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浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)  2024, Vol. 54 Issue (4): 37-54    DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2023.08.104
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地方政府债务、土地利用效率与房价
王维安1, 谢朱斌1, 陈梦涛2
1.浙江大学 经济学院,浙江 杭州 310058
2.浙江财经大学 金融学院,浙江 杭州 310018
Local Government Debt, Land Use Efficiency and Housing Prices: Empirical Evidences Based on Panel Data from 255 Cities
Wang Weian1, Xie Zhubin1, Chen Mengtao2
1.School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
2.School of Finance, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China

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摘要 在我国土地财政的制度环境下,地方政府债务一方面促进了基础设施建设,推动了城镇化进程;另一方面也会影响土地市场供给,进而对房地产价格产生影响。理论模型发现,地方政府债务对房价的正向效应可以解构为直接效应和间接效应。实证研究验证:(1)地方政府债务扩张会导致房地产价格上涨;(2)土地利用效率能够通过调节效应削弱地方政府债务对房价的正向刺激;(3)在低数字经济水平、高土地财政依赖度的城市,地方政府债务对房价的正向刺激更显著,且土地利用效率对该刺激的负向调节效应更强。上述结论为加速我国地方政府债务置换、因地制宜提升土地利用效率,以及防范化解房地产风险提供了理论与经验支撑。
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王维安
谢朱斌
陈梦涛
关键词 地方政府债务土地利用效率房价数字经济水平土地财政依赖度    
Abstract:Over the past 20 years, the trend of real estate prices has shown complex and variable characteristics. Until before the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s real estate market had been in a state of “easy heat and difficult cooling”. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that by the end of 2020, the average selling price of commercial housing nationwide had reached 10,030 yuan per square meter, an increase of 323% compared with the price of 2,359 yuan per square meter at the end of 2003. The price increase in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has exceeded tenfold. Against this background, it is necessary for us to trace the changes in real estate prices and explore the specific mechanisms behind their formation.After the global financial crisis in 2008, many studies have proposed factors influencing the high real estate prices in China, such as speculative demand, social interaction, and financial liberalization. The mainstream literature focusing on the supply side mainly revolves around the relationship between local government debt and housing prices. However, most existing studies primarily investigate the impact of real estate prices on the scale of local government debt rather than the causal relationship between them. Even the studies that do examine this relationship only focus on the overall effect of local government debt on housing prices. Local government debt is the primary source of the fiscal revenue for local governments under the fiscal decentralization system. Studying only its overall effect on real estate prices without exploring the influence of urban characteristics on this mechanism makes it difficult to provide more practical policy recommendations. Moreover, real estate risk and local government debt risk are two sides of the same coin in China’s systemic risks, representing the central axis of financial and fiscal linkage risks. Therefore, further tracing the correlation between the two and clarifying their mechanisms is essential to meet the requirements of the “guarding against systemic risks” in the 20th National Congress report.This article takes the land channel as a framework to delve into the mechanism by which local government debt affects housing prices and the moderating effect of land use efficiency on this mechanism. We construct a three-sector equilibrium model involving households, real estate developers, and governments. We decompose the positive effect of local government debt on housing prices into direct and indirect effects and infer that land use efficiency can weaken the positive stimulation of local government debt on housing prices through indirect effects. Additionally, we test these two inferences using panel data from 255 cities from 2011 to 2019, where land use efficiency is calculated using the Super-SBM DEA model with unexpected output. To mitigate endogeneity and reverse causality problems, we employ 2SLS and SYS-GMM models for testing. Furthermore, we find that in cities with low levels of digital economy and high dependence on land finance, the positive stimulation of local government debt on housing prices is more significant, and the negative moderating effect of land use efficiency on this stimulation is stronger. These conclusions provide theoretical and empirical support for accelerating the replacement of local government debt, improving land use efficiency according to local conditions, and preventing and resolving real estate risks in China.
Key wordslocal government debt    land use efficiency    housing prices    level of digital economy    dependence on land finance   
收稿日期: 2023-08-10     
作者简介: 王维安(https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8490-6341),男,浙江大学经济学院教授,金融研究所所长,博士生导师,经济学博士,主要从事宏观经济、金融理论与政策研究;谢朱斌(https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3102-246X),男,浙江大学经济学院博士研究生,主要从事宏观金融、金融风险防控、宏观审慎政策研究;陈梦涛(https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3911-1520)(通信作者),男,浙江财经大学金融学院讲师,主要从事宏观金融、货币政策、金融稳定等方面的研究;
引用本文:   
王维安, 谢朱斌, 陈梦涛. 地方政府债务、土地利用效率与房价[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 2024, 54(4): 37-54. Wang Weian, Xie Zhubin, Chen Mengtao. Local Government Debt, Land Use Efficiency and Housing Prices: Empirical Evidences Based on Panel Data from 255 Cities. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 2024, 54(4): 37-54.
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https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.CN33-6000/C.2023.08.104     或     https://www.zjujournals.com/soc/CN/Y2024/V54/I4/37
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