季刊）》2018年第4期，第1489-1502页。
2 方师乐、黄祖辉、徐欣南：《数字金融发展的包容性增长效应》，《农业技术经济》2025年第2期，第43-62页。
3 张勋、万广华、张佳佳等：《数字经济、普惠金融与包容性增长》，《经济研究》2019年第8期，第71-86页。
4 方师乐、韩诗卉、徐欣南：《电商发展与农村共同富裕》，《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第2期，第89-108页。
5 Phadera L.， Michelson H. & Winter-Nelson A. et al.， “Do asset transfers build household resilience，” Journal of Development Economics， Vol. 138 （2019）， pp. 205-227.
6 贾男、王赫：《脱贫农户返贫风险防范政策研究》，《经济研究》2022年第10期，第121-137页。
7 Holling C. S.， “Resilience and stability of ecological systems，” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics， Vol. 4， No. 1 （1973）， pp. 1-23.
8 Upton J.， Constenla-Villoslada S. & Barrett C. B.， “Caveat utilitor： a comparative assessment of resilience measurement approaches，” Journal of Development Economics， Vol. 157 （2022）， https：//doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102873.
9 Smith L. C. & Frankenberger T. R.， “Does resilience capacity reduce the negative impact of shocks on household food security？ evidence from the 2014 floods in Northern Bangladesh，” World Development， Vol. 102 （2018）， pp. 358-376.
10 Barrett C. B. & Constas M. A.， “Toward a theory of resilience for international development applications，” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences， Vol. 111， No. 40 （2014）， pp. 14625-14630.
11 Cissé J. D. & Barrett C. B.， “Estimating development resilience： a conditional moments-based approach，” Journal of Development Economics， Vol. 135 （2018）， pp. 272-284.
12 李晗、陆迁：《精准扶贫与贫困家庭复原力——基于CHFS微观数据的分析》，《中国农村观察》2021年第2期，第28-41页。
13 高梦滔、姚洋：《健康风险冲击对农户收入的影响》，《经济研究》2005年第12期，第15-25页。
14 Wu K. & Wan S.， “Job stability and household financial vulnerability： evidence from field surveys in China，” Finance Research Letters， Vol. 58 （2023）， https：//doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104554.
15 斯丽娟：《家庭教育支出降低了农户的贫困脆弱性吗？——基于CFPS微观数据的实证分析》，《财经研究》2019年第11期，第32-44页。
16 方师乐、叶俊焘、黄祖辉等：《城乡融合发展与县域经济转型——来自城乡融合发展试验区的经验证据》，《管理世界》2025年第12期，第123-143页。
17 周广肃、丁相元：《数字金融、流动性约束与共同富裕》，《数量经济技术经济研究》2023年第4期，第160-179页。
18 尹志超、张栋浩：《金融普惠、家庭贫困及脆弱性》，《经济学（季刊）》2020年第5期，第153-172页。
19 温涛、朱炯、王小华：《中国农贷的“精英俘获”机制：贫困县与非贫困县的分层比较》，《经济研究》2016年第2期，第111-125页。
20 王小华、韩林松、温涛：《惠农贷的精英俘获及其包容性增长效应研究》，《中国农村经济》2021年第3期，第106-127页。
21 王修华、赵亚雄：《数字金融发展是否存在马太效应？——贫困户与非贫困户的经验比较》，《金融研究》2020年第7期，第114-133页。
22 Sen A.， Resources， Values and Development， Cambridge： Harvard University Press， 1984.
23 Deaton A.， “Saving and liquidity constraints，” Econometrica， Vol. 59， No. 5 （1991）， pp. 1221-1248.
24 Slovic P.， “Perception of risk，” Science， Vol. 236 （1987）， pp. 280-285.
25 李涛：《社会互动、信任与股市参与》，《经济研究》2006年第1期，第34-45页。
26 Mckenzie D. & Rapoport H.， “Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality： theory and evidence from Mexico，” Journal of Development Economics， Vol. 84， No. 1 （2007）， pp. 1-24.
27 周立：《中国农村金融体系的政治经济逻辑（1949—2019年）》，《中国农村经济》2020年第4期，第78-100页。
28 史新杰、卫龙宝、方师乐等：《中国收入分配中的机会不平等》，《管理世界》2018年第3期，第27-37页。
29 史新杰、李实、陈天之等：《机会公平视角的共同富裕——来自低收入群体的实证研究》，《经济研究》2022年第9期，第99-115页。
30 Günther I. & Harttgen K.， “Estimating households vulnerability to idiosyncratic and covariate shocks： a novel method applied in Madagascar，” World Development， Vol. 37， No. 7 （2009）， pp. 1222-1234. |
|
|
|
2026, Vol. 56 
