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Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition)
    
Space-time symmetry and tendency judgement of Mw ≥ 6.9earthquake in Peru
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Abstract  

Based on the seismic data (Mw≥6.9) in Peru, according to the theory of commensurability, the signal intensity of the earthquakes tendency is analyzed and judged by using the methods of commensurability information. The butterfly structure diagram , commensurability structure system and epicenter migration approach are employed to prove the reliability of the forecast result and reveal how the astronomical factors effect strong earthquake activities. It shows that the seismic activities of Mw≥6.9 in Peru since 1970 exhibit obvious commensurability, the tendency of an intermediate focus earthquake occurring in 2019 is strong with the random probability of 55.56%. Besides, the great earthquakes in Peru have a significant relationship with the solar activity,earth's rotation and lunar movement: previous earthquakes mostly occurred in the solar activity peak and decline period, the double cycle of sunspot and the years with variance of the Earth's rotation rate; earthquake unlikely occurred in full moon and twilight moon days.



Key wordscommensurability      spatiotemporal symmetry      trend judgment      sunspot      earthquak     
Cite this article:

. Space-time symmetry and tendency judgement of Mw ≥ 6.9earthquake in Peru. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 0, (): 1-9.

URL:

http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/sci/     OR     http://www.zjujournals.com/xueshu/sci/Y0/V/I/1


秘鲁Mw ≥ 6.9地震趋势判断与时空对称规律

:选取秘鲁地区 1970 年以来Mw ≥6.9 地震数据 , 根据可公度性理论 , 提取秘鲁强震的可公度信息 , 采用蝴蝶结构图 、 可公度网络结构图和震中迁移方法 , 探索该地区强震活动的时空对称性 , 同时对可能触发地震的天文现象与地震灾害发生进行相关分析 , 进一 步 验 证 趋 势 判 断 结 果 , 发 现 相 关 规 律 . 结 果 表 明 : 1970 年 以 来 秘 鲁Mw ≥6.9 地震具有可公度性 , 2019 年在秘鲁北部 ( 73°W , 11°S 附近 ) 发生中深源地震的信号较强 ; 太阳活动 、 地球自转 、 月球运动与秘鲁地震的发生具有一定规律性 , 秘鲁Mw ≥6.9 地震发生在太阳活动峰值年 、 下降段占 77.78% , 太阳活动双周期占 66.67% , 在地球自转变化率较大的年份占 60% , 朔月前后是地震频发期 ( 占 44.44% ), 朔月 、 下弦月前后地震发生次数达 83.33%.

关键词: 可公度 ,  时空对称 ,  趋势判断 ,  太阳黑子 ,  地震 
[1] Yaqun WU,Junping YAN,Ping ZHANG,Jiayu LU. A study on the spatial-temporal distribution and trendency judgement for earthquakes of Mw≥5.8 in Pakistan[J]. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2019, 46(1): 119-128.
[2] WANG Hui, YAN Junping, TANG Baoqi, LI Yingjie. Space-time symmetry and tendency judgement of Mw ≥ 6.9 earthquake in Peru[J]. Journal of ZheJIang University(Science Edition), 2018, 45(1): 1-9.