TOD中“T”与“D”因素对小汽车出行距离的减量影响

doi:10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2022.03.015

浙江大学学报（理学版）

2022, Vol. 49

Issue (3): 376-383 DOI: 10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2022.03.015

城市科学

TOD中“T”与“D”因素对小汽车出行距离的减量影响

邓一凌(

)

浙江工业大学设计与建筑学院，浙江杭州 310023

The effects of "T" and "D" factors of TOD on reducing the car kilometers traveled

Yiling DENG(

)

School of Design and Architecture，Zhejiang University of Technology，Hangzhou 310023，China

全文: PDF(3957 KB)

HTML( 2 )

摘要：

国内以公共交通为导向的开发（transit-oriented development，TOD）研究大多集中在规划实践领域，对于TOD能在多大程度上降低城市居民小汽车出行距离依然有待明确。基于南京市城市居民出行调查数据，采用家庭所在地800 m范围内有无地铁站点定义TOD中“T”因素，以综合密度、混合度、步行评分作为“D”因素。在控制个人社会经济属性和家庭所在地位置因素的基础上，建立Tobit模型，研究TOD对居民小汽车出行距离的减量影响。通过划分TOD、only-T、only-D、non-TOD等4类家庭居住地，分析边际效应发现，当“T”因素从无地铁站点变为有地铁站点时，小汽车出行距离降低19.6%；“D”因素每增加0.01，小汽车出行距离平均下降0.7%；当“T”与“D”因素综合作用时，小汽车出行距离下降43.4%。依据上述研究结论，提出从only-T向TOD、从non-TOD向only-D转变的规划建议。

关键词： 以公共交通为导向的开发; 小汽车出行距离; 步行评分; Tobit模型; 边际效应

Abstract:

Most of the studies on transit-oriented development TOD in China were focused on planning practice, and to what extent TOD can reduce the urban residents' car kilometers traveled was unclear. Based on the Nanjing household travel survey data, the "T" factor of TOD was defined by whether there was a subway station within the distance of 800 m from the household residence; the "D" factor of TOD was defined by residence density, mix, and walk score. After controlling for socioeconomic and home location factors, a Tobit model was proposed to study the effect of TOD on reducing the urban residents' car kilometers traveled. By classifying four residence types (i.e., TOD, only-T, only-D, and non-TOD) and analyzing the marginal effects, we found that the car kilometers traveled decreases by 19.6% when the "T" factor changes from no subway station to one subway station; and it decreased by 0.7% for every 0.01 increase in the "D" factor; the car kilometers traveled decreased by 43.4% if the effect of both "T" and "D" were combined. Based on the above findings, it was suggested that the planning studies should shift from only-T to TOD and from non-TOD to only-D.

Key words: TOD car kilometers traveled walk score Tobit model marginal effect

收稿日期: 2021-03-18 出版日期: 2022-05-24

CLC:

TU 984.191

基金资助: 浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(19NDQN351YB);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51978617)

作者简介: 邓一凌（1987—），ORCID：https：//orcid.org/0000-0002-6245-0352，男，博士，副教授，主要从事城市交通规划研究，E-mail：yiling@zjut.edu.cn.

	服务
	把本文推荐给朋友
	加入引用管理器
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	作者相关文章
	邓一凌

引用本文:

邓一凌. TOD中“T”与“D”因素对小汽车出行距离的减量影响[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2022, 49(3): 376-383.

Yiling DENG. The effects of "T" and "D" factors of TOD on reducing the car kilometers traveled. Journal of Zhejiang University (Science Edition), 2022, 49(3): 376-383.

链接本文:

https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/10.3785/j.issn.1008-9497.2022.03.015 或 https://www.zjujournals.com/sci/CN/Y2022/V49/I3/376

表1 模型参数估计

图1 4类家庭的空间分布底图来源于南京市地理信息公共服务平台（网址为http：//jiangsu.tianditu.gov.cn/nanjing/index/page/index.html），审图号：宁S（2020）012号，底图无修改。

图2 4类家庭的典型居住地建成环境

表2 4类家庭的小汽车平均出行距离

图3 不同情景下TOD对小汽车出行距离的影响

1	张晓春，田锋，吕国林，等. 深圳市TOD框架体系及规划策略［J］. 城市交通， 2011， 9（3）： 37-44. DOI：10. 3969/j.issn.1672-5328.2011.03.006 ZHANG X C， TIAN F， LYU G L， et.al. Transit-oriented development framework and planning strategies in Shenzhen［J］. Urban Transport of China， 2011， 9（3）： 37-44. DOI：10.3969/j.issn. 1672-5328.2011.03.006 doi: 10.3969/j.issn. 1672-5328.2011.03.006
2	邵源，田锋，吕国林，等. 深圳市TOD规划管理与实践［J］. 城市交通， 2011， 9（2）： 60-66， 21. DOI：10. 3969/j.issn.1672-5328.2011.02.010 SHAO Y， TIAN F， LYU G L， et.al. Transit-oriented development planning and management practice in Shenzhen［J］. Urban Transport of China， 2011， 9（2）： 60-66， 21. DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1672-5328. 2011.02.010 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-5328. 2011.02.010
3	CHATMAN D G. Does TOD need the T： On the importance of factors other than rail access［J］. Journal of the American Planning Association， 2013， 79（1）： 17-31. DOI：10.1080/01944363. 2013.791008 doi: 10.1080/01944363. 2013.791008
4	EWING R， CERVERO R. Travel and the built environment： A meta-analysis［J］. Journal of the American Planning Association， 2010， 76（3）： 265-294. DOI：10.1080/01944361003766766 doi: 10.1080/01944361003766766
5	王有为. 适于中国城市的TOD规划理论研究［J］. 城市交通， 2016， 14（6）： 40-48. DOI：10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2016.0607 WANG Y W. Suitability of TOD planning theory for Chinese cities［J］. Urban Transport of China， 2016， 14（6）： 40-48. DOI：10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2016. 0607 doi: 10.13813/j.cn11-5141/u.2016. 0607
6	MILLER E J， IBRAHIM A. Urban form and vehicular travel： Some empirical findings［J］. Transportation Research Record： Journal of the Transportation Research Board， 1998， 1617（1）： 18-27. DOI：10.3141/1617-03 doi: 10.3141/1617-03
7	KUMAPLEY R K， FRICKER J D. Review of methods for estimating vehicle miles traveled［J］. Transportation Research Record： Journal of the Transportation Research Board， 1996， 1551（1）： 59-66. DOI：10.1177/0361198196155100108 doi: 10.1177/0361198196155100108
8	CALTHORPE P. The Next American Metropolis： Ecology， Community， and the American Dream［M］. New York： Princeton Architectural Press， 1993.
9	CERVERO R. Transit-Oriented Development in the United States： Experiences， Challenges， and Prospects ［M］. Washington： Transportation Research Board， 2004.
10	U.S. Maryland Department of Transportation. Glendening from the Transit-oriented Development Task Force［R］.Baltimore： U. S. Maryland Transportation Authority， 2000. doi:10.3141/1731-09 doi: 10.3141/1731-09
11	CERVERO R， KOCKELMAN K. Travel demand and the 3Ds： Density， diversity， and design［J］. Transportation Research Part D （Transport and Environment）， 1997， 2（3）： 199-219. DOI：10.1016/S1361-9209（97）00009-6 doi: 10.1016/S1361-9209（97）00009-6
12	YUE Y， ZHUANG Y， YEH A G O， et al. Measurements of POI-based mixed use and their relationships with neighbourhood vibrancy［J］. International Journal of Geographical Information Science， 2016， 31（4）： 658-675. DOI：10.1080/13658816.2016.1220561 doi: 10.1080/13658816.2016.1220561
13	REUSSER D E， LOUKOPOULOS P， STAUFFACHER M， et al. Classifying railway stations for sustainable transitions-balancing node and place functions［J］. Journal of Transport Geography， 2008， 16（3）： 191-202. DOI：10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.05.004 doi: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2007.05.004
14	CARR L J， DUNSIGER S I， MARCUS B H. Walk scoreTM as a global estimate of neighborhood walkability［J］. American Journal of Preventive Medicine， 2010， 39（5）： 460-463. DOI：10.1016/j.amepre.2010.07.007 . doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2010.07.007
15	CARR L J， DUNSIGER S I， MARCUS B H. Validation of walk score for estimating access to walkable amenities ［J］. British Journal of Sports Medicine， 2011， 45（14）： 1144-1148. DOI：10.1136/bjsm.2009.069609 doi: 10.1136/bjsm.2009.069609
16	MANAUGH K， AHMED E. Validating walkability indices： How do different households respond to the walkability of their neighborhood？［J］. Transportation Research Part D （Transport and Environment）， 2011， 16（4）： 309-315. DOI：10.1016/j.trd.2011.01.009 doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2011.01.009
17	TOBIN J. The Application of Multivariate Probit Analysis to Economic Survey Data［R］. New Haven： Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics， Yale University， 1955.
18	中国城市轨道交通协会. 城市轨道交通2019年度统计和分析报告［R］. 北京：中国城市轨道交通协会， 2020. China Urban Rail Transit Association. 2019 Annual Statistical Analysis Report of China′s Urban Rail Transit ［R］. Beijing： China Urban Rail Transit Association， 2020.
19	宇恒可持续交通研究中心. 2016年中国城市轨道TOD发展指数报告［R］. 北京：宇恒可持续交通研究中心， 2017. doi:10.1007/s40864-017-0054-4 Yuheng Sustainable Transportation Research Center. 2016 China′s Urban Rail Transit TOD Development Index Report ［R］. Beijing： Yuheng Sustainable Transportation Research Center， 2017. doi:10.1007/s40864-017-0054-4 doi: 10.1007/s40864-017-0054-4

[1]	徐标,路庆昌,徐鹏程,崔欣,杜长皓. 考虑群体差异的低碳出行意向与行为一致性研究[J]. 浙江大学学报（理学版）, 2023, 50(3): 378-390.

Viewed

Full text

Abstract

Cited

Shared

Discussed