Abstract：Population ageing is a global trend. As the country with the largest population and the largest elderly population in the world, China’s ageing population problem cannot be ignored. In recent years, the degree of population ageing in China has further gone up, and there has even been a rural-urban inversion in which the ageing of the rural population is higher than that of the urban area, faster than that of the urban area, regional differences are greater than that of the urban area, and the elderly population is larger than that of the urban area. Compared with urban areas, the problem of population ageing in rural areas is more serious, and its negative impact on agricultural production has become increasingly prominent. However, while the use of farmland is a fundamental and directional issue, most of the current literature focuses primarily on the impact of population ageing on agricultural production efficiency. Studies on the relationship between population ageing and farmland use are still relatively lacking. Based on a systematic review of relevant literature, this study takes the sample of farmers as the research object, adopts the latest published data of the China Rural Household Panel Survey in 2017 and 2019, and comprehensively employs the panel-ordered Logit model, panel multi-dimensional fixed effect model, moderation effect model and sub-sample regression method. Starting from the household level, it focuses on the overall effect and specific impact of rural population ageing on farmland use, and conducts an in-depth analysis of the underlying mediation mechanism and moderation mechanism, with a view to providing a reference for strengthening farmland use in the context of rural population ageing.
Empirical studies have found that population ageing has a significant negative impact on farmland utilization as a whole, shifting farmland use from full cultivation to partial or even all uncultivated use. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests such as transformation estimation methods and replacement of core explanatory variables. Specifically, the ageing of the rural population reduces the probability of total farmland cultivation by 2.8%, the probability of partial farmland cultivation increases by 2.5%, the probability of farmland rent-in decreases by 1.7%, the probability of total farmland abandonment increases by 1.0%, and the probability of partial farmland abandonment increases by 2.0%. However, due to the relatively insufficient demand for farmland transfer at this stage, population ageing has an insignificant impact on farmland rent-out. The mechanism analysis found that the ageing of the population leads to the above-mentioned changes in the use of farmland, mainly because, as the ageing of the family population deepens, the elderly in rural areas gradually withdraw from agricultural production due to the decline in physical fitness and the increase in pension income, and young and middle-aged workers are also forced to work abroad due to the increase in economic burden, resulting in an insufficient supply of rural agricultural labor. Simultaneously, terrain and agricultural machinery play a moderating role in the process of population ageing affecting farmland use. The impact of population ageing on farmland use is more severe in mountainous areas than in plains, and the application of agricultural machinery can reduce this negative impact to some extent. Extended analysis shows that shifting farmland use from cultivation to abandonment not only reduces farmers’ likelihood of planting grain crops, but also significantly reduces farmers’ grain output.
Based on the above findings, this study proposes that in the future, the government should first improve the land transfer market, strictly prevent and curb farmland abandonment, thus solving the problem of having enough farmland. Secondly, it is essential to cultivate new agricultural operation entities, do a good job of intergenerational inheritance of agricultural management, thus solving the problem of no workers farming farmland. Finally, it is crucial to boost the market for agricultural mechanization services, strengthen the substitution of machinery for labor, and thus address the inefficient cultivation of farmland. Through these measures, we can effectively ensure food security in an aging population.
郑淋议 钱文荣. 人口老龄化对农地利用的影响研究——基于微观农户的考察[J]. 浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版), 0, (): 1-.
Zheng Liny Qian Wenrong. Impact of Population Ageing on Farmland Use: Analysis of Micro Farmers Based on Large Sample. JOURNAL OF ZHEJIANG UNIVERSITY, 0, (): 1-.
